Source
r/baseball•
AthleteNormal

Corbin Burnes has the second best ERA among qualifiers despite a .308 BABIP. You need to go down to #11 (Cole, 3.02 ERA, .302 BABIP) to find anyone close and all the way to #25 (Eovaldi, 3.88 ERA, .325 BABIP) to find anyone with a higher batting average on balls in play.

Analysis
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=...
fangraphs.com

Posted Sep 28, 2021, 1:11 PM UTC

10614
LathunddMilwaukee Brewers :mil1:•

And that's somehow despite him being in the 94th percentile or better in all of Hard hit %, avg exit velocity, barrel %, xBA %. Basically, he's giving up less hard contact than almost anyone else, yet an above average amount of balls in play go for hits.

48
mechajlawKansas City Royals :kcr1:•

I'd bet the outside cutter really encourages slap hits which have a deceptively high BABIP for how hard they get hit.

27
southdakMilwaukee Brewers :mil1:•

I haven’t seen any analysis of the data, but based on watching, this is exactly what is happening.

3
trashboatfourtwentyMilwaukee Brewers :mil1:•

So many damn squibbers and infield hits for him and Woody this year

1
RandomHighGuyMontreal Expos :was4:•

His season should be being talked about way more than it is. I feel like people know that he's been really good, but don't realize just how good he's actually been.

He currently has a 1.56 FIP for the season, which would be the best FIP since Pedro Martinez in 1999 and overall the second best FIP for any season since 1910. He leads all of baseball in K% and HR/9, and is 4th in BB%. His K-BB% is currently the 8th best of all time. Scherzer is also having an incredible season, but in my opinion Burnes should be running away with the Cy Young award and it doesn't feel like he is. I wouldn't even be surprised if Scherzer ends up winning it.

40
kyleb402Milwaukee Brewers :mil1:•

The power of LA...

1
Schnitzel2kNew York Yankees :nyy1:•

Yeah having the second best single-season FIP of all time allows you to have some bad BABIP luck and still put up great ERA numbers

16
THEhiHIhi55Texas Rangers :tex1:•

What if this dude got lucky? What if his BABIP was .240 instead of .300? What ERA are we talking at this point, 1.2? 1.1?

1
Schnitzel2kNew York Yankees :nyy1:•

I don’t know if I’m just misunderstanding how you said it, but the formula for FIP actually doesn’t take into account any hits given up by the pitcher (aside from homers). Either way the point does stand that he’d have an ever more insane ERA if his BABIP was a quite bit lower

2
Trooper-35Oakland Athletics :oak3:•

FIP doesn’t factor in hits in any way, it only depends on HR allowed, BBs, and Ks.

1
Kevin-Garvey-1Atlanta Braves :atl1:•

I hope he wins the Cy Young, although I suspect Scherzer will win most of the traditional voters.

16
ThatNewSockFeelMilwaukee Brewers :mil3:•

Same tbh. The run he's had since the trade to LA is just too good of a story for a lot of Cy Young voters.

3
EquityDiversityMilwaukee Brewers :mil2:•

Makes sense. I distinctively remember at least two “bad” games he had where runs were put up basically in 1 inning when he’d give up 2-3 soft/bloop hits and then 1 hard hit.

2
ImBirdsMilwaukee Brewers :mil1:•

Corbin Burnes has a 1.5 FIP

1