r/CFB•5 yr. ago

With Michigan as slight road underdogs vs Wisconsin, a brief History of Harbaugh as an Underdog

History

With Michigan as a +1 underdog this weekend at Wisconsin, here's a brief history of Harbaugh as an underdog (and other close/big games) All stats from oddsshark.

Also just putting this out here, I'm personally still pro-Harbaugh. There's really only a handful programs that have a better span of 6 years than we have, which honestly I'm okay with

Michigan as underdog since 2015 (0-10 regular season, 0-1 post season, 3-8 ATS)

Year	Team	Spread (Mich)	Result
2015	NR @ Utah	+5	L 24-17 Utah
2015	#12 vs #8 Ohio State	+1	L 42-13 Ohio State
2016	#3 @ #2 Ohio State	+3.5	L 30-27 Ohio State (2OT)
2017	#19 @ #2 Penn State	+7.5	L 42-10 Penn State
2017	#24 @ #5 Wisconsin	+6.5	L 24-10 Wisc
2017	NR vs #8 Ohio State	+12.5	L 31-20 Ohio State
2019	#11 @ #13 Wisconsin	+3.5	L 35-14 Wisc
2019	#16 @ #7 Penn State	+7.5	L 28-21 Penn State
2019	#13 vs #1 Ohio State	+9	L 56-27 Ohio State
2019 Bowl	#14 vs #13 Alabama	+7.5	L 35-16 Alabama
2020	NR vs #13 Wisconsin	+7	L 49-11 Wisc

3 spread wins are 2016 OSU, 2017 OSU, ~~2017~~ 2019 PSU

Michigan as <5 point favorites since 2015 (5-4 regular season, 1-1 post season, ATS same as outright)

Year	Team	Spread (Mich)	Result
2015	#14 @ Penn State	-3.5	W 28-16 Michigan
2015 Bowl	#14 vs #19 Florida	-3.5	W 41-7 Michigan
2017	#11 @ #17 Florida (Neutral)	-4.5	W 33-17 Michigan
2018	#14 @ #11 Notre Dame	-3	L 24-17 Notre Dame
2018	#4 @ #10 Ohio State	-4.5	L 62-29 Ohio State (oof)
2018 Bowl	#8 vs #10 Florida	-4	L 41-15 Florida (double oof)
2019	#19 vs #14 Iowa	-4	W 10-3 Michigan
2019	#19 vs #8 Notre Dame	-1	W 45-14 Michigan
2020	#18 @ #21 Minnesota	-3	W 49-24 Michigan
2020	#23 @ #13 Indiana	-4	L 38-21 Indiana
2020	NR vs Penn State	-1	L 27-17 Penn State

Other Notable big games I remember that aren't listed above where Michigan was favored

Year	Team	Spread (Mich)	Result
2015	#12 vs #8 Michigan State	-7	L 27-23 Michigan State (Trouble with the snap)
2016	#4 vs #8 Wisconsin	-11.5	W 14-7 Michigan

Posted Sep 29, 2021, 7:30 PM UTC · edited

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BigBoutros:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

fun!

AsianheadOP:michigan: :oregon: Michigan • Oregon•5 yr. ago

Notable records as underdogs in the same time period

Notre Dame: 3-10
Ohio State: 4-2
Michigan State: 12-17
Penn State: 5-13
Wisconsin: 6-8
Alabama: 1-0 (2015 #13 @ #8 Georgia, 1 point underdog, won 38-10)
Oklahoma: 3-4
Clemson: 5-3
Georgia: 4-7

Alex_butler:wisconsin: :chaos: Wisconsin • Team Chaos•5 yr. ago

Alabama has played one game as an underdog since Harbaugh? 😭

BCNBammer:alabama: :summertimelover: Alabama • Summertime Lover•5 yr. ago

I think that was the only game Alabama was an underdog in the whole decade

UnknownVariation:georgia: Georgia•5 yr. ago

Bama never should’ve been an underdog to us.

God, that game sucked.

helloisforhorses:notredame: Notre Dame•5 yr. ago

This is good context. Most teams lose most games as underdogs. If they didn’t vegas would be hemorrhaging money

The_Homie_J:michigan: :ohio: Michigan • Ohio•5 yr. ago

This is why I shrug when people say he never wins as an underdog. Nobody regularly wins as an underdog (maybe Sparty has a decent argument)

[deleted]•5 yr. ago

[deleted]

TBaumcox:michiganstate: Michigan State•5 yr. ago

I know it shouldn't shock me but that's a seems like a crazy amount of games MSU has played as an underdog

skyeliam:michigan: :rutgers: Michigan • Rutgers•5 yr. ago

You guys have had higher highs and lower lows than Michigan in the last 6 seasons. From a playoff run in 2015 to whatever the hell that 2016 seasons was. Combined with how often you play opponents close (7 single score games in 2015, 4 in 2016, 5 in 2017, 6 in 2018… whereas Michigan had 4 in 2015, 4 in 2016, 2 in 2017, 2 in 2018); I think y’all are just hard to place.

Gillkid615:virginia: :jamesmadison: Virginia • James Madison•5 yr. ago

I wish I couldve bet football in 2015 lmao

estDivisionChamps:wisconsin: Wisconsin•5 yr. ago

If Mertz and company (that means you offensive line) could just do the basics like block the DT, properly snap the ball, and hand the ball off. We should be in good shape. Thus far these have proved Everests for our offense.

ValarMorcoolis:michiganstate: Michigan State•5 yr. ago

Exactly. They need to rush like they’re Michigan.

estDivisionChamps:wisconsin: Wisconsin•5 yr. ago

It’s so easy to convince ourselves (me just me) that we can clean up these things and our offense can at least return to 2017 levels. Which includes HorniMertz throwing a dumb pick every game.

Edit: hmmm I wonder how good Mertz is going to look against Miami in the bowl game?

[deleted]•5 yr. ago

You must’ve missed our dynamic rushing attack last week against Rutgers.

buttgers:rutgers: :cheer: Rutgers • Cheer•5 yr. ago

Rutgers gave you guys a blueprint on what to do against UM. We fucked up that red zone series and sputtered to a loss, but man our second half against Michigan was mostly fantastic football.

MoonSafarian:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

Against M’s defense, Rutgers was running a lot of spread option stuff that worked really well. I don’t see Wisconsin adding that to the playbook on the fly.

BigPoppaPuff:illinois: Illinois•5 yr. ago

Wasn't he the coach when Stanford was a 31 point dog to USC?

BigBoutros:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

41 and yes

AsianheadOP:michigan: :oregon: Michigan • Oregon•5 yr. ago

Yup. The title of this should really be "Harbaugh at Michigan"

wolverine1819:michigan2: Michigan•5 yr. ago

Yup lol

Worlds-Largest-Sloth:wisconsin: :wisconsinwhitewater: Wisconsin • Wisconsin-Whi…•5 yr. ago

I honestly don’t understand how someone can watch Wisconsin and Michigan play this season and have the Badgers as the favorites

PM_ME_YOUR_CATS_PAWS:michiganstate: :utah: Michigan State • Utah•5 yr. ago

You know what I have as the favorite? A barn burning under.

So don’t fuck it up and go dairy raid again

mostdope28:michigan: :littlebrownjug: Michigan • Little Brown Jug•5 yr. ago

I’d just like to coast to a nice easy 17 point victory never sweating or on the edge of my seat.

estDivisionChamps:wisconsin: Wisconsin•5 yr. ago

Don’t kid yourself. Mertz ripping Michigan like he did Illinois would be worth the money lost.

PM_ME_YOUR_CATS_PAWS:michiganstate: :utah: Michigan State • Utah•5 yr. ago

It is only like two parlays

And we all enjoy a Michigan embarrassment

Come on Mertz!

Alternatively we could all win with a 44-0 UW victory Led by 5 Mertz passing touchdowns

-1†

Alex_butler:wisconsin: :chaos: Wisconsin • Team Chaos•5 yr. ago

We have a top ten defense and we’re at home in a toss up game that’s why they gave us the points. We also have the hardest strength of schedule in the country.

Don’t agree with it, but that’s the reason why

not4u1866:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

I get Wisconsin is statistically the #1 ranked D against the run, but haven't they played one less game than majority of teams? Not saying they don't have a good D, but is it really that amazing?

-1†

estDivisionChamps:wisconsin: Wisconsin•5 yr. ago

Notre Dame had 9 rushing yards.

On a yards per an attempt basis we lead everyone with 1.01 ypa. For context Georgia is giving up 2.18 ypa.

On a per a game basis we are giving up 23 ypg. Next best is San Diego State 46 ypg. Georgia is 6th with 66 ypg.

If anything you could argue our numbers worse than they should be because we played 2 top ten opponents.

not4u1866:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

You could say that but then you'd also have to go the other way and say your offensive numbers should also be worse

0†

Alex_butler:wisconsin: :chaos: Wisconsin • Team Chaos•5 yr. ago

I mean we had the #1 ranked run D for the entire season last year and we returned 8 starters from that group. A top 5 scoring defense last year despite our offense being terrible. Our Dline arguably improved from last year and everything else stayed the same. Swing it however you want. On a yards per attempt basis we’re still the top. Take sacks out of the rushing total, we’re still the top. One less game but the next closest team to us is 115 more yards rushing given up than us. We haven’t given up that many rush yards in a game in years so we’d still be top. It’s not like Kyren Williams and Noah Cain are shabby backs either.

not4u1866:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

penn state and notre dame also havent had any good rushing games all year. Including their matchups vs Wisconsin

[deleted]•5 yr. ago

We’re giving up 25 rush yards per game. ND basically gave up on the run against us. And 2/3 opponents were quality teams (ND and PSU)

It’s the turnover and pick-6s that are crushing us. Defense is only giving up 12 pts per game and seems to be able to handle the run w/o stacking the box much. Even passing, 17 of ND’s 20 pts against the defense were off of field flipping turnovers.

Have no illusions about Mertz turning things around though. Although the optimist in me wants to say being on pace for 12 pick 6s in the regular season is just unsustainably bad lol

[deleted]•5 yr. ago

[deleted]

Flioxan:notredame2: :indep: Notre Dame • FBS Independents•5 yr. ago

It was 10-10 when the 4th started

[deleted]•5 yr. ago

[deleted]

Flioxan:notredame2: :indep: Notre Dame • FBS Independents•5 yr. ago

Leading by 3 for one play? It was 17-13 13 seconds later

-7

ZeldaFanBoi1988:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

That means you haven't watched enough of our games

shitpostcastigator:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

Don’t try your tricky reverse psychology tactics with us buddy! JK, hoping for a good game!

Sure_Wonder4029•5 yr. ago

Watch Cade McNamara vs Wahington. 7-15 for 44 yds. 1 pass went for 33 yards. So, 6-14 for 11 yds.

Force McNamara to beat you-- he can't. Michigan doesn't have the skill players ND has at RB, WR, TE, or special teams. I think Wisconsin wins comfortably. There's still a lot of football left for Wisconsin in terms of achievable goals.

1†

shitfam:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

Michigan doesn’t have better running backs than notre dame?

FortitudoMultis:ohiostate: :cincinnati: Ohio State • Cincinnati•5 yr. ago

I think that’s honestly the most damming indictment of Harbaugh at Michigan.

He sometimes loses the games he’s supposed to win, but never wins the games he’s to supposed to lose.

I don’t think that’s a fireable offense, but you have to keep it in mind when taking stock of his tenure.

Hooch_Pandersnatch:ohiostate: Ohio State•5 yr. ago

Dude what is that flair combo

phonemannn:michiganstate: :michigan3: Michigan State • Michigan•5 yr. ago

Yeah wtf

ZeldaFanBoi1988:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

Please explain your flairs

shitpostcastigator:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

He wins games he’s supposed to lose, it’s just people write them off when that team eventually becomes unranked. Harbaugh is far from perfect, and makes questionable decisions but in his defense, the goalposts used to determine his success as Michigan’s coach are always shifting based on the narrative someone is trying to create.

Payed_Looser:neworleans: :southernmiss: New Orleans • Southern Miss•5 yr. ago

Final rankings are the only ones that matter

shitpostcastigator:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

J4ckiebrown:pennstate2: :psac: Penn State • PSAC•5 yr. ago

So don't bet on Michigan to cover if they are underdogs.

Got it.

[deleted]•5 yr. ago

[deleted]

Gbchris12:michigan: :cfp: Michigan • College Football Playoff•5 yr. ago

The line has been moving all week, we were -1 at one point.

AsianheadOP:michigan: :oregon: Michigan • Oregon•5 yr. ago

Wouldn't be surprised if it closes with us at -1, and we win and preserve the streak. Or if it closes with Wisconsin -1, we lose and still preserve the streak

mostdope28:michigan: :littlebrownjug: Michigan • Little Brown Jug•5 yr. ago

The only thing that’s for sure is I’ll be drinking at 9am

GoGreeb:michiganstate: :colorado: Michigan State • Colorado•5 yr. ago

good wolverine

Medium_Medium:michiganstate: :paulbunyan: Michigan State • Paul Bunyan T…•5 yr. ago

I kinda feel like there shouldn't be an "underdog" if the line is bouncing around below a field goal. At that point it's clear everyone thinks the game is a toss up.

JkAmbabo:michiganstate: :brick: Michigan State • /r/CFB Brickmason•5 yr. ago

MSU and OSU flairs in this thread

crg2000:michigan: :toledo: Michigan • Toledo•5 yr. ago

I'm ready to be hurt again.

TexasNightmare210:texas: :utsa: Texas • UTSA•5 yr. ago

Feels like a must win for Harbaugh

LeakyNalgene:michigan4: :thegame: Michigan • The Game•5 yr. ago

They all do to an extent when your coach feels like the most talked about and he’s “underachieved” to this extent

15BigTuna:rcfb: /r/CFB•5 yr. ago

I personally don’t feel like he’s underachieved.

This analysis sums him up perfectly, he wins most of the games he should and none that he shouldn’t.

Rotishery:michigan3: Michigan•5 yr. ago

Harbaughs teams turtle pretty fucking bad when they get hit in the mouth

I don’t think I’ve ever seen him successfully make an in game adjustment once they’re trailing

Smidgens:michigan: :williammary: Michigan • William & Mary•5 yr. ago

2018 Northwestern is probably the only one but to be honest I don't really remember what changed. I was at the game!

scrotes_magotes:michigan: :chaos: Michigan • Team Chaos•5 yr. ago

I’d include 2019 Penn State as probably the best example. Game looked like it would get out of hand early and they adjusted and battled back and were a dropped TD away from probably going to OT. Gattis and Harbaugh found an offensive rhythm the second half and carried it through to the next 4 games, including dominating wins over ND and MSU in that stretch. Then the season abruptly ended the week before Thanksgiving and nothing memorable happened after that…

BabyBoiTHOThrasher69:notredame2: :williammary: Notre Dame • William & Mary•5 yr. ago

Hm, that’s weird, I don’t remember playing Michigan in 2019. Are you sure you aren’t misremembering the time we won 24-17?

your-mom--:michigan: :defiance: Michigan • Defiance•5 yr. ago

No we're talking about the last game we played before the Irish dipped out of the annual fun where Brian Kelly was not just sad but also soaking wet

LionsAndLonghorns:pennstate: :texas: Penn State • Texas•5 yr. ago

you guys were a dropped pass from coming back against us 2 years ago after being down 21-7 at the half

UnknownVariation:georgia: Georgia•5 yr. ago

This is bleak.

Sennotson17:michigan: :grandvalleystate: Michigan • Grand Valley State•5 yr. ago

Title of Jim Harbaugh's memoir

rahrahgagaga:wisconsin: Wisconsin•5 yr. ago

Word on the street is that Mertz might eventually one day become really good.

We are gonna lose. 41-13

Wagnerous:michigan: :paulbunyan: Michigan • Paul Bunyan Trophy•5 yr. ago

Nephew.

Delete this.

johnnyg68:michigan: :texas: Michigan • Texas•5 yr. ago

UM can only run (not pass)

UW has the #1 run defense

Q.E.D. UW will win

KiratheSilent:florida3: :chaos: Florida • Team Chaos•5 yr. ago

This doesn't include his Stanford stats and (understandably) the 49ers stats

Urbanviking1:paperbag: :wisconsin: Paper Bag • Wisconsin•5 yr. ago

Michigan as underdogs?

You seem to forget that Mertz is our QB.

shitpostcastigator:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

And Cade is ours. He’s okay at best but he was nearly a liability against Rutgers last weekend, and it was a home game. It sounds like we have ourselves an old fashioned QB suck-off 😏

grantdotyea:ohiostate2: :battleofi75: Ohio State • Battle of I-75•5 yr. ago

I don’t know anything about dogs but I’m pretty sure there’s gonna be 700 rushing yards this game

MilkBarPatron:salad: Salad Bowl•5 yr. ago

Wisconsin has given up 50, 16, and 9 rushing yards against Penn State, EMU, and Notre Dame respectively.

grantdotyea:ohiostate2: :battleofi75: Ohio State • Battle of I-75•5 yr. ago

Holy shit is this best rushing defense against best rushing offense? I haven’t watched UM at all yet but I am interested to see how their passing game looks so I guess this will be when they’ll have to bring it out

Keyblade_Yoshi:michiganstate: :ohiostate: Michigan State • Ohio State•5 yr. ago

Rutgers was able to contain Michigan’s rushing attack for the most part. They will have to throw the ball to beat Wisconsin.

grantdotyea:ohiostate2: :battleofi75: Ohio State • Battle of I-75•5 yr. ago

Are you telling me they aren’t going to beat wiscy? Please tell me that means they’re not going to beat wiscy

MilkBarPatron:salad: Salad Bowl•5 yr. ago

Probably not. Last week's game against Rutgers made it look like calling Michigan the "best rushing offense" is a lot of fool's gold.

tsitsipas_yoda:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

I actually have a good feeling about this game. Everyone thinks Wisconsin is going to whack us. Love being in this position

[deleted]•5 yr. ago

Nobody thinks this lol

tsitsipas_yoda:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

Literally everyone I’ve seen pick the same has taken Wisconsin lol

RheagarTargaryen:michiganstate: Michigan State•5 yr. ago

I think more people have Michigan winning this game. Wisconsin has looked awful on offense all year and Michigan has a defense.

tsitsipas_yoda:michigan: Michigan•5 yr. ago

I disagree, but maybe it’s closer than I’m making it out to be.

Almost everyone I’ve seen is favoring Wisconsin. Michigan opened as a favorite, but by Monday night it flipped. Now Wisconsin is favored by over 2 points, so it seems like they have the momentum.

More interesting (at least to me) is our entire fanbase almost thinks we’re going to get beat and isn’t confident. They have the last 2 games against the Badgers ingrained in their heads. They were both nightmares. I don’t think the public forgot about those games.

I’m not super confident or anything. I just have a good feeling about the game and think Harbaugh will have a great gameplan

Btw, I love your username. And most of my family went to state. I don’t hate y’all lol