Cooling Portland area home prices: Median sale price drops $15,000 in a month
oregonlive.com/realestate/2021/10/cooling-por...
oregonlive.comPosted Oct 22, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC
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oregonlive.comNobody wants to buy rain-sodden old moldy houses for 800 grand on tiny unmaintained lots with 50 grand in repairs needed?! You don't say....
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Nobody wants to buy rain-sodden old moldy houses for 800 grand on tiny unmaintained lots with 50 grand in repairs needed?! You don't say....
We don't! We'll take it for $790,000.
20
You forgot being surrounded by tweakers living in stolen cars.
2
Buy before the fed raises interest rates. It’s going to get worse! We aren’t building our way out of this….also inflation, migration, etc. you think we are a mess? Look at Seattle and SF. We are still affordable for the time being. Those looking for a crash are going to be sad when they are permanently priced out from home ownership
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Yeah, every time I read that the housing market is going to collapse due to all the problems going on, I think about how San Francisco has visibly faced all of the same issues at a larger scale and years earlier, and yet even as the city with probably the highest share working from home and therefore easy to leave, they still haven't had a major sustained price turndown. Prices can get much worse here.
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I agree, and while I love it here and call it home I'm not sold on buying. Prices can go up, but I'm not sure I want to be locked into them if I'm not going to stick around.
I don't plan on moving, but it's nice to be able to.
2
This was my mentality when I moved here in 2010 and I ended up waiting to buy until 2015. I'm selling now though, I'd rather live in a tent than keep paying this massive mortgage.
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Any chance we could add a 0 to the end of that number? I'd be much appreciated.
14†
Seriously. $15,000.00 means what, houses are now going for only 24% over asking instead of 25%?
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A ~30% housing value decrease would be disastrous for the local tax base. Schools, roads maintenance, etc. would be forced to make drastic cuts. It would also likely create high unemployment, lending would grind to a halt, and everything else that goes with economic recessions.
Like it or not, the housing market is intertwined with the broader economy, and a crash can not exist in a vacuum.
During a crash Catz, it won't be working class getting sick deals on real estate, it'd be a lot of working class people unemployed while wealthy with stacks of cash further bolster their portfolios.
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Given the massive difference between assessed and market value for most homes, do you think tax receipts would even change?
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Nope. Assessed value would keep increasing. Just like in 2008.
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It would change on new homes where assessed value = market value
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Sure, but given over 90% of our housing stock predates 2000, I don't think it would be catastrophic for the county.
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Given the massive difference between assessed and market value for most homes
It's not that massive anymore. Multnomah Co has been aggressively raising assessed values lately. Maybe it was was true 10 years ago (I wasn't here) but nowadays you don't see so those huge variances nearly as much. Heaven forbid you pull a permit, and suddenly your value is close to the Zillow numbers.
-2
Looking it up it seems that would land us about where we were in 2015.
Maybe it's just me, but I don't remember it being that terrible in 2015.
But in the end, you just described the overall problem with capitalism as a system, so I get it.
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Are you hoping for an economic crash, or 30% deflation?
If the economy crashes, we'll all be in a world of hurt. If we see major deflation, the winners will be those who have large piles of cash.
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see major deflation
I don't think there is ANY danger of that right now. Inflation is currently x2 pre-covid and 70's era stagflation is likely based on most analysis right now. Even the White House budget office is predicting very little to no growth until 2030 as the trillions in stimulus unwinds through the economy. That's even before we double-down a 3rd time with the latest 3.5 trillion spending package.
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I don't think there is ANY danger of that right now.
There's not much chance of home prices dropping 30% either
1
I don't know. Covid is going to fundamentally change a good percentage of work and jobs. Many jobs are going to be fully remote from now on - like mine. I'm VERY MUCH looking to leave urban downtown and move someplace I can buy some land away from the constantly increasing cost of living and deteriorating living conditions (crime, yearly increases in riots in urban centers across the country, shootings, ever increasing taxes, etc).
Why live in that when I can live anywhere I want? I can own 5-10x the house and land I can own in Portland. This is what is actually predicted and happening. Urban centers are starting to see people leaving while suburbs and surrounding areas are staying hot. People have learned they can simplify and be happier. I don't need all the rat race and trappings to be happy.
0†
Short term there’s no deflation risk, it’s true. But as you said, forecasts for the rest of the decade include fairly tepid growth, with real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2024-25 and 1.6% in 2026-31 per the CBO. With those numbers a return to a low-inflation environment consistent with “secular stagnation” is not at all unlikely.
Basically we’ve got some fiscal firepower still flowing through our veins at the same time that pandemic-related supply constrains are still with us (including strange constrains on labor supply growth). I don’t think anyone can say with confidence that we won’t continue to see above-target inflation for a time, but there’s very little pointing us in the direction of 70s stagflation. Not that we should be too cavalier about it, but right now very few forecasters see that as a possibility.
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It's a troll account
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I'm hoping that housing prices drop to the point where I can maybe afford to have a house in my hometown one day.
-6†
The question then is, if the economy dives that much, would you still have a job to afford a house anyway?
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Yeah, whenever people say that I find it … odd. A massive decline in housing prices would signal a large economic downturn that could very well claim your job. Or the jobs of friends or family that you love. A lot of Americans, even ones who already own homes, don’t have a lot of savings, either, so their homes represent a lot of what wealth they may have. It … probably wouldn’t be a good thing.
Don’t get me wrong, emotionally I understand it, but it would auger very poorly, and if you can’t afford a home now you probably wouldn’t be magically spared from the fallout of a large economic depression such that you could pick up an inner SE craftsman.
The optimal scenario would be for home prices to, like, plateau. Or grow a modest pace that doesn’t leave everyone behind. Possibly we’re moving in that direction, but who knows? In the early days of the pandemic I thought for sure we were staring down an inevitable cratering of property prices, and that very much did not happen.
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Welcome to the trailer park. I'll be there too.
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0
You can absolutely achieve that by saving aggressively, sticking to a basic financial plan, and (if possible) improving your top line numbers. In other words, live so the math is in your favor.
Can I ask what (besides the price) is currently holding you back from homeownership? I'd be happy to offer some ideas, here or in the DM, that might help you get there more quickly.
-11†
Saving isn't really the problem these days. If you make $15/hour, have $70,000 saved for a 20% down payment on an "affordable" $350,000 home, you're still never going to find a mortgage company that finance you for a $280,000 mortgage, which would have an estimated monthly payment of $1,500, while you're only making $2,400/month. You would actually need to make more like $35/hour, with no other debt to qualify. ... Unless I'm totally wrong. In that case, please send me info for that mortgage company.
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Yeah, I get the basic "save more spend less" but with income vs expenses and debt, building a substantial savings isn't in the cards at the moment.
Can I ask what (besides the price) is currently holding you back from homeownership?
Nothing besides the price!
I'd be happy to offer some ideas, here or in the DM, that might help you get there more quickly.
Do you know a way to get a ton of money quickly? If so you should be spreading that info everywhere!
3†
What's the best solution? Raise wages or lower prices? Or both?
I say housing and healthcare should be basic human rights.
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Mostly need to have supply increase imo. Increase density and continue to expand outwards.
I suspect that higher wages won't change it as much since housing is way less elastic than most consumer goods. If everyone earns more the price of homes will probably just go up since there is a relatively fixed supply unlike a bag of chips where companies compete against each other to make more/cheaper products.
I am not an economist by any stretch though so consume with NaCl
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1
Clearly working according to plan
reddit.com/r/ShittyLifeProTips/comments/nxn8nv/slpt_how_to_keep_the_rent_low_in_your_neighborhood/
1
So, a combination of the seasonal dip and the alarmingly high amount of reported shootings lately?
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1
Just in time for me to list my house.
1
We recently bought a house (right during this most recent seasonal dip) and it was actually really funny to see people get so cocky with their prices, only for them to all lower their prices every 4 days if they didn’t get any offers.
1
Because everyone is moving out of Portland... either to be in Beaverton or across the bridge.
-4†
I hope so
1
Just back to the normal seasonal dip. Last year the dip never happened with the craziness, but wouldn't expect that to happen regularly since that just isn't healthy for anyone.
Next spring will be the most telling time. If the price stays level, I think is the best buyers could ask for.
I wish sellers would realize that. I’ve been the only offer on three houses and I offered asking price every time. One countered with 20k over asking, and the other too were nightmares in other ways. Just cause the sellers didn’t realize there’s a seasonal dip going on.
I am not sure I understand. Are you saying you offered them what they were asking and they went "Changed my mind I want 20K more?" This kind of behavior would sure make the check out line chaotic.
Kinda yeah. We offered 10k over to show we were serious and loved the house. And we were the only offer. The seller countered with 20k over asking instead. So we fucked off from that one.
Wow I didn’t know that was even possible for a seller to do.
Was this house in SE, by any chance?
it's a sellers market so you can ask for something and expect to get offers over it, but the market usually cools in fall winter anyway, last year was an exemption with ultralow rates and, other things.
they were probably actually looking for $X and asked for $X-Y expecting people would offer $Y because that's what has been happening for a year and a hlf
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But they asked for a price and you said you'd give the price. Wtf.