Redistricting Recap Episode 1: Oregon

This is going to be a 44-part series covering the 44 states doing congressional redistricting.

I will provide a few details for each district. The districts will be rated to least to most competitive (by my predictions). I will provide before and after rankings for each district based on partisan lean and incumbency. (To simplify this, I will only use safe, lean, and tossup rankings.) Oregon was the first to finish, so I will cover it first. I'm hoping to be caught up sometime in December.

The partisan lean is my own calculation. 60% is based on the 2020 vote relative to the nation, while 40% is the same for 2016.

In case you are curious:

AK-AL: R+15.6

DE-AL: D+12.5

ND-AL: R+38.2

SD-AL: R+31.1

VT-AL: D+28.4

WY-AL: R+48.6

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Overall, Oregon is a Democratic gerrymander. The map is 5-1, meaning it gives Democrats one extra seat above a proportional map. Still, this is far from the worst gerrymander we'll be seeing in this series.

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#6 OR-3

Incumbent: Earl Blumenauer (D)

Predecessor: OR-3 (Safe D)

Lean: D+42.2

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Portland

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#5 OR-1

Incumbent: Suzanne Bonamici (D)

Predecessor: OR-1 (Safe D)

Lean: D+33.1

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Northwest Oregon

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#4 OR-2

Incumbent: Cliff Bentz (R)

Predecessor: OR-2 (Safe R)

Lean: R+29.3

Ranking: Safe R

Location: East Oregon

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#3 OR-4

Incumbent: Peter DeFazio (D)

Predecessor: OR-4 (Tossup)

Lean: D+7.3

Ranking: Safe D

Location: Southwest Oregon

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#2 OR-6

Incumbent: None

Predecessor: OR-5 (Lean D)

Lean: D+7.1

Ranking: Lean D

Location: Southwest Portland Suburbs

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#1 OR-5

Incumbent: Kurt Schrader (D)

Predecessor: None

Lean: D+3.0

Ranking: Lean D

Location: Central Oregon

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Net change: +1 Safe D, +1 Lean D, -1 Tossup

Running Total: +1 Safe D, +1 Lean D, -1 Tossup

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If you see an error in one of these posts, please let me know. I'll issue a correction.