Western Sanctions on Belarus’s Potash Industry Test Beijing-Minsk Partnership
jamestown.org/program/western-sanctions-on-be...
jamestown.orgPosted Nov 10, 2021, 6:01 AM UTC
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jamestown.orgAs a land locked country wedged between two powerful political blocks (EU and Russia), Belarus has tried to balance its neighbours with improving Chinese relations. This article describes how those relations are strained because Belarus strained its relation with some of its neighbours. Taken from a zero sum perspective this does not make sense. Belarus and Lithuania stand to lose revenue, Russia's transport sector stands to gain a bit and China will have to pay more for the same amount of potash.
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Russia is just a country, not really a political block.
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No they don't. Your very statement provides the logic for the same contradiction. If you can't be a liberal and support non-liberal regimes against liberal regimes, than you can't be an anti-imperialist and support imperialist regimes like the US, France, Australia and to a lesser extent Canada against China, and the others. They too have imperialist moves, but to a much lesser extent.
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To a much lesser extent? I'm curious, how do you gauge the extent of imperialism to make that statement? Surely by most measures the United States' imperialism stretches across the entire Western Hemisphere, not to speak of its widespread military footprint across the globe.
Edit: Would you not agree that US state power has been used over decades to "extend political and economic access, power and control, often through employing hard power, especially military force, but also soft power?"
How would you compare that to the Chinese case?
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Yes I agree, that's why I said to a lesser extent Canada, which has also been imperialistic with its mining companies but just less than the rest of the western bloc.
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I'm curious, how do you gauge the extent of imperialism to make that statement?
The amount of sovereignty of the imperialised states. Lets take Europe after the second war for example. Three imperial states divided the conquered lands. How much sovereignty was left in Hungary by the Soviet Union in comparison to France?
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SS: This article from The Jamestown Foundation discusses China freezing release of loan credits for a large potash mining and processing project in Belarus due to EU sanctions. The project is owned by Russian oligarch Mikhail Gutseriyev who is also under sanctions.
The article explains that China relies on the import of potash as fertiliser for the agricultural industry. This is important for food security. China is set to get 25-years exclusive rights to purchase potash from this project which is due to start production in 2022.
What is interesting geopolitically is currently the trade route for potash needs to go through Lithuania port. With recent migrant crisis between Belarus and Lithuania, and spat between China and Lithuania on Taiwan, Belarus may be forced to reroute the shipment to Russia like they are doing with oil export. But an infrastructure upgrade is needed for that to happen. Belarus also recently signed a pact with Russia for closer economic integration.
Lithuania should keep the tariffs for moving potash so the cost is still lower than the land route. They can always ramp them up if China misbehaves.
Lithuania doesn't have a sovereign trade policy.
Ok it's the EU that has that leverage. Perhaps instead of tariffs I should have said costs. For example taxes, they do have a so sovereign tax system.
That's pretty undesirable
I knew joining the EU involved some sacrifice; but always aware it was that crazy.
Not EU per se, just the custom union. For example Turkey is also in the custom union but not in the EU.
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Your comment - “With recent migrant crisis between Belarus and Lithuania” is interesting … is Belarus purposefully released less desired migrants into Lithuania? What is the story here? Do the Belorussians show they have migrants stopping in Belarus? Thx.
Yeah, that’s more than that. Belarus is flying the migrants to their country from the Middle East and then more or less forcefully trying to make them pass the border between Belarus and Poland and Lithuania. Without active participation of the Belarus government there would be no migrant crisis there, it’s not like the migrants go there by land or water like on the other routes.
Is this documented as certainly true? Very pernicious. What do you think is a solution ans how can nasty human-trafficking actions be held to account?
There is actually a lot of video evidence, including lives made by migrants, bless the smartphone era. No one really has any doubts about the situation:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement\_21\_5867
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-flies-nuclear-capable-bombers-over-belarus-migrant-crisis-escalates-2021-11-10/
https://www.bbc.com/news/59233244
As for the solution, bigger sanctions should definitely be implemented. Belarusian economy is very weak as it stands and the EU stands for 20% of their export. Sanctioning all the airlines that fly to the Belarus should also help.
But I'm not sure what the end goal of Lukashenko is, why he is doing that. Is it a revenge for Poland's and Lithuania's help for the opposition last year? Desire to move Russian troops to the border with the West? I honestly have no idea, that's what scares me.