the likelihood of the roc peacefully joining with the prc via economic dominance

i've often heard that once the prc's economy is large and strong enough, the roc would eventually willingly join. i haven't been convinced. the trend has been just the opposite - as the prc's economy has grown, the roc has become more and more pro-independence than ever before.

u/WheelCee summed it up in a comment, which i will share here.

I want to dispel this notion of "economic reunification". There is no possibility of reunification with Taiwan without force, or at least the threat of force. None. Let that sink in.

There is a common belief that as China grows in economic power, the people of Taiwan will just voluntarily want to reunify with their motherland. What does the evidence say? As China has grown economically, Taiwanese have become more and more anti-China, especially the younger generation which will shape the future of Taiwanese politics. 72% of Taiwanese under 40 voted for Tsai in the last election.

Let's take a look at Taiwanese celebrities, Dee Hsu for example. These people love to make money off China's growing economy, but they support Taiwan as a separate country. How will China economically reunify people like her? All banning her from the mainland will do is make sure other celebrities are more discreet about their public opinions, while still making money off the mainland and secretly voting for people like Tsai. Every celebrity like her represents millions of Taiwanese fans who support her and think like she does.

To dispel this notion of economic reunification once and for all, let's take a look at Mongolia, which was part of China during the Qing dynasty. Mongolia's GDP per capita is about $4050, China's is about $8400, more than double Mongolia's. 88% of Mongolia's trade is with China, far exceeding Taiwan's 26%. Are Mongolians clamoring to be reunified with China?

Let's say China threatens to ban all trade with Taiwan unless they agree to reunify. How well have the pineapple and apple bans worked so far? Has the Taiwanese position on reunification budged at all due to these bans? All a total ban will accomplish is drive Taiwan to further diversify its export markets. It won't change their mind on reunification.

Peaceful reunification still has a chance, but it has to be backed up with the threat of force. There is no other way. That is the cold hard reality.

the threat of force, as it has been for all of human history, will be necessary. and as difficult as it may be for some to admit, a military invasion of tw is not yet in the prc's favour.