Pre-Battle of Ice: Showdown at the Tree

A situation that is seemingly going to happen very quickly in TWoW gets rather little discussion (imo at least) as compared to other very early plotlines is the showdown at the weirwood tree in the Crofter's Village that will likely take place immediately after Theon I, TWOW.

Background

Stannis Baratheon sits snowed in at the Crofter's Village, three days ride from Winterfell:

Up until this point, during the march there have been no burnings (due to Stannis' worry about the differing religions of his supporters:

"Half my army is made up of unbelievers," Stannis had replied. "I will have no burnings. Pray harder."

No burnings today, and none tomorrow … but if the snows continue, how long before the king's resolve begins to weaken? Asha had never shared her uncle Aeron's faith in the Drowned God, but that night she prayed as fervently to He Who Dwells Beneath the Waves as ever the Damphair had. The storm did not abate. The march continued, slowing to a stagger, then a crawl. Five miles was a good day. Then three. Then two.

but as we know from TWOW, Theon I not only has Stannis found out about the Karstark's treachery and condemned them to death, but also that the rest of the northmen are demanding Theon's death:

Lord Wull seeks audience as well. He wants—”

“I know what he wants.” The king indicated Theon. “Him. Wull wants him dead. Flint, Norrey… all of them will want him dead. For the boys he slew. Vengeance for their precious Ned.”

“Will you oblige them?”

“Just now, the turncloak is more use to me alive. He has knowledge we may need.

and after Stannis takes the Karstarks captive outside of the tower we have a situation growing:

If it please Your Grace, though, the men are growing anxious. There are hundreds of them gathered around the tower, wondering what’s happened. Talk of treason is on every lip. No one knows who to trust, or who might be arrested next. The northmen especially—”

before Stannis is "told" to give Theon to the "tree":

"Then do the deed yourself, Your Grace." The chill in Asha's voice made Theon shiver in his chains. "Take him out across the lake to the islet where the weirwood grows, and strike his head off with that sorcerous sword you bear. That is how Eddard Stark would have done it. Theon slew Lord Eddard's sons. Give him to Lord Eddard's gods. The old gods of the north. Give him to the tree."

And suddenly there came a wild thumping, as the maester's ravens hopped and flapped inside their cages, their black feathers flying as they beat against the bars with loud and raucous caws. "The tree," one squawked, "the tree, the tree," whilst the second screamed only, "Theon, Theon, Theon."-TWOW, Theon I

The Situation

Stannis has a situation growing on his hands with the northmen outside the tower wanting:

• Theon's Death
• Confirmation that Stannis isn't against the North

and Asha provides him the solution for that. Instead of burning Theon, instead execute him in front of the heart tree.

So I assume after a short discussion with Wull/Flint:

“I need to talk with them. Is Wull still waiting?”

“Him and Artos Flint. Will you see them?”

that we have Stannis (w/Lightbringer) taking Theon out in front of the weirwood to execute him as Asha mentions:

"Take him out across the lake to the islet where the weirwood grows, and strike his head off with that sorcerous sword you bear. That is how Eddard Stark would have done it. Theon slew Lord Eddard's sons. Give him to Lord Eddard's gods. The old gods of the north. Give him to the tree."

and that there is going to be a massive crowd watching:

There are hundreds of them gathered around the tower, wondering what’s happened.

and this is about Asha but it fits:

Suggs pressed his face so close to hers that she could count the blackheads on his nose and said, “The crowd will be even bigger when it’s you squirming on a stake.”

He was not wrong. The wolves did not love her; she was ironborn and must answer for the crimes of her people, for Moat Cailin and Deepwood Motte and Torrhen’s Square, for centuries of reaving along the stony shore, for all Theon did at Winterfell.

and my logic is that Stannis is doing this solely to placate his northern followers and he really isn't expecting any "magical" intervention, but what Stannis doesn't know (and the reader does) is that Bran/Bloodraven have access to any weirwood/heart tree.

If interested: Accessible Weirwood/Heart Trees

The Intervention

The thought is that Bran and/or Bloodraven will intervene and show Stannis/the Northmen, etc. that Theon actually didn't kill Bran/Rickon.

But remember this is a dark, dark book and since we have two POVs in the same location, the potential for an actual sacrifice does still exist. The Asha fragment rules out Asha (or does it, her last chapter in ADWD is called the Sacrifice...) and that only leaves Theon...

but as I mentioned I think the tree "saves" Theon as it has reached out to him in the past:

Theon found himself wondering if he should say a prayer. Will the old gods hear me if I do? They were not his gods, had never been his gods. He was ironborn, a son of Pyke, his god was the Drowned God of the islands … but Winterfell was long leagues from the sea. It had been a lifetime since any god had heard him. He did not know who he was, or what he was, why he was still alive, why he had ever been born.

"Theon," a voice seemed to whisper.

His head snapped up. "Who said that?" All he could see were the trees and the fog that covered them. The voice had been as faint as rustling leaves, as cold as hate. A god's voice, or a ghost's.

and:

The night was windless, the snow drifting straight down out of a cold black sky, yet the leaves of the heart tree were rustling his name. "Theon," they seemed to whisper, "Theon."

The old gods, he thought. They know me. They know my name. I was Theon of House Greyjoy. I was a ward of Eddard Stark, a friend and brother to his children. "Please." He fell to his knees. "A sword, that's all I ask. Let me die as Theon, not as Reek." Tears trickled down his cheeks, impossibly warm. "I was ironborn. A son … a son of Pyke, of the islands."

and:

"The heart tree knew my name. The old gods. Theon, I heard them whisper. There was no wind but the leaves were moving. Theon, they said. My name is Theon."

and:

The memory left Theon writhing in his chains. "Let me down," he pleaded. "Just for a little while, then you can hang me up again." Stannis Baratheon looked up at him, but did not answer. "Tree," a raven cried. "Tree, tree, tree."

If interested: Names Said by Ravens in the Series

except Stannis also mentions:

“The village lacks a dungeon, and I have more prisoners than I anticipated when we halted here.”

and:

“You are dead men, understand that,” the king went on. “Only the manner of your dying remains to be determined. You would be well advised not to waste my time with denials. Confess, and you shall have the same swift end that the Young Wolf gave Lord Rickard. Lie, and you will burn.

but wait you say... u/LChris24 Theon/Asha both have kingsblood:

"The king? Or you?" Suggs snorted his contempt. "Scheme all you like, Massey. She'll still be for the fire, her and her king's blood. There's power in king's blood, the red woman used to say. Power to please our lord."

technically so do our captive Karstarks:

Lord Rickard had spoken truly, Catelyn knew. The Karstarks traced their descent to Karlon Stark, a younger son of Winterfell who had put down a rebel lord a thousand years ago, and been granted lands for his valor. The castle he built had been named Karl's Hold, but that soon became Karhold, and over the centuries the Karhold Starks had become Karstarks.

"Old gods or new, it makes no matter," Lord Rickard told her son, "no man is so accursed as the kinslayer." -ASOS, Catelyn III

TLDR: From TWOW, Theon I we can confirm that Stannis has northmen that he must placate after catching the Karstark treachery. The best way to do so is to make a sacrifice to the northern gods before a weirwood tree. Stannis likely intends to do so with Theon. Bran and/or Bloodraven intervene.