A guide to reading the election results on the night
A handy guide to understand what's happening tomorrow night. Keep in mind, the required number of seats is 24 and no party holds this number of seats right now.
To truly understand the situation, we have to start with the independents:
- Waite (7.4% LIB v ALP): Member left the Liberal Party after 2018.
- Mount Gambier (10.3% v LIB)
- Kavel (14.5% LIB v ALP): Member left the Liberal Party after 2018. Narungga (18.2% LIB v ALP): Member left the Liberal Party after 2018.
- Florey (13.5% ALP v LIB): Member won't contest this seat in 2022.
- Frome (18.1% LIB v APL): Member won't contest this seat in 2022.
Of these, the expectation is that Waite will be contested, but more than likely go back to the Liberals. This will go under the fairly safe seats list for the Liberals. Kavel and Narungga are expected to be a contest between the Liberals and the Independents in question. Florey and Frome are expected to return to the ALP and Liberal Party respectively, and are expected to be safe. Mount Gambier is expected to be safe as an independent seat.
#Safe Seats
The following seats, unless in extreme circumstances, shouldn't be going anywhere (10%+ notional 2PP):
| Liberal (12) | Labor (11) |
|---|---|
| Gibson (10.0%) | Taylor (11.9%) |
| Morphett (10.8%) | Florey (13.5% ALP v LIB) |
| Unley (11.5%) | West Torrens (14.2%) |
| Stuart (11.7%) | Giles (14.9%) |
| Finniss (14.5%) | Kaurna (16.0%) |
| Schubert (15.6%) | Cheltenham (16.7%) |
| Hammond (16.9%) | Port Adelaide (16.8%) |
| Bragg (16.9%) | Elizabeth (17.2%) |
| Chaffey (18.0%) | Ramsey (18.5%) |
| Frome (18.1% LIB v APL) | Playford (19.0%) |
| MacKillop (25.2%) | Croydon (23.3%) |
| Flinders (26.1%) |
Something would have to go drastically wrong for any of these seats to be in play. Not even Scomo could lose some of these seats.
You shouldn't really bother checking the safe seats more than just once as confirmation. Don't fall for hype of early counts with these, or any really, but these in particular.
#Fairly Safe Seats
The next set of seats are usually called 'fairly safe'. These are the seats in the 6.0%-9.9% range. Losing any of these seats would be very damaging on the night. The expected swing in this election is somewhere in the range of 3-8% to Labor, so some of the seats on the Liberal side might actually end up in play, but that's on a uniform swing.
| Liberal (8) | Labor (4) |
|---|---|
| Colton (6.2%) | Enfield (6.2%) |
| Hartley (6.6%) | Hurtle Vale (8.3%) |
| Waite (7.4% LIB v ALP) | Light (8.4%) |
| Dunstan (7.5%) | Reynell (9.5%) |
| Heysen (7.6%) | |
| Davenport (8.2%) | |
| Black (9.2%) | |
| Morialta (9.4%) |
Yes, that is Dunstan, Steven Marshall's seat. It's unlikely, but there does exist a chance that he's in for a contest tomorrow.
#Marginal Seats
The next set is the marginals.
| Liberal (4) | Labor (5) |
|---|---|
| Newland (0.1%) | Mawson (0.7%) |
| King (0.6%) | Wright (3.1%) |
| Adelaide (1.0%) | Badcoe (4.8%) |
| Elder (1.9%) | Lee (5.3%) |
| ⠀ | Torrens (5.7%) |
It would be a very bad night for Labor if they lost any of these seats. The Liberals are expected to lose all four of these marginals.
This gives us the totals:
| Status | Liberal | Labor | Independent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe | 12 | 11 | 1 |
| Fairly | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| Marginal | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Total | 24 | 20 | 3 |
This alone should tell you why people shouldn't see this as Labor having it in the bag. The Liberals, notionally, if the pendulum didn't move, would just be able to form government. The problem is the polls, which point to somewhere between a 3%-8% swing to Labor. Even starting from the assumption that the Liberals will pick up Kavel and Narungga, 3% would still see them lose 4 seats, and see Labor in government.
With the scale of early and postal votes, we may not know an election result for weeks. If the swing is high enough though, it could also happen quite quickly.
In terms of what to watch then:
- If Labor lose a fairly safe seat, the Liberals are in with an excellent chance. Uniform swing isn't realistic, but any of these going would mean the overall swing cannot have been anywhere near the polls, and it points to the Liberals likely regaining a majority.
- If Labor lose any marginal seats on the night, we're probably in for a narrow result one way or the other, potentially a hung parliament.
- The Liberals are expected to lose marginals on the night, but this would still point to a potentially long count if none of the safer seats go to Labor.
- If the independents win in Kavel or Narungga, the best the Liberals will still be hoping form is forming a minority government.
- If any of the fairly safe seats fall from the Liberal side, then Marshall's days are almost certainly done as Premier.
Honestly, I'll be watching Colton, Hartley and Waite, as they will likely tell the story of the night. Labor don't technically need any of them to form government, but any falling would suggest we have a new Premier.
Finally, make sure to be cautious with early counts. Single booths can be notoriously bad at predicting the whole electorate. Also remember, due to early voting, and the change to the demographics doing it due to Covid, we may not get a full picture on the night, and what will happen after may be hard to predict. In America, they had their "red mirage" in 2020, where Republicans voted more in person than Democrats. Historical points about how postal votes go, etc, may not be useful tomorrow, and we may see an abnormal swing one way or another on the night itself. For this reason, I suspect there will be a lot more caution than usual in 'calling' seats.
Posted Mar 18, 2022, 5:08 AM UTC · edited
Thanks for that