Hot Takes, get your Hot Takes here! [SF1 Prediction]

The prediction posts will continue until morale improves... and we get a dedicated thread to store our nonsense :P

Forecasting SF1 is a fool's errand. But forecasting SF2 is the errand of about 20 fools, and I'll get around to it anyway! So, this fool humbly presents his prediction for the 2022 SF1 results~!

I'll be placing all 17 songs into "Near Certain Qualifier", "Likely Qualifier", "Likely Non Qualifier", and "Near Certain Non Qualifier", avoiding "Toss Up" which is the coward's method (even if it's entirely justified this year), along with notes on what might change that and so on. I'll also add on a final ranking, though I won't do a Jury-Tele split because behave.

###Comments and Base Predictions

#####Albania - Likely Non Qualifier Open up with controversial picks, check! So, pre-revamp this song would've been fine, given the lack of "Yas Qween" entries in the SF. But the revamp is one of the ones which has weakened the song, becoming musically... messy. And whilst there is still a televote block, it's not that big. Like, if that particular voting block was as large as often implied, SloMo would've been above 4% of the televote at BenidormFest.

Saving Grace: If the juries focus on the vocals here (Albania is Albania), this might pick up enough juror points to sneak through.

#####Armenia - Likely Non Qualifier This song is easy listening, in both the best and worst way. Like, it's lovely to have in the background, but it's very easily forgotten after more than a couple of minutes.

Saving Grace: This could be relatively easy to stage - go campfire aesthetic, play up the cute, and it does have a route to win the charm vote.

#####Austria - Near Certain Qualifier The fast song, for those who don't like the """jokier""" entries of Moldova/Latvia. In a generally slow semi final this stands out. I find this song difficult to listen to more than a few times in a row because of how hard it hits, but for something that viewers get one shot at... yeah, I'd be stunned if this even struggles to qualify.

also, yas qween engaged

REALLY BIG Banana Skin: Vocals. This flops if the vocals flop, and with how fast they are it feels fumblable. That, and EDM staging is always difficult. I have confidence though!

#####Bulgaria - Near Certain Non Qualifier When this song came out, I will admit I defended it against people who claimed, without having heard any of the other 16 songs, that it was doomed to NQ. Like, that was a ridiculous claim at the time - lord knows some years this would've had a shot. Now that we have the other 16 songs, it gives me great pleasure to say: I can stop defending god-awful anime opening "rock".

Saving Grace: The only saving graces here involve either a misappropriation of funds towards certain jury members, or if the traditionally "Rock" voting group forgets to have taste.

#####Croatia - Likely Non Qualifier Please see Armenia, but like, a tiny bit weaker? Less well produced, a staging which feels a bit disjointed... if you were voting for this, then I think you were also voting for Armenia. At least we know the staging here works well - you can't mis-stage songs like this otherwise you end up like Slovenia 2016. Not qualifying.

Saving Grace: The two aforementioned having a mare. Not sure how to pull this one across the line.

#####Denmark - Likely Non Qualifier This suffers for being a Frankensong - viewers will get turned off after 1m of sloooow ballad, whilst the jury isn't going to enjoy the last 2/3rds. The main issue isn't that it's two songs, but that they're just not meshed together well enough - the ballad could've done with being about 30s shorter.

Saving Grace: There is no competent rock song (Bulgaria doesn't count), and obviously "ballad into rock" isn't uncommon in the genre, even if most songs pull it off better. Gives it half a chance to surprise us I reckon!

#####Greece - Near Certain Qualifier Modern, popular, moderately depressing - I'm not surprised that this is consistently doing well in people's top rankings, especially on the app. Juries will also be glad for something that definitely would get radio play!

REALLY BIG Banana Skin: Vocals. The studio version is giving me Romania 2021 worries, so this "Near Certain" has an asterisk or 50.

#####Iceland - Near Certain Non-Qualifier ... refer to Armenia and Croatia, but make it substantially harder to stage effectively. Honestly, I'm still not sure where I stand on this - the fact that I don't want to go back to listen to it and I am bitter about Reykjavíkurdætur probably doesn't help me have coherent thoughts here beyond "meh".

Saving Grace: This might pick up a handful of the "own language" voting block, but even that'll be hard to pull off given Lithuania, Moldova, Netherlands, Slovenia, Ukraine...

#####Latvia - Likely Qualifier Of the trinity of songs unfairly lumped together as memes (+Norway, Moldova), Latvia is the most precarious - it's not got as much jury appeal as the folksy Moldova or the hyper-produced Norway. And it doesn't look likely to shine in the running order, given it's in the more high energy half to begin with. What Latvia does have going for it, though, is a god-damn good performance, a saxophone break, and being a stronger catch for non-child voters. Expect this to make it through somewhat shakily, and do better in the final.

Banana Skin: If juries completely blank it, I don't think it can do a "qualify from only televote" that others could. Still, I think juries, contrary to popular belief, aren't completely allergic to fun (they just hate it).

#####Lithuania - Likely Qualifier Timeless and classy, this will do absolutely fine with the televote and the juries. It absolutely thrashes the other pure-ballad in it's half of the semi (spoilers for Switzerland!), and it sets the bar high for it's competitors. A slightly older voting block will enjoy this, but that's not a bad thing at all!

Banana Skin: Changing the staging too much from the NF, which I have heard rumours of happening. This would be: a great shame, if it ruins the overall emotion of the performance.

#####Moldova - Near Certain Qualifier So, what do you get when you merge together a slow Semi Final, a band that knows how to stage stuff, and more than a hint of folklore, rock and roll? You get the surest qualifier of the semi final - my bet is that this wins the Televote, and it won't underperform with the juries either (S10 stans them, so yeah).

Banana Skin: This slips down the list if the staging is boring and drains the energy from the song and vocals. Shouldn't happen with this lot, but worth being panick'd for just in case.

#####Netherlands - Near Certain Qualifier Part of the reason why Every Other Female Ballad should be nervous - this is just brilliantly arranged, in a way which hijacks the voting block. I can't put into words why this works when the others fall flat for me - but it just does. Expect solid Jury and Televote responses here.

Banana Skin: If we've all missed the mark on how popular this'll be? I doubt it though.

#####Norway - Likely Qualifier Well produced, hard to miss, in the better half of SF1. Norway might do a "Serbia 2015" (10th in Semi, 10th in GF), but I can't see it not qualifying on the basis of a solid televote, and a workable jury score. Oh, and like, at least 10 people are going to get their furry awakening from this one.

(Give that Wolf A) Banana Skin: Insufficient numbers of children stealing their parent's phone, or the joke not winning enough people over to what is otherwise just a solid pop song.

#####Portugal - Likely Qualifier Simply captivating - this song demands that it's not just background music, in a way which others are struggling to. I'm not good at predicting ballads, but it's got all the qualities I expect in ones which qualify.

Banana Skin: Genre overload might harm this, which is less on the song and more on the luck of the draw.

#####Slovenia - Likely Qualifier I'm biased, sue me! This has all the feeling of a surprise Jury favourite - not leading it but enough to get it most of the way there - and there's an endearing charm that should just about get enough votes to bring them across the line.

Banana Skin: Insufficient grandmothers voting in the semi-final.

#####Switzerland - Likely Non Qualifier This John Lewis Christmas Advert Backing Track has failed to impress - sad boy ballads normally do well on fan voting, so the rejection on that front must sting. A message that'll be hard to get across on stage, a televote that is likely to be tepid... nowhere to really get the points they need.

Saving Grace: The juries have been known to enjoy weaker ballads inexplicably. Switzerland better hope for it!

#####Ukraine - Near Certain Qualifier This was safe before Current Events - something which should've done well with the Televote, and not a major jury turn off. Now? It's very safe to qualify.

Banana Skin: I can't think of a way that this gets ruined on the stage. Literally just do what was done at Vidbir.

###Estimated Final Rankings

I... don't think anyone who read the above will be that surprised by these. This isn't a metric on confidence mind - I'm more confident in Moldova than Austria, but I think Austria will do better if they don't shock me.

1. Ukraine

2. Netherlands

3. Greece

4. Austria

5. Moldova

6. Lithuania

7. Norway

8. Portugal

9. Latvia

10. Slovenia

11. Albania

12. Denmark

13. Armenia

14. Croatia

15. Switzerland

16. Iceland

17. Bulgaria

My usual caveats here - I'll change about 15 of these results once we know staging + running order, and there is a really big blob from 8 through to 14 I'd usually put under "???????".

And now, to flee a bunch of any people and join the mob waiting on Azerbaijan.