[OC] World Cup 2022 Draw: Probabilities
![[OC] World Cup 2022 Draw: Probabilities](https://i.redd.it/qvsbzg5bowq81.png)
Posted Apr 1, 2022, 11:49 AM UTC
4727
So being an UEFA team in the third pot is basically a cheat code
15
Yes, because of the order of the draw. After the first two pots, some groups will already have 2 Uefa teams so they can’t take a third one. And Qatar is more likely to draw one of them from pot 3 because they can’t draw other AFC teams in pot 3.
9
Serbia and Poland 300 IQ!
4
Looks like Poland will be happy today
3
regardless who we will get, it's not like we will be favorites to advance.
2
remembering the last world cup eh?
1
any tournament since the 80s that wasn't the 2016 Euro. There were a bunch of them.
Edit: a visual aid
2
I think that Mexico and the US cannot be in Canada’s group. So pot 4’s calculations might be off
8
You’re right! I’ll try to fix that one
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[deleted]
1
What time is the draw?
7
4 hours from now. 5pm BST
12
7PM Arabia time, 5PM UK time
4
Thanks!
3
If not in your national TV, u can watch it at the official YouTube channel of FIFA
2
In 4 hours.
3
Wrong, in 3 hours and 7 minutes
2
Why does Peru have a 0% to join the Qatar group. They have the biggest chance of winning the playoff and they will not break the rule of 2 countries from the same zone.
3
it’s not just Peru tho, it’s UAE/AUS/Peru and Qatar can not be in the same group as Australia or the UAE
5
Because it could be Australia or VAE as well. And they can’t be in the same group as Qatar.
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1
Since when is it no 2 countries from the same zone in a group? I feel like there's two european teams in groups in every world cup, like France-Swiss in 2006 off the top of my head
-1
Two European teams is allowed still, just not two of others
6
Uefa is excluded from this rule. It's the only federation that can can have 2 teams in one group
3
I ran 100.000 simulations of today's World Cup draw to calculate all match-up probabilities in the group stage.
It includes the constraint that countries from the same confederation can't face each other in the groups (except UEFA, where there is a minimum of 1 and a maximum of 2 in each group).
Hope something similar didn't already get posted, and also that I didn't make any mistakes in my code.
I’m not smart enough to know if you made any mistakes, but well done. This is fun.
I think you may have made a mistake in draw order. Since Qatar will be group A, and the first ball drawn from pot 2 will join them, and the Uruguay restrictions can’t cause anyone to be put in a different group if they get drawn first against Qatar, all pot 2 teams should be 12.5% to be with Qatar. Someone tried to post something similar yesterday, but not as expansive and made a similar mistake.
Ah I didn’t know about that one, thanks. That slightly changes things but not a lot it seems.