Inside Q2, 2022. Eye on 2024

Zoom out a bit. Use those first principles Elon talks about. Stock price. Last year, about 50 weeks ago, TSLA was pushing to 600 from 800. It overshot, see 52 wk low. Over q2-3, 2021 the valuation climbed to 775ish and then tested, popped through 800. Overshot, see thanksgiving 21 high of 1200. That scribble came back to 775, overshot hit 700 in late feb. If Tesla is going to 10x from here ($800-1200), then it’ll probably do it in fits and starts. Buy at 6 sell at 12 buy at 8-10 sell at ? Then buy back at? Linear says sell at 16 (overshoot to 17) buy back at 14 (overshoot to 12). Adjust for future splits. But log says sell at 20 buy back at 17, reassess at 35. The path to 80 or 100 will be ziggity. The goal is share quantity. The buys and sells are to gain from and hedge the valuation fluctuations. sept 2400calls would be a few months out from a logarithmic breakout, which itself would likely be a zig zag linear but on a tilt ride. Spiking at mid May run to 11. Coming back to 10 before cresting at 12, 16, or 20. Likewise, the June380puts are far enough out to play out a run. If TSLA breaks to the downside, to 500, those $150 puts would trade at $2000. For a min. See how Shanghai delivered in April and especially the ramp in Fremont. Carbon sleeve engines, eye on that.

Posted May 7, 2022, 3:24 PM UTC

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