Posted Jul 23, 2022, 11:26 AM UTC
Probably the infrastructure just isn't there. You can't just dump grain to a port and export, you need storage silos, loading infra etc...
Infrastructure is already there in Varna, Constanta etc, but transport to Romania is one thing and the second thing is that Romania also has to ship their own products for export too, so it is not that easy to ship all Ukrainian produced grains, the quantity of which is huge, through Romania.
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If it's a matter of humanity starving, id be pumping money into building the required infrastructure !
I can only guess, this would take a long time to build, or there are other issues we dont know of.
In Romania thing move slooooooow. We don't build railways and ports for ourselves let alone another country. There were discussions about moving grain from Ukraine by rail but then we discovered that most rails around Galați are blocked by 30+ years rusty trains ( as is the case in almost the entire country). meanwhile the port of Constanța is waaay too underdeveloped. We're talking about decades we wasted. Simply put our infrastructure is shit because politicians have been stealing the money which were supposed to go to it for 30+ years and are still doing it. Also the only suitable channel for Ukrainian grain export in the Danube Delta is closed and opening it might endanger the whole Delta so we're very reluctant to do that
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I like your way of thinking... but pumping money and improving the infrastructure the way you are suggesting would mean it could be ready maybe in two or three years at least. And that assuming the war does not mess anything (which is unlikely).
Ukraine is exporting about 1/4 to 1/3 of the amount of grain they usually export. That is probably the best they can do with the available infrastructure.
The problem here that you are not seeing is that the people who are starving don't have a lot of money... That means it is not profitable to build more infrastructure. It could be though if it's subsidized. But still it takes forever to build roads, terminals, storage capacity.
I think you're dangerously naive about how much time it takes for construction - after all, it took from the start of the war until now to recommissioning a rail line of a few kilometres from the border of Romania to the port of Galati.
For something as complex as upping the capacity of a major harbour usually takes decades of careful planning, design work and actual construction. And I know what I'm saying, because not only I'm an architect, but I've actually designed a few structures in Constanta harbour itself, including grain silos.
Interestingly, in the case of Constanta, it probably would be easier to do than in case of other ports because in the last enlargement (planned since 1967 and actually built from 1976 to 1984 as part of the wider project of the Danube-Black Sea canal) actually made the area enclosed by the moles a lot oversize, specifically so there is extra capacity for an enlargement later on.
Even better, you don't even have to build anything because there is actually a new 60,000 square meter grain terminal that was just commissioned in January 2022 and there are four others (the oldest dating to 1904-15) in the rest of the port so there actually is enough capacity at the moment.
Oh, and just for good measure, there is a sixth grain terminal about to begin construction and slated to be finished in 2023.
However, regardless of all of this capacity, the main problem is still be how to get the grain from Ukraine to Constanta, because you don't have a direct rail link due to the gauge difference, so you still end up with a bottleneck where you have to trans-ship grain from train to barges either in either Galati or Reni, move them up the Danube, then through the Danube-Black Sea canal into the Constanta Port where you finally load them on an oceanic ship bound for abroad...
And guess what, we're already doing all of that and it's not bloody fast enough.
They're still at war. Their money is going to fighting the Russians and it's difficult to pass a bill and then build a years long infrastructure project when there are bombs falling every single day and your country is already damaged for 500 billions worth of repairs
Just having a port doesn't solve everything. And sometimes dumping money into it won't work either. How deep is the channel? What types of boats can it accommodate? There are very very smart people figuring this stuff out, if it was this simple they would have done it.
Channel depths are not really the issue, Constanta drafts are fine even for 35000+ GT vessels. In fact, vessels loading in Mykolaiv etc are usually loading up to a specific point and then shift to outer roads for topping up cargo, since Ukrainian ports also have some weird draft restrictions. I think that the most important part is the logistics, transport and storage of the cargo at Romanian ports.
Right now, with the new 200,000 metric ton COMVEX grain terminal just coming into commission in January 2022 and the new 80,000t UMEX grain terminal about to begin construction but not stated to be finished until 2023, the Constanta harbour actually has a grain storage capacity of at least 1,117,200 million metric tons split between various companies (I'm sure I've forgot a few and it's more than that), so the capacity exists.
It's transporting the grain from Ukraine to Constanta that's the bottleneck and I don't see any solution that can be implemented quickly enough.
You can’t build a grain export system overnight.
Because it's already under way, more than half of ukrainian grain exports transited Romania lately. Also, the area you're showing is the Danube Delta, which has no bridges over it, being a nature reserve..
There is one in Galati. But yeah, bridges are rare, ports are rare.
You can't get big ships from Constanta to Galati. You can't ship big using the river.
Note that Portile de Fier (Iron Gates) is probably the maximum distance any ship could travel. Still in Romania, in the mountains, don't expect to go to Germany where the river flows from.
The grains need to travel by sea.
What do you mean? The Iron Gates have locks that ships can pass trough. You can ship something from Galati/Constanta to the Atlantic/North Sea via the Danube - Main Rhein canal.
Ah, I am kind of bad in Geography. I didn't know. I am still sure the river doesn't allow big cargo ships.
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Quite a bit is actually
Should be top.
It's a matter of scale and infrastructure.
You can't plonk a car on a donkey and expect it to cope.
Ports often specialize in something eg grain, coolstores,logs, cargo etc.
Source I've worked at them.
Grain goes in bulk generally by ship you would have to use a train or truck to move it. Trucks are horribly inefficient.
Once it's there who knows what facilities or capacity the port has. Eg they may not have the required staff, silos or time to ship it. They might be busy exporting Romanian produce idk.
Lots of things to go wrong.
Perishable goods are the worst.
Moldy wheat is very dangerous.
Half a solution is no solution.
Depending on global food markets has always been a point of doom.
Well, if it's grain capacity you're after, Constanta is a good place to be, since we were the second grain exporter in Europe after Ukraine and most of that went through Constanta.
Right now I believe the storage capacity is something along the lines of 1,117,200 metric tons split between various companies, but even so, it's not storage that's the problem, but getting that grain from Ukraine to Constanta in the first place, because, trucks, as you well said are horribly inefficient, there can't be a direct rail link because of the gauge difference (1435mm in Romania, 1520mm in Ukraine) and right now the best we can do is to load the grain onto barges at Reni (Ukraine's port on the Danube) or Galati (18km up the river in Romania, now with a newly refurbished wide gauge rail link all the way from the border) then take the barges up the Danube and through the Danube-Black Sea canal on a 235-km journey to the port of Constanta where they'll finally be moved on oceanic ships...
You certainly can see why that's horribly slow and inefficient, right?
Yup I've worked at a port and wife works for logistics company.
Yeah, I gathered it was something along those lines, hence why I though you'd apreciate some actual numbers.
Oh, and I forgot to add, there is one more bottleneck - the storage capacity in the ports of transhipment on the Danube - in Galati there is about 37,000 metric tons available (one masonry grain elevator built in 1889 with a capacity of 25k tons and 10 metal ones) and the port of Reni has a capacity of about 25,000t (not been able to find definite data on that), so the way we've been getting around that is besides the grain barges, we're also loading up standard gauge trains and running those to the port of Constanta in parallel to carrying grain by water.
So hopefully that'll get at least some of the grain moving to where it's needed, even if it's nowhere near as efficient as loading up ships directly in Odessa, because the Russians can definitely not be trusted to honour the grain agreement...
Good luck respect for helping out and doing the best you can.
It is. It's AFAIK main port for Ukrainian grain atm. But it has limited capacity, there are logistic problems with train routes and so on. So it easen the burden but it's not nearly enough to fix the problem.
It should be getting better shortly - one of the main bottlenecks was the difference in railway gauge between Romania, which uses the European standard gauge of 1435mm, and Ukraine, which is on the Russian wide gauge 1520mm. There used to be a rail line going all the way to the grain terminal of the Galati port (on the Danube) but it sat in disrepair for 30 odd years since the fall of the Soviet Union and they've just finished recommissioning it and that's just alongside all the work the Ukrainians have been putting into their own Danube port of Reni.
And for all the people in this thread saying "why don't they throw some money at it?", I think you're dangerously naive about how much time it takes for construction - after all, it took from the start of the war until now to do just that work, which is recommissioning a rail line of a few kilometres.
For something as complex as upping the capacity of a major harbour it would take years. And I know what I'm saying, because not only I'm an architect, but I've actually designed a few warehouses in Constanta harbour itself.
Besides, right now Constanta harbour actually has a grain storage capacity of at least 1,117,200 million metric tons split between various companies (I'm sure I've forgot a few and it's more than that), so the capacity exists - it's that damned problem of getting the grain to Constanta that's the sticking point, because, even with the newly reopened railway, it's stil way, way too slow.
A while ago, the Russians damaged the Zatoka bridge, which is needed to do that.
They have bombed it multiple times sadly
Ukraine is exporting by this route, question is the amount. Where the red arrow on your map begins there is a quite wide Dnister river with only two bridges. One is near the sea which was hit by russian missiles several times already, another bridge is on the north on the road through the Moldova.
They are. But if you compare the amounts you can load onto a big ocean freight ship, it's still too slow..
The region of Ukraine beneath Moldova is affectively only accessible via a single bridge Russian missiles hit that bridge near the start of the conflict. It is currently passable I believe. However if they started using it to ship grain it would quickly be targeted again. The alternative land route is not a path suitable for heavy goods vehicles I believe.
Problem is with how to get that grain there. There is no sane way. Ukraine uses wider train tracks than Romania so trains full of grain can't go to Romanian ports. But there is good news. Romania recently upgraded terminal in Galati to be able to accept trains from Ukraine. There is also second problem. There is no direct wide track from Ukraine to Romania. The only one winds through Moldova. It would be nicer if you just looked more closely on those maps. You see there ground but that's not traversable with heavy loads.
Railroads have much less capacity than ships. The Romanian Railroad has a different gauge than the Ukrainian one so they need a transshipment for grain or bulk cargo facility to move cargo. Another problem is that Transnistria blocks the railroad between Moldova and Ukraine. The direct Ukraine Romania rail connection goes through western Ukraine, not directly from Odesa (that route goes through Transnistria)
Basically, the infrastructure to export grain doesn't exist to connect Ukrainian Grain fields to the Romanian port of Constanta, AND.. the Constanta grain terminal seems to exist primarily to Import grain, I don't know how much that might affect the facilities for export.
The infrastructure is really bad in that Budjak area. From Odesa to Galați, even when you travel by car, it is an adventure. I can't imagine loads of trucks traveling that way.
Probably not the infrastructure and/or facilities. I like your way of solution focussed mind, but if it would be a true solution it would have already been implemented.
Dude, got to read the news. GEESH!
the railway can't move anywhere near as much as shipping can.
Because it takes thousands of trucks or railcars for 1 vessel is why
Romanian infrastructure was destroyed by corrupt politicians who have have been rulling this country for 32 years. It will take years to replace very old rails and also you'll have to send much more trains with grains instead of one ship
Bullshit. Our infrastructure was a shambles specifically because Ceaușescu Romania was so badly run by 1989 everything was falling apart.
Sure, it took us 20 years to climb out of the quagmire and yes, corruption is a reason why it took so long and is a problem even now, but compared to where we were in 1989, the infrastructure is incomparably better.
I really can't stand this stupid idea of "oh it was better in Ceaușescu time". No, it wasn't, and demonstrably so.
They are. Google.
Way too slow and also little capacity when transported via train. In addition, railway track width is different from UKR to ROM.
It is, however, happening, but really only on a small scale.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/24/business/economy/russia-ukraine-grain-exports-romania.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/romania-reopens-soviet-era-rail-line-to-aid-ukraine-grain-sales
....and this
https://splash247.com/romanias-top-port-unfit-to-solve-eus-challenge-to-bring-grain-out-of-ukraine/
Yep. Things are a clusterfuck in Constanta, while Russia is blackmailing the West and starving the rest.
https://www.romania-insider.com/constanta-port-container-terminal-jammed-ukraine