general questions/discussion on 'getting good'

so i've been playing dota2 for about a month now. i've racked up 200 games and barely scratch out a 50% winrate, but that kinda means nothing as obviously that's how MMR is supposed to work. anyway, dota2 is the first game of its kind i've played and initially(and it still does) it completely overwhelmed me with its complexity. i mean i'm not sure whether success in playing this genre of game is proportional to intelligence(i hope not, i'm a math major so that'd be embarrasing) but anyway, my point is this:

i'm the kind of guy who, with every game i've played competitively(or rather, to 'get good at') the method is you get raped and play horribly for a while and then you're better. repeat until you're top tier and then until you're the best. i mean it's obviously not REALLY as simple as that as there's a basic foundation of knowledge/tactics(i.e. you need to have some sort of plan in most FPS'/shooters) that's needed but once that foundation is established then 'skill' is all that matters.

in dota2 it seems that the above notion that i have is thrown out of the window. sure, there's a level of 'mechanical skill' involved(not missing your skills and shit like that) and the above notion would apply(trial and error etc) and i'm getting better at that(though my last hitting is fucking atrocious still). but then there's another dimension of dota2 skill that i can't quite identify because i'm probably looking through a narrow-minded view of gaming here, a set of principles that have to do with lane setup, hero selection, item builds and all that jazz that i can't quite understand them.

i mean there are a few principles i do 'get'. like counting the amount of disables on their team and on your team and picking your hero based on that(like if my team have no disables i'll go lion/shadow shaman as they have 2 and we would really need them). counting the amount of ranged/melee heroes, making sure the team is balanced and stuff like that with carries/supports. some items i understand when they're used(hex when you need mana/disable, orchid when you need an extra shutdown on a pesky caster/disabler, butterfly when you're fucking fat as fuck etc) but the problem is i can't identify when my item choices/hero choices have been shit or not. like when i think back to teamfights/ganks, or when i feed i'll think 'hmm i know exactly what i did wrong there so lets fix it', but i don't have that kind of hindsight when it comes to this dimension of dota2. maybe i'm missing something extremely simple here but reddithelpmeplease