AH Trends, Gold Inflation, and you

So I have been playing this game since release, played a ton, beat inferno etc. First, I want to say I really like the game, its super fun... but at higher levels of gear, you are going to run into certain problems.

I wanted to discuss the AH trends that I've been seeing for weeks that will continue to happen as the game continues. There are people who will benefit, people who will lose, and plenty will gain. Everyone should know whats happening and what will continue to happen.

First I want to talk about Gold inflation. Gold inflation means that the value of gold is going down, or the general prices of goods going up. This is currently happening and will continue to happen. Gold will loose value of time in general.

Now many people would say, "BUT DUDE, YO, I CAN BUY LIKE 950 dmg weapons now for like only ONE MIL! U r stupid. Gold is getting better!"

First, I think you are confusing the value of Gold pegged against a low demand item. ~950 dmg items are dropping prices like rocks because smart people are realizing that base damage is not worth the money and stats on that weapon can be just as valuable, and some stats (like crit dmg) can be worth way more on a weapon. Just as you can't value gold against against a Nata's Mark which is rising in price because of high DH demand, you cant peg Gold against a low demand item either.

You can only really peg how much gold is worth against the dollar, because the dollar maintains almost constant value. And we all know from being in trade chat even twice that Gold is worth less and less everyday. This happens for plenty of reasons, the biggest one being botters farming ridiculous amounts of gold without purchasing any items. (Not to say they don't buy items, but they don't buy them and keep them like the rest of us; they buy them, raise prices -> flip, raising overall prices) [Edit: I do want to mention the sole thing bots actually are good for: Keeping prices high for that time you actually find good items. They ensure it will be worth the market price, assuming you know how to price your items. They will also insure that if you undercut low enough, your item will sell quickly because they'll gladly buy it and flip it]

Edit 2: " One needs to consider both the value of gold against the dollar AND the value of items against the dollar. The fact that gold is inflating really isn't relevant if items are inflating also. Which they are." -Thanks to Ashmedai, credit to him

Now, there is another trend people should notice. There is an "average gear level" that the whole D3 community sits at. To understand what this has to do with you, consider a single player needs more and more time to find that next upgrade as he continues to play. He gets upgrades and then he needs better upgrades that take longer and longer to find. Also note that the individual never goes backwards - he isn't going to buy items that are downgrades for him.

This is also true for the community as a whole. As the average community gear level rises, it takes longer and longer to find an item that the community wants. Also consider that as the average gear level rises - the lower quality gear drops off dramatically. Items that used to be worth quite a bit and sold extremely quickly become worthless to most players, since they now own them. Another thing to keep in mind that as the average gear level rises, players will farm items much more quickly and add to this problem of finding tons of low quality items to sell, with none or few high quality items.

Things to take away from this:

1. Lower quality items prices drop off the face of the planet after the average gear level rises above the quality of that gear.
2. Extremely high quality items retain their value because they simply don't drop fast enough to meet demand for them. Very few items will actually gain value (like nata's)
3. Good items will take longer and longer to find as the game continues.

For certain players, this means a few things.

1. If you don't play much, you'll rise in gear level pretty much as fast as the community rises in gear. Lower cost items will continue to deflate since there is no way to take them out of the market - short of it not even being worth the time to put it on the AH.

This is a large benefit to people who can't play much, as they will always see a pretty good progression for little time invested.

2. If you play a shitload, you should be able to maintain your gold/gear at the very top since you don't need anything else and should theoretically be able to farm faster than anyone else can, besides bots. But bots don't contribute much to the item supply, just the gold supply. Bots also make sure that the HQ items you find will be worth a shitload.

But for players like myself, who play more than a casual but can't play hardcore, it leaves us in a bad situation. It is like we are on a slope that we can't climb up. Items that we want are rising in price since we need better gear than the community average, our own items are devaluing quickly, any gold we hang onto is devaluing, and any items that we can afford are going to be devaluing in a week or two. The only real way to actually move up that ladder is to find an item that actually retains it value, and it feels more like a lottery that we have to play.

[Edit] I wanted to point out as well that this "cutoff line" between good gear and bad gear constantly changes, but it always goes up. The more people farming gear, the faster this line moves.

The best way I have found to combat this is actually to sell your items on the RMAH since you can move your assets into something that won't lose value (and probably gain relative value). Most people won't like doing this, and it has to be a long term investment - mostly because the item selection on the RMAH is much more limited than the gold auction house.

[One last edit:] I dont mean to say that everyone is going to fall into the same category as myself where you can't upgrade significantly without spending 50-100 mil per item. Its a big segment of people between the hardcore players and casuals, and there is plenty of wiggle room and its probably pretty subjective for what it means to be between hardcore and casual, time wise. I am just adding my own personal experience. I'll probably just play less eventually and fall into the casual category and be happy with that. Take my advice for what you will, I am just trying to say making the jump from "great gear" to "some of the best gear" is going to be extremely frustrating for many people, as it has been for myself. In the end, if you keep playing, you'll get better gear. For reference, I have probably around 350-400 hrs played between chars, I play for fun and not always efficiency - but I have stared at that AH screen for a very long time.

And apparently its cool now to just go through all my replies and downvote them if you don't like the OP, even if I'm having a discussion with nice people. Oh well, thanks interwebz ;)

I think most people would find this helpful and I hope more people will realize this. These basic trends should continue throughout D3's lifetime as far as I can tell.