(Ix3+i)/BF=Out%, Or: Stop Worrying about IP and Learn to Love the Outs.

Introduction

There has been a lot of discussion about Hader's performance. Stats like ERA & SIERA, WHIP, and FIP are all incredibly useful when analyzing pitchers, it's just they all require innings pitched... which is great, until you can't get the outs. The wacky high ERAs you often see on AAAA relievers called up to sink with the ship are easily explained by their low IP. Similarly, Hader's ridiculous ERA as a Padre sticks out like a sore thumb; At 5.2 IP after yesterday's save, he's down to 19.06 ERA as a Padre. (Do yesterday again, Josh!)

So it got me thinking about what percentage of batters faced the pitchers get out. This isn't about runs, just outs, so ERA and SIERA and FIP and even WHIP don't perfectly fit what I'm seeking to describe. Though that said, a great WHIP in particular is a fantastic indicator of high Out%.

The formula: (Ix3+i)/BF=O E: Because I overcomplicate things when I'm behind on coffee, it's just IP/BF w/ IP represented as total outs (So 6IP=18outs). So it's OutEfficiency%, which is basically WHIP as % /e

Some examples of what this looks like, with work to follow. A few supplemental stats to go along side the O%. All stats are for 2022, and some splits are listed. My focus will be on our Padres.

Example: Dain Gerzone: O/BF=O% (ERA, K%, WHIP)

• Darvish: (155x3+2)/622=75% (3.41, 21.6%, 0.99)
• Musgrove: (149x3+1)/604=74% (3.01, 24.7%, 1.04)
• Clevinger: (85x3+1)/358=71% (3.59, 20.4%, 1.16)
• Manaea: (134x3+0)/573=70% (4.90, 23.7%, 1.33)
• 1st Half Snell: (50x3+0)/224=67% (5.22, 29.5%, 1.48)
• 2nd Half Snell: (43x3+0)/177=73% (2.30, 32.7%, 1.04)
• Rogers w/ SD: (41x3+1)/174=71% (4.35, 27.5%, 1.11)
• Hader in May: (7x3+1)/27=81% (0.00, 40.7%, 0.55)
• **Hader w/ SD: (5x3+2)/39=**44% (19.06, 23%, 3.53)
• Hader w/ SD @ SF 8/31/22: (1x3+0)/4=75% (0.00, 25%, 1.00)

This formula is basically WHIP as the Out%; They're directly related. The problem boils down to this: For small IP sample sizes, WHIP and ERA formulas are wild because they focus on IP; This formula corrects for that by incorporating BF, getting to the heart of pitcher efficiency across all sample sizes.

A great FIP and WHIP are rightfully sought after. Having an excellent defense behind your already stellar stats makes for a sexy ERA too. Bonus points for them if the pitcher also posts a great K/9 and does it with absolute filth. Guys like Ohtani, Sandy, DeGrom, Gonsolin, Peak Kershaw, Peak Hader, Sandman, and Hoffman make watching pitchers great. Guys like Josh Hader w/ the San Diego Padres make even the sexiest analytical formulas look wild.

We're all aware Josh just hasn't gotten guys out with the Pads. His ERA is a hot mess, and his IP is low (5.2 out of 8G) because he's just not getting guys out. The dude's control has been suspect, and his Barrel% is alarming. There are days I've joked he's Two-True-Outcomes: HBP or HR. Here's to hoping he keeps turning it around.

Out% as the next Sabermetric Stat? As much as I like a good looking FIP, just get the out.