Why Republicans Will Dominate The Senate For A Long Time
This is something that has been discussed here briefly, but I wanted to dive in deep and analyze exactly why the Democrat Senate outlook is so bleak over the next few cycles.
Let's start off with 2022. We still don't know what happens, but I'm going to assume this result, for sake of argument.
These aren't margins - I just make them all likely so that I can count them more easily at the bottom.
Time will tell whether this is right or not, but it is certainly very plausible. Even if it isn't, the argument I will make stands true. Let's look at the 2024 Senate Map.
--------- 2024 ------------
This shows incumbents. In the next maps, we will consider Sanders and King as Democrats for simplicity.
Looking at this map, there aren't many Republican seats that could flip. Sure, Florida or Texas could narrowly flip, but that is unlikely to happen unless those states are very close at the Presidential level. I don't see that happening. It's highly unlikely any of the other red states would be competitive this cycle.
2024 will be the year of the Republican challenger - Sherrod Brown, Joe Manchin, and Jon Tester are the three biggest targets. Tester and Manchin could be easy flips. I think Brown could put up a great fight, but he could very well get drowned in an angry red wave.
Other Democrats on the chopping block are Krysten Sinema in Arizona - I actually think she might be able to make it, but if she gets primaried by somebody more progressive, that's not a good sign for Democrats. Nevada might flip as well if they find a good candidate there.
That sill leaves Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. While these are less likely to flip, we can't leave them off the table. If the Republican wins these states, there's a good chance they're in play.
Assuming no surprise flips happen, like in Virginia, New Mexico, or Maine (if King retires), Democrats have everything to lose and little to gain.
Republicans are walking into 2024, if they win 53 seats this year, with a minimum of 44 seats in the Senate. To tie the Senate, Democrats need to flip three seats - meaning Florida, Texas, and one of any of those blood red states must flip. Indiana would be the most likely, but that would be the upset of the century.
Suppose Republican only get a 51 seat majority a week from now. Democrats would still need to flip Texas or Florida, and would need to get both to get a majority without holding the Vice Presidency.
And remember, they must do all this without losing a single incumbent.
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Speaking of losing incumbents, let's see how bad this might be.
This is probably the worst Dem outcome that has a plausible chance of happening. Obviously, this won't happen unless a Republican wins 2024 and carries WI, MI, and PA - but that might happen.
So, eight seats flip Republican - that's 59 seats total if Republicans win 51 this year, and 61 if they win 53. Factoring in possible shadow flips with Bolduc this year, and perhaps a shadow flip in Minnesota or Virginia, Republicans could theoretically reach 63 seats or more. That's wild.
Another possibility is this, where five seats flip Republican - this might also imply a Democratic Presidential victory. That's still 56 - 58 Republican seats in the Senate.
--------------- 2026 --------------
If 2026 is a blue wave year, it could look something like this, with lean states once again indicating flips. This assumes Susan Collins runs in Maine.
Despite the possible environment, many of these states are blood red. This is probably the most likely outcome, although Texas isn't guaranteed. With just two Democrat flips, even with our lowest Republican total number, the GOP still holds 54 seats. The only way the Senate could balance out again is if in 2024, Ohio, Nevada, and Arizona stay blue, putting the GOP at 53 seats minimum, and back to 51 from this map. If Democrats wanted to actually win, they'd need to flip Iowa and Maine as well, or perhaps find an upset in Kansas or Montana. Unlikely.
But, what if 2026 is another red wave year? Let's say this is the 2024 Presidential election result:
You can imagine Republican turnout would be pretty big in 2026.
This assumes Youngkin is the Republican nominee in 2026, and that "6-year itch" coming into play. I also left out some potential flips that we can't really predict, like perhaps Colorado or New Hampshire. Let's just say it flips four for Republicans.
That is 60 seats, if they had 56 in 2024. If they had 60, which is possible (though doubtful a Dem could win the White House in that same environment), that becomes 64.
It's absolutely insane how this could all play out. Definitely worth some worry for Democrats.
Posted Nov 4, 2022, 1:40 AM UTC