Ireland vs South Africa

We all know France and SA are the big boys this cycle

Do not undersell how good Ireland are.

Ireland coming in hot as the best side that Island has ever produced in the history of the sport

Ranked number 1 in the world, not by chance or a lucky draw, no point playing them off as underdogs.

Own the favourites tag playing at home and number 1 ranked side has given you and bring it on come saturday

We are so goddamn unpredictable at the moment it's impossible to say where we actually stand. We mauled NZ in Nelspruit only to shit the bed at Ellis Park the following week. We stuttered past Wales and crushed Argentina. I can easily see us winning or losing to both Ireland and France by 10+ points.

The Boks is a weird beast these days

I wouldn't worry about Baloucoune's defence.

SA will roll them, Ireland relies on physical domination from their locks and loosies to set up their distribution (like the 2015 All Blacks), the Springboks won't let them have that

I disagree with almost everything you have said here.

However, Ireland has adopted a quick off loading NZ style but have kept the Schmidt possession game.

I certainly don't think we play a "possession game" - we are using a huge amount more kicking variety than under Schmidt, for a start. Also our attack is nothing like a "quick off loading NZ style". If anything it's heavily league-influenced. But it currently doesn't look anything like any NZ attack I've ever seen.

Assuming we keep SA to 1-2 scrum penalties the game will come down to the highball.

I would expect a lot more than just high ball kicking... both of these teams look for grass with their kicks, and look to turn the back three. I'd say Ireland will go to Murray in the absence of Lowe a lot when clearing, which may change the complexion, but Murray is a very capable kicker for distance as well. And we'll definitely want to challenge their lineout, although the desire to keep high ball-in-play will probably nullify that and pull back more in the direction of contestables. But the Boks score most of their first and second phase scores off either high ball receipt or mauls. So I strongly doubt Ireland will be just going short and high all day. We've seen a lot more variation than that from all four Irish provinces in the URC, and Ireland's kicking from outside the 22 in NZ was much more about finding space than catching air.

On the bok side, Willemse isn't much of a high ball kicker. He's much more prone to chips and looking for space. They'll go off 9 a lot, no doubt, but I think it's a stretch to say the high ball will call it.

I know many saffas are excited for Kolbe at 15 but it's a crazy call and likely will give us the win with our back 3.

Weird take. Kolbe is a legitimately world class fullback. He gets a lot of game time there.

I have reservations about Balacoune's defence but maybe SA aren't the team to expose it without Am.

Baloucoune is one of our more capable defenders on the wing. He has a high defensive workrate and makes dominant tackles.

Without Am I think that the springboks midfield defence might stutter.

The all blacks got around the outside of the boks in game 2 but I think the relentless phases with the deception runners of the Irish might do the boks as well.

If the springboks can slow down the breakdown for 80 minutes they should win it. The Irish pack should have a harder time cleaning their rucks against SA than against NZ

Kolbe has played 15 most of his career so him playing there isn’t crazy. I think Kolbe and Willemse will surprise you

I dont understand why everyone says we are a part of the world class team list at the moment. Right now it is Ireland and France and no one else imo.

I think you're mostly right, however, I'm gonna say one thing...

Remember what happened last time someone decided to kick to Cheslin Bloody Kolbe? A certain Scottish Midfielder remembers...

I fully expect Ireland to win this one - they are incredibly clinical in everything they do and the Boks have been inconsistent and quite sloppy in many areas this year.

A BIG factor is how the referee is going to blow the scrums and mauls. The Boks have the better front row, specifically toward the end of the game when the benches come on, but they have not been getting the advantage there that they seem to expect each game. They tend to keep the ball in the scrum too long in those cases and either lose momentum or outright lose the scrum. In the maul (and I have to admit I feel like I've fallen behind with the laws/interpretation in the kast two years or so) it seems referees blow defending teams very inconsistently when in comes to swimming around, coming in from the sides etc and clever teams have used this against the Boks.

If SA can play the referee better they have a big chance. They have to smarter.

But as I said I think Ireland will take it.

They are strong, quick, organised and play a clever game.

The boks are strong and quick. Maybe they can become clever and organised by 2023wc.

Of all our wingers at the minute (except for Earls) Balacoune has the best defensive game.

Ill play.

As a Springbok supporter I view Ireland's biggest strength veing their ability to stress defences through multiphase attack and a bend-dont-break defence.

What makes this a very interesting match up is that the boks are the exact opposite. We are not going to endlessly recycle, we are going try three four phase and if there is nothing on we'll be happy to trust the defence. Our defence is also far more agressive, whennit fails it fails completely, but we wont get marched over our own try line with series of modest territorial games.

Stylistically I like the match up for the boks. They wont get the fast ball they thrive on against the bok ruck defence and will commit a lot more players, retain the ball, cutting down their attacking options. I also feel that Murray is the wrong guy to speed up the rucks and they will Henshaw in the midfield.

I also think we can get a substantial advantage at the scrum and maul.

All that said, I am not confident we'll win. I can see Ireland getting a try or two from fancy set plays, we dont have goal kicker, and they though our forwards should be on top, I can see Ireland being just tricky enough to stop us converting that dominance into points.

I hate to say it but I don’t think any of us Southern Hemisphere teams are in the spotlight, we’re all too inconstant and honestly far to busy infighting with one another, inuring key players and fraternising with the support staff. this years all about France and Ireland, and I’m actually kinda ok with that. If Ireland bring the sort of play they beat us down with, South Africa will need to be in a form they haven’t shown in a while to avoid being taken apart. If Ireland can keep a fast pace to the game, stay competitive at the line out and avoid multiple scrum resets they should have a recipe for another scalp. You have to remember next year is the WC, so Ireland will be unstoppable power houses from now until the quarter final.

I think without Am in the defensive line SA will likely be exposed. I don't think they have the defensive plan right now to defend the Irish game plan.

Also, given the conditions of the pitch with all the rain we've had i wouldn't be surprised if this is a game decided by the boot. And no chance SA come out on top in a kick at goal challenge right now.

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Ireland should win with home advantage + much more settled/cohesive squad, but I’m 51 -49% on it. SA could just as easily win, but without Am I’ll go Ireland by the skin of their teeth.

I was 100% sure of Ireland wining this... then i saw who the ref is..now its a 50/50