NQ Trading Opportunities the last 11 days
To help me wait for opportunities to roll around and practice some patience, of which I am sorely in need, I started ticking a box at the end of each 5minute bar to record whether there was a clear opportunity according to my method or not.
So, a "Y" if there was a successful opportunity that in retrospect worked out, or a "YF" for an opportunity that presented itself but failed quickly. So, my edge generated about a 60% win rate over this period of time with 82 opportunities. This was not "curve fitted" but was noted real-time as the market unfolded. The goal is to recognize these ops as they occur and take them without hesitation and rely on the probabilities and proper R:R.
One has to "change one's thinking about Loss Aversion and start thinking in terms of Probabilities". I wanted to demonstrate to myself the lesson in this video as mentioned by Cranky_Crypto in this excellent post here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/comments/vzzpz1/trading_psychology_loss_aversion_and_thinking_in/
On any given day in trading the NQ, there are normally sufficient opportunities but some days are clearly better than others. And some times of the day are clearly better than others. I like to see momentum in twenty-minute time frames, but being an avowed scalper (I am trying to reform) I will take profits when certain levels are reached and am not much of an AON trader (maybe someday). I only took examples from 09:30 to 11:10 because this is where the market has the most volume. So, the big moves pre-market and the FOMC sessions are left out.
Cheers
Posted Dec 14, 2022, 10:43 PM UTC
That’s a good effort, and I hope you can keep to your rules.
I have two setups that I really like and I’ve been through charts many times and counted up how many opportunities there are half hour by half hour.
But in real time I take way too many opportunities beyond just those two setups. After I look over a day, one of the things I think I see is that I want to be in a trade when ‘the big move’ happens, and I might not be in it if I’m being very selective and just going for those preferred set ups. Oddly, those preferred setups come during the big moves, but probably are initiated in the middle once the big move has started.