Clickbait title, I know.

This is my own perspective, though gathered from the insights of more knowledgeable people than me, of the most important aspects of the current market setup and what I see as the immediate risks and likely outcomes from now into January.

The tl;dr of this is that through the end of the year there is much greater risk to the downside than there is to the upside. For the bulls, it's entirely possible we see some good data and a Fed announcement that is dovishly-interpreted and we levitate higher into the new year. However, I as I go over below, I think the probability that outcome will follow through is small, and the current conditions - low liquidity, l

In this post I'll run down through various charts - indices, ETFs, some single stocks - to try to create some insight into the market. We're trying to establish some notion of what's doing well, what's not doing well, and what some market indicators might be telling us.

Disclaimer: I try to refrain from making outright conclusions or providing explicit trade ideas. Instead I'm walking through how different asset classes and sectors are performing, and highlighting some interesting and relevant indicators, all in an effort to give a more holistic picture of the market to help you make better informed trades. If you trade off any suggestive advice taken from this, t

In this post I'll run down through various charts - indices, ETFs, some single stocks - to try to create some insight into the market. We're trying to establish some notion of what's doing well, what's not doing well, and what some market indicators might be telling us.

I try to refrain from making outright conclusions or providing explicit trade ideas. Instead I'm walking through how different asset classes and sectors are performing, and highlighting some interesting and relevant indicators, all in an effort to give a more holistic picture of the market to help you make better informed trades.

[Previous Edition](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/uaw

Going to try to do this again, with a slightly different approach. I've made similar posts in the past, which you can find here.

In this post I'll run down through various charts - indices, ETFs, some single stocks - to try to create some insight into the market. We're trying to establish some notion of what's doing well, what's not doing well, and what some market indicators might be telling us.

I try to refrain from making outright conclusions, or recommendations - this is supposed to be informative, to help people learn there's more stuff in the market than TSLA, NVIDIA, AMD, etc, a

Coming to you with some perspective on technicals, sentiment, and considerations for the rest of 2021.

I've done a few of these posts previously, you can find them here.

I don't do outright trading advice; this is intended to help form a picture, possibilities, ideas, to keep in mind when making trades.

I take a look at the overall market through some charts first, then use those to highlight some possible conclusions and considerations.

Let's dig in.

Charts

Sector Compare YTD
There's a lot going on here

Since the volatility in mid-late May I’ve been generally bullish on the market: it seemed that nothing could accelerate meaningful downside move and this I think was further proven with the post-FOMC reaction of a small stumble and then right back up. And while I’ve continued to be bullish more recently, I have been looking at and discussing metrics and commentary around market breadth and the authenticity of this latest move to ATHs.

Let’s look at some charts to build context:

SPY vs RSP 1y

[SPY vs MAHP 1y](https://preview.redd.it/m3fz1fl6h1c71.png?width=24

I want to start off by revisiting some themes from last week's rundown: market performance, breadth, and sentiment, and what we might intuit from that as far as where we go in 2H 2021.
I've mentioned in several of my posts how the major indices have already posted massive gains for the year so far: SPY - %16+, QQQ - %15, IWM - %15. I've been pondering what this could mean for EOY targets considering the S&P 500 average yearly return is ~%10. Could we really go higher?

Index Returns - YTD
 
Well, I recently got some added perspective on that. In a [note put out earlier in July from LPL Financial](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stock

I want to start off by revisiting some themes from last week's rundown: market performance, breadth, and sentiment, and what we might intuit from that as far as where we go in 2H 2021.
I've mentioned in several of my posts how the major indices have already posted massive gains for the year so far: SPY - %16+, QQQ - %15, IWM - %15. I've been pondering what this could mean for EOY targets considering the S&P 500 average yearly return is ~%10. Could we really go higher?

Index Returns - YTD
 
Well, I recently got some added perspective on that. In a [note put out earlier in July from LPL Financial](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stock

I missed last week's post, but it's at least been a bit quiet given the quarter end and the holiday / general seasonality. Summer is upon us and we're staring at the second half of the year, maybe some wondering where we'll go from here with the SPY up %16 on the year already. My guess in the very short-term would be up a bit more, but maybe we don't end the year this high.
Who knows?
 
Since the volatility in mid-May we've had a seeming change in leadership and though indices have melted upward there's been some good churn underneath.
I had started a post for the previous week focusing on some market breadth data/indicators, and I think it's even more worth a look now that

I missed last week's post, but it's at least been a bit quiet given the quarter end and the holiday / general seasonality. Summer is upon us and we're staring at the second half of the year, maybe some wondering where we'll go from here with the SPY up %16 on the year already. My guess in the very short-term would be up a bit more, but maybe we don't end the year this high.
Who knows?
 
Since the volatility in mid-May we've had a seeming change in leadership and though indices have melted upward there's been some good churn underneath.
I had started a post for the previous week focusing on some market breadth data/indicators, and I think it's even more worth a look now that

Strap in, this is gonna be a long one. A lot happened this week, yet despite all the turmoil the SPY closed down less than %3 on the week, IWM a little worse off at under %4 and QQQ about unchanged. As we’ll discuss, there’s a different story lurking beneath the surface and it’s questionable just how much this volatility can be contributed to the Fed’s comments on Wednesday.

###Fed Reaction

At the risk of being labelled a Fed apologist, I have to ask what were people expecting? Those recently screeching about inflation risks should be happy: the Fed has taken note, though sticking to the narrative (seemingly supported by th