New week. End of June. A lot to track. - June 29, 2026

What happened over the weekend

• US and Iran were at it again - Iran fired at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, US struck back overnight
• So that ceasefire from last week? Fragile. Oil crept back up to $70-72 as a result
• Samsung and SK Hynix announced a $1.3 trillion chip investment over 10 years - their own stocks fell. Market got scared by the cost.
• Baidu's AI chip unit in China planning a $50 billion IPO in Hong Kong. China is building its own AI world fast.

How June ended for markets

• Tech had a terrible month. Nasdaq down 6% in June alone.
• Dow Jones actually went up 1% in June. Old school companies beat tech this month.
• That gap between Dow and Nasdaq tells you everything - money is quietly moving out of big tech into boring reliable companies
• Micron gave great earnings. Then its stock fell 6.7% the next day. That's how tired the market is of AI stocks right now.

This week - what to watch

Big picture - end of quarter

• This week is the last week of June. Q2 2026 ends Tuesday.
• Every 3 months big funds rebalance - they sell winners and buy losers to balance their portfolio
• That creates weird moves in markets this week. Don't panic if things look unusual.

Key dates this week

• Monday - quiet, nothing major
• Tuesday - Consumer Confidence data + Nike earnings
• Wednesday - ADP jobs report + General Mills earnings
• Thursday BIGGEST DAY. June Jobs report drops. This one number will move everything.
• Friday - US markets closed. Independence Day

Sectors I'm watching

Healthcare

• Quietly the best performing sector right now as money leaves tech
• Eli Lilly up 7% last week on good news from Europe
• GLP-1 weight loss drugs and AI diagnostics are the real growth story here
• Still cheap compared to tech. I think smart money is slowly moving here.

Industrials

• Boring but working. Data centers need to be built. Power grids need upgrading. Roads and bridges being funded.
• When tech falls, industrials hold. That's what happened last week.

Small cap stocks

• Interesting thing happening - small companies are actually beating big tech this year
• Small cap index up 21% vs Nasdaq up 17% year to date
• When small caps lead, it usually means the market rally is spreading wider. That's a good sign.

Investment options - USA, India and beyond

USA

• High yield savings - still giving 5% with zero risk. Best risk free return in years.
• S&P 500 ETF - broad, diversified, boring, reliable
• Small cap ETF (IWM) - if you believe the rally spreads beyond tech
• Healthcare stocks or ETFs - if you think rotation continues

India

• Sensex and Nifty flat today after a long winning streak - normal pause
• Not crashing. Just breathing.
• Best options right now - Nifty 50 index fund, flexi cap MF via SIP, mid cap funds for higher risk
• Sectors to watch - defence, manufacturing, infrastructure, digital payments

Japan

• Nikkei down today pulled by chip stocks and SoftBank weakness
• Bank of Japan raising rates for first time in decades - big structural shift
• Interesting long term but bumpy short term

South Korea

• Samsung and SK Hynix announced $1.3 trillion chip investment - stocks fell anyway
• Classic "sell the news" situation
• Long term chip story strong but painful right now

China

• Baidu AI chip unit IPO is the big story - $50 billion valuation
• China building its own AI chips, models, everything - fast
• High risk but worth watching if you follow the AI decoupling story

Stock on my radar - FCX

• Copper demand from AI and EVs unchanged
• July 21 earnings coming - next big catalyst
• Oil stabilizing is actually good for this one long term

Risks this week

• Iran fired at ships again over weekend - oil could spike any day
• Jobs report Thursday - too strong = rate hike fears. Too weak = recession fears. No easy outcome.
• Quarter end = weird market moves this week
• Short week with Friday holiday = lower volumes = bigger swings

My simple take

June was tough for tech and fine for everything else. That's actually healthy. Markets can't just be about 7 big companies forever. The big moment this week is Thursday's jobs report. If jobs data comes in soft - rate hike fears drop and markets could finish the first half of 2026 on a positive note.

First half of 2026 ends Tuesday. What a 6 months it's been.

What are you watching this week? Drop below 👇

Not financial advice - just my personal observations. Always do your own research before investing.