Manufacturing hits highest since May 2022 while Iran tensions push oil up 4% — today's market brief

ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0 in May — biggest beat in months and the strongest reading since May 2022. New Orders surged to 56.8, signaling real forward momentum. But the Prices Index at 82.1 tells the other side of the story: 42% of panelists cited Middle East conflict as a cost driver.

Meanwhile WTI jumped 4.14% to $92.16 after weekend reports of fresh US strikes on Iranian sites. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, and it's feeding directly into those manufacturing input costs.

The tension between strong growth data and persistent energy-driven inflation is making the Fed's job nearly impossible. Rate-hike speculation is back on the table.

Three things to watch this week: any clarity on the Iran ceasefire status, Friday's payrolls report, and signals on the copper tariff deadline June 30.

Full brief with market data: https://www.seeerai.com/daily/2026-06-02/