Why managers over-order when they are trying to protect the store

Over-ordering usually gets blamed on bad judgment. After 20 years
working across multiple franchise locations, I think that is too
simple.

A manager often over-orders because the cost of running short feels
immediate and personal. A stockout creates an angry customer, a rushed
vendor call, or a conversation with the owner. Extra cases sitting in
the back room feel safer, even when nobody has calculated what they
will cost.

The fix is not just telling managers to order less. They need a
repeatable answer to three questions:

1. What do we have right now?
2. What did we use since the last count?
3. What level do we actually need before the next delivery?

That means counting on a consistent day, recording usage instead of
relying on memory, and setting a reasonable PAR level for each item.
If the number changes, there should be a reason, such as a promotion,
seasonality, or an unusual event. Otherwise, the order slowly becomes
a guess with a purchase order attached.

One practical habit that helped me was separating the count from the
order decision. First count what is there. Then review what was used.
Only after that decide what to buy. It keeps the fear of running short
from taking over the whole process.

I wrote more about (https://trackitweekly.com/blog/why-do-managers-over-order)
and the operational causes behind it. TrackItWeekly is built around
the same count, usage, and reorder rhythm because the goal is not to
make managers place smaller orders. It is to help them place orders
they can explain.

What usually causes over-ordering in your operation: fear of
stockouts, changing demand, inconsistent counts, or something else?