POTD 08/08 - Thursday Night Footy LET'S GO!
Record: 36-16
Net Units: +37.365 Units
ROI: 49%
Previous Pick: Walsh Anytime Tryscorer. Lovely price in hindsight, given he scored early within 10 minutes and then scored a second try - love when we line up for a decent price and it cashes early! Been lingering around this 35 Unit mark for a little bit now, looking to kick forward this weekend and get us over the 40+ Unit mark, let's make it happen.....
Event: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm
Time: 7:50pm AEST 08/08
Bookie: BET365
Play: Anytime Tryscorer, Warbrick
Odds: $1.72 (AUS) or -140 (US)
Units: 2 Units
Analysis: We’ve got the Storm here looking to bounce back after a weird and honestly very typical NRL and sport in 2024 result. Souths just looking done for the year, were on a good stretch for a period there but I think the loss to the Dolphins in Redcliffe really stifled their run. They get Cody Walker back in here in this one which is big given how important he is to their offensive success. Think dropping Host is smart, guy is clearly not at prime fitness levels and would’ve had a nightmare matchup against Katoa potentially, who’s actually out injured for the Storm - other than that they’re unchanged. Storm overall are the clear better team and their H2H price reflects that, they’re also the 2nd best offensive team in the league behind the Roosters and with Souths being the 3rd worst defensive team already conceding 92 tries in 2024 - think this could be a smash spot for the Storm. Storm’s left side has been excellent this year, after the injury of Coates, Anderson has been shining on the inside of Howarth, both really young, talented, athletic guys and someone who we’ve made a lot of money on this year. However, I’m looking towards their right edge for tonights POTD. Jahrome Hughes has been in great form and as the starting right half, think he is going to run at that weak left edge of Souths who has not only a fill-in second gamer but the dumbest man in NRL with Taane Milne as his centre. Souths have conceded 17 tries to right wingers, by far the most of any position playing them and the most of any other team. I would expect a clinical Storm performance to launch some traffic into that weak edge, look for Papunhuyzen to slot in that edge and pass through the hands for Warbrick who’s a solid, consistent finisher in decent form with 8 tries in 17 starts. Locked this price in earlier in the week but think it’s a seriously good look considering the defensive woes for Souths, expecting a big bounceback from the Storm and to continue their run towards finals footy. Lock in Will Warbrick for today’s POTD - 2 Units. GL and see you tomorrow!
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Tracking Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx_9_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL_Hp8jaV/pubhtml
Posted Aug 7, 2024, 11:00 PM UTC