Source
r/poker•
metsmonkey

Hand analysis from MP

This is a 0.15/0.30 game.

Player in the Big blind has 176 bb available.

I am in MP with 126bb Qd10d

UTG folds, I make my standard open at the table to 3bb. It folds around to BB and they call

Pot 6.5bb

Flop: 3d9hQh

BB checks, I cbet 2bb. BB raises to 8.6bb. I call putting the pot to 24bb

Turn 4d

BB bets 17bb. I call with my top pair + flush draw. Pot now 58bb

River Kd

BB bets 52bb and I tank. I have 2nd nut flush. Ad9d, Ad2d, and Ad5d I felt could reasonably play like this and have me crushed here. I call instead of shoving the additional 46bb I have behind.

BB reveals KsQh and I take down the pot.

How was this hand played? Calling the raise on the flop was likely a mistake as there are a lot of hands that have me crushed from that spot. Was the cbet too low to induce a raise like that? Did I miss out on value by not shoving on the river? What is realistically calling a shove that I beat?

Thank you

Posted Jan 3, 2023, 12:10 AM UTC

28
[deleted]•

[deleted]

4
DirkDigler925•

So if hero shoves on the river how often is he getting called by worse?

Would you call if hero shoves on you in this spot if say you have a set,top two or a small flush?

1
mug3nMasochistic Donkey that loves Spins•

Often. It's micros, people don't like to fold two pair plus. Additionally, micro stakes villains almost do not ever give you credit for hitting a backdoor flush.

1
DirkDigler925•

Copy

1
[deleted]•

[deleted]

1
metsmonkeyOP•

Thank you for sharing your opinion and please excuse my ignorance. Can you please elaborate as to what other hands you would be putting the opponent on there at river with the way they played it?

every single backdoor flush

Which of them are raising the flop like that? I have the Qd so I block any combination of QdX. That leaves 9dX combinations of... Ad9d that has us beat? Would 8d9d or 9dJd really be raising that big on the flop?

every 2 pair

I block a Q. Q9 could be playable from SB I guess, but Q3? So you have K9 which hits on the river. A9 could be a hand that plays like this, but doesn't hit the 2 pair and doesn't pay on the river. You have what the opponent ended up having with KQ at limited combinations.

sets

I have one of the queens, so that limits it to 1 QQ. QQ and KK have a decent number of 3 bets pre. 44 wouldn't push on that flop so you have 33 and 99 combinations that pay you out?

1
[deleted]•

[deleted]

2
Few_Confection_2782•

Just because you are mostly right.. doesn’t mean you aren’t an asshole. Just sayin’.. good logic though I suppose. We are really in the weeds with this one.

1
crittendenlane•

I think it was really helpful for everyone, they’re not making a real character judgement on OP. Just tough love slapping them to wake up and realize they actually need to grind it out (I am also in that boat)

1
mug3nMasochistic Donkey that loves Spins•

Monsters under the bed syndrome to me personally. If you're only ever locking them on Ace high flush draws when they take this line (and not to mention it's a backdoor flush draw as well, which are much harder to hit than frontdoor ones obviously), well, you're missing out on a lot of value. 2nd made nut flush most certainly has at least 80% equity share in this pot at this point and I think it's a crime to not value shove here.

I suggest playing around with a range equity calculator like Flopzilla and develop a sense of what villain's range could be like in this spot and see for yourself.

EDIT: Here's something I cobbled together really quickly in Flopzilla to verify my 80% equity claim. Obviously my range that I assigned villain could always be off, I gave him a pretty conservative preflop range. But assuming V only ever calls your river shove with two pair plus here, you still have 83% equity in this hand. Even if you removed two pairs entirely from his calling range (so only sets or better), you're still at 76%. Let's further assume he's somehow a meganit that doesn't bet-call even sets here, so just the straight (JT) and flushes, you still have 67% equity with 2nd nuts. You have an insane amount of equity here and you squandered it by just flatting.

1
metsmonkeyOP•

I appreciate your response and showing that to me. My back door came in so that means that the other person's would too... and I got so focused on the A2, A5, A9 bluff on the flop coming back and crushing me with the way the hand was played.

KK, if not 3 bet pre, can play that way,the only combination of QQ could play that way. KQ plays that way. 99 or 33 play that way. All of those hands give value to the shove when compared to just the 3 boogeyman hands I was afraid of

1