Here's one of the free tools I created for you, at the site here:

Assessing strength of schedule for RB/WR/TE.

It substitutes the old posts I used to make for this Reddit forum, "Tiered Flex But OK". Today's post is about how to make best use of the updated version.

It's one of those tools mentioned in my Free Stuff Video. I wanted to highlight it now, because I gave it a makeover during the off-season, and I think the improvements make it more useful for you than it used to be on Reddit.

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Contents:

• What makes the tool's model more useful than the alternative?
• What's goes into the numbers?
• What is that WR trend?
• How to make best use of the charts.

Snapshot of the ROS tables for RB, WR, and TE. Sortable by column.

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What makes the tool's model more useful than the alternative?

My old Reddit column was called "Tiered Flex, but OK". The charts needed a better user interface, so now they live in a more usable form on the website. (Column sorting is really essential.)

Is strength of schedule even meaningful? Well, early in the season it's debatable. Definitely we can't trust weekly estimates a couple months from now. For example, we don't know what injuries will occur. However, it is worth considering strength-of-opponent in the near-term, to gain some statistical advantage. With 2 weeks of data behind us, judging opponents is a bit more reliable than it was at the draft. Yes, it will be even more meaningful after week 3.

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The overall purpose of the chart is to provide an improvement on "fantasy points against". I'm referring to data like "the Cowboys defense has allowed 9 fantasy points per game to RBs." I've written before about just how poor fantasy-points-allowed is: here on the site (the article first appeared here on Reddit).

There are at least a couple reasons these charts/models are an improvement. (1) I've built the model to optimally account for strength of offense. That means: if the defense has faced a really good TE previously, my method will not over-inflate "points allowed to TE". (2) It's also more trustworthy because of the other numbers that go into it. See the next section.

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What goes into the numbers?

The models go beyond fantasy points alone. It's all about honing in on the most significant parameters which best make future predictions. For example, efficiency metrics like opponent rushing yards allowed per drive-- or similar things-- might be better at predicting RB fantasy points. Volume metrics like past rushing TDs might signal more about the future production, better than relying on past RB fantasy points alone. And the RB/WR/TE models are all developed with the same statistical significance tests and cross-validation as the streaming models.

I divide each flex position model into two components: team baseline and deviations. The baseline is the amount of fantasy points the whole team will score for that position. It takes in historical fantasy points, betting lines, etc. Same-team parameters play a big part. For example, for an RB, his teams' recent WR group performance definitely has an effect. (They compete for the same fantasy points to some extent, after accounting for overall team elevation.)

Example showing the columns: Baseline, deviations, and averages.

But the deviations are even more interesting. Based on defensive characteristics of the opponent like yards allowed (rushing/passing) and TDs allowed, and turnovers, and weather, and bye weeks, and my future game score projections, these deviations tell you how likely your players are to have an easier week. Or a rougher week.

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What is that WR trend?

You might notice the WR chart turning from somewhat-bluer to somewhat-redder, from week 1 to week 16. It is due to a real historical trend of less fantasy scoring over the weeks.

WR fantasy production usually steadily declines by 10% over the course of the season.

I never heard of this phenomenon before, so I was surprised to discover it. But it's a real thing, and if it's new to you, I hope you'll think it's a pretty cool insight. Here is a chart of average WR scoring across weeks (black line). The other lines show 3-year groupings of averages, to demonstrate how consistent it has been.

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How to make best use the charts.

There are 3 ways to use the charts. (Well, maybe you have others. But I see 3.)

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• (1) Assess the current week match-up, for lineup decisions. Easy.
  • Examples of worse situations: I really wish Jerome Ford had a better outlook right after picking him up. Also Conner's week 3 outlook is also not as promising as last week (or week 1. Week 4 looks worse). Similar week 3 risk with Diggs and Hopkins.
  • Examples of better situations: good week 3 opportunities for Mattison, Jacobs, Etienne. Should be a boom week for Davante Adams and Pickens. Bounce-back chance for Freiermuth after that week 2.
  • Pay more attention to the extreme situations. In particular, consider "does this week look like the best week my player will face all season?" (Or the worst week of the season.)

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• (2) Sort by weekly "Avg" to consider the remaining season difficulty .
  • This can help decide who to keep on your roster, vs. who you drop.
  • Examples of better situations: Davante and Nico look to have the easiest path. Aaron Jones, Jacobs, and Sanders too.
  • Examples of worse situations: Sadly the Eagles and Ravens receivers AND rushers have the toughest outlook, based on future opponents.

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Example (3) Using near-term outlook to assess strategic rostering and possible trades.

• (3) Considering near-term weeks for strategic drops and trade proposals.
  • Sort the chart by the "Next 4" column. That gives near-term strength of schedule.
  • The guys with best near-term outlook?
    • Look for possible buy-low candidates. Add / trade for them. Consider buying into the ones who have had tough schedules recently. Refer to the previous weeks (click the "Show" button to see previous weeks), to judge if their slump was possibly due to opponent. Mattison looks like a possible buy-low despite Akers. Allgeier might be a short-term buy, to ideally sell high later in the next month. Nico Collins should be a buy-- despite a poor outlook for the current week, the months ahead are much brighter.
  • Those with worse near-term outlooks?
    • Possibly more droppable-- hopefully your league-mate even gets frustrated after picking them up-- and drops them again. Even better if things line up with bye week add/drops.
    • Possibly consider sell-high candidates. If your guy has had an easier schedule but the next month looks rough, then it might be the right time to sell. Jerome Ford might be sell high already. Dotson and Hopkins might be sell while you can. They've had better recent opportunities, and the upcoming stretch looks tougher.

I know those might be terrible suggestions. There are more considerations than opponent alone. But please don't miss the main point: Consider the chart as an opportunity to make better informed decisions.

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TL;DR -- The overall purpose is I hope you can feel like you make good use from this tool and the models behind it: (1) Weekly line-up decisions, (2) roster-hold decisions, and (3) trade / waivers analysis. And it's free just like the other stuff I posted about for you in the Free Stuff Video!

/Subvertadown