"Tiered Flex but OK" -- week 7 Rest-Of-Season charts (RB / WR / TE)
Explanatory text at the bottom. Before commenting with questions, please check out my FAQs.
Note that accuracy is tracked in my round-up post; all positions' accuracies are pretty much on track for the season. RB had a bad week 6.
RB
WR
External analysis of WR / CB matchups
TE
Quick recap: what are these?
Total-team fantasy-point projections, for each position. Standard scoring. You still need to guess the splits for yourself (and things like CB coverage for example). The intention is to improve upon the idea of making lineup decisions according to fantasy-points-allowed (which I showed was very weakly predictive in this post), by instead using multi-factor models (similar to my D/ST and kicker models). These RB/WR/TE models still do include "fantasy points allowed" as one input, but only to the (small) extent it is statistically verified to be forward-predictive. There are also 2-5 other opponent variables in each model. Accuracy results come weekly. A couple other notes:
- The charts are ordered according to near-term point value, with decreasing weighting on future weeks (bye weeks are not counted 0).
- The charts reflect how all scores would project to look if they were played within the current week, accounting for current-week injuries/absences etc. Maybe not ideal, but it would get very complicated otherwise.
How to use them?
I still see a lot of people are trying to compare different players within the same week. That might work if you can assign splits (1 workhorse getting 14 points is better than 19 points split between 2 players). So feel free to do that, if you think you can.
But the way I use the charts is:
- Compare the current week number to all the other weeks of the season-- is it below-average or above-average for that team?
- Then compare the current week to the previous week(s) and the player performance-- Has the player performed well and the outlook is now better? Or did the player underperform and the outlook is now even worse? Did the player follow the expected trend, or is he scoring more randomly?
Reminder, that these charts are no longer included in my Patreon because I've brought them straight to Reddit; the D/ST and kicker ROS charts are still at Patreon for now, though. I hope these are useful for you, and good luck!
Simple text rankings . . . . . My FAQ . . . . . D/ST . . . . . Kicker . . . . . QB. . . . Accuracy Round-up . . . . .
Posted Oct 21, 2020, 11:38 AM UTC · edited