All-22: Offensive struggles against the Bills and whether Tim Boyle can make the Jets a somewhat functional offense
Fresh off a defensive penalty, the Jets call a rare play action pass on first down. Garrett Wilson and Jeremy Ruckert run verticals with a switch release, and Ruckert gets behind the flat defender for an easy first down. However, Zach Wilson appears to never even look at him and checks it down to Breece Hall, who drops it. No doubt that Breece needs to catch this ball, but I have no idea why Zach doesn't throw it to Ruckert. It's a simple 1-2 read and the flat defender gains no depth. This would be one of the easiest first downs we could ask for.
On yet another third and forever, the Jets run Nathaniel Hackett's favorite shot play, which is "everyone run downfield in a straight line" but with three verticals and two checkdowns this time. For some reason, the Bills run a Tampa 2, which this concept actually can beat. If Zach had time, you would love to see him work Gipson in the slot against the linebacker, but the safety hangs over it long enough to open a window to hit Garrett Wilson on the sideline. Garrett slows down a little, expecting a ball on the sideline right at the sticks, but Zach puts it 5 or 10 yards past them, leading Garrett directly into a collision with the safety. I'm not going to knock him that much for not converting a 3rd and 20, but there's very much a window here that he misses.
On the first play of this drive, the Jets come out with their three TEs and practice squad WR Jason Brownlee on the field. In a turn of events that absolutely everyone but Nathaniel Hackett saw coming, the Jets run Breece Hall straight up the middle into a loaded box for a gain of 0 yards. From the back view, you can see the playside inside linebacker already in the hole before the ball is even handed off, and the Sam LB is crashing so hard inside that Jeremy Ruckert doesn't have a chance to make the block. Not a single Bills defender but the deep safety is even considering the possibility of a pass.
The Jets run a mesh concept for Garrett Wilson against a very obvious blitz look, and we have a chance to hit Garrett Wilson in space. Unfortunately, Dalvin Cook has absolutely no idea what he's doing in pass protection. The Bills have 5 players on the line against our 5 OL, so there are 1 on 1 matchups across the board. Cook is responsible for the extra man, and he has to work inside out. That means the most dangerous blitzer in the A gap (the Mike LB) and if he doesn't come, most likely the nickel on the left. For some reason, despite the Mike making it very obvious that he's blitzing as Gipson goes in motion, Cook decides to go to the right side and block nobody. Zach has no chance to throw this ball anywhere and another drive is dead in the water.
I'll be honest, I really don't like how often we run these plain RB screens. I like them even less when we block it like this. The single most important thing for the linemen coming out on a screen like this is to cover up whoever has the back. On this play, that's #25, who comes flying up from the Will LB position. Chris Glaser, whose name I had to look up for this, should probably be the one getting him, but instead, Zach has to throw this ball in the dirt. This is not the first time this exact issue has happened and it probably won't be the last.
On a second and long, Nathaniel Hackett once again dials up the "3 TEs and a blocking WR" formation. Unsurprisingly, the Jets run directly up the middle into a loaded box and gain nothing. When Breece Hall takes this handoff, 10 of the 11 Bills are within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage. To me, this one is even worse than the last one because it immediately brings up a third and long. (Spoiler alert, that third and long is a sack.)
I included this one to show that play action actually sometimes works. On first down, instead of our classic run up the middle, Zach Wilson gives an actually believable play fake that, combined with Laken Tomlinson pulling, draws in the linebackers and opens a hole for Jeremy Ruckert to make a 13 yard catch for a first down. We even send Garrett Wilson on a corner-post that would be a great option if the Bills played this more aggressively and kept a safety in the box.
Zach Wilson runs a play-action rollout here out of shotgun with Jeremy Ruckert trying (and not really succeeding that much) to contain the edge and leak out for a late flat. Zach is able to break contain and get on the edge, but then he gets greedy. Instead of hitting an open Ruckert for a gain of maybe 5 yards, he tries to force the ball across his body to CJ Uzomah. He never sees the corner sitting in the flat, who should pick this ball off. A perfect throw might get through, but this ball wouldn't be catchable if there were no defenders on the field.
And on the very next play, the Bills do come up with the interception they should've had a play ago. This is one of the rare times that Zach actually plays with anticipation, getting the ball out before Garrett is even out of his break. The problem is that the corner is not worried about getting beaten deep and is staring at Zach the entire time. As soon as the ball is in the air, he's breaking on it before Garrett is. If you watch the back view, you can see that Zach doesn't even look to that side until the back of his drop, when he's already made up his mind to throw the ball. Looking off a safety is one thing, but you can't do that if you're not going to recognize the coverage. I also will add that this is not a great route from Garrett Wilson, and he should break this pass up by coming back to the ball more. Still, against this coverage, Lazard is the only one remotely open, and Zach picks the left side to read first, this ball should go to the checkdown.
Even when we dial up a shot to our best receiver, it's the most unimaginative playcall we could come up with. The Bills are in a combo coverage, and Garrett Wilson is manned up on the boundary side with a half-field safety overtop of him. The corner is playing trail coverage, and the safety is running to that side the moment Zach looks over. It's hard to tell if Zach tries to back-shoulder him or just underthrows it, but Garrett has to go overtop of the corner to try to pull this ball in while getting hit by the safety, and is probably out of bounds even if he can catch it. I know that Garrett is a ridiculously good separator, but we rely on that way too much instead of trying to actually scheme him open.
Yet another Hackett special. Third and long, facing a man coverage look where the safeties rotate into Cover 1, and we run all verticals and stop routes. At the top of his drop, Zach Wilson steps up to avoid the pressure and not a single receiver has a yard of separation. Tyler Conklin and Garrett Wilson are both effectively doubled, and Allen Lazard and Xavier Gipson might as well have told the corners what routes they were running. These types of playcalls show up constantly with Hackett, and they almost never work.
This was kind of a "nothing" play, but there's so much going on here that I felt like I had to include it. On third and medium, the Bills come out in a pressure look, but the deep safety is so far off of Tyler Conklin that you would almost expect the Bills to drop out of this. That's exactly what they do, but the Jets line is sliding to the right as if all 6 guys are coming, leaving the left edge defender unblocked. You would like to see Carter Warren gain more depth so that as soon as he sees the A gap players drop out, he can recover back out to the edge player, but he doesn't. With the line sliding to the right though, Zach is hot off the left side, but instead of throwing hot into the blitz, which is what you should typically do as a QB, he's looking to the bottom. And then instead of throwing to Conklin or Breece Hall, he decides to spin back to the left side. The escapability is pretty impressive, but what he should probably be doing is taking one step and hitting Garrett Wilson in the flat on the left. Something else to note here is that Xavier Gipson is not even running a route and is literally just looking to set a pick, which is a strange route combination because a slant-flat accomplishes the same potential pick while also giving Zach an option if the corner sits on the flat. Probably the most difficult way we could've picked up 4 yards on that third and 6.
On the following 4th down, we pick up the first down on a mesh concept to Breece Hall. Mesh is a super common play at all levels of football because it's an easy left-to-right or right-to-left read and has answers against man and zone. However, the way we run it, there are 2 options, neither of which are likely there against zone. Garrett Wilson is the first read on a fade route, and this is pretty much an alert where if Zach likes the matchup, he can throw it. Zach comes off of this really quickly, to his second read, which is Breece coming across on the drag. The problem I have with this concept is that Allen Lazard and Xavier Gipson are doing absolutely nothing but trying to get in the way of the defender on Breece. If this is zone coverage, not only is Breece not open, but neither are Gipson or Lazard. We get lucky here, especially since you could argue that Gipson sets an illegal pick, but the route concept just does not have enough opportunities for guys to get open.
Garrett Wilson had by far his worst game I've ever seen, but it's probably better that he drops this one. This is another case of Nathaniel Hackett calling the worst possible play against the coverage that the Bills are in, and Zach either not seeing it or not having the authority to check out of it. I'm all for the misdirection and trying to get Garrett on a tunnel screen on the backside, but you simply cannot expect this play to succeed against press man coverage. Especially without a blocker sprinting directly at that corner as soon as the ball is snapped. Carter Warren, the closest blocker, is stepping down and hitting the edge before he gets out, and it looks like that's his assignment (as opposed to him just making a mistake). It feels like they drew this play up and practiced it against off coverage, without even a thought as to what to do if Garrett gets pressed.
This was Zach's last play before he got benched, and it's a play that an NFL QB has to make. The route concept is yet another 4 verticals, but at least this one has Xavier Gipson coming underneath on a slant from the outside. There's a window to hit this in the spot that the #2 and #3 receivers clear out for him, and he would have a 1-on-1 with a LB to pick up 6 yards and a first down. No other receivers are going to be open, as the Bills are in a Cover 4 and sitting overtop of everyone. But for whatever reason, Zach does not throw it. I can't really tell if he doesn't look at Gipson until it's too late, or if he sees him on time and just turns it down because he sees the hook-curl defender, but that ball has to be out at the top of his drop to give Gipson a chance. Instead, it's a sack on third down that leads to a punt.
Tim Boyle is in, and you can see immediately the understanding of the game that he has. With the Bills bringing a potential 6 players against a 5 man protection, Boyle is going to have to account for one of them. He slides the protection to the left to pick up those three defenders (the 2 DL and #43), and Max Mitchell and Chris Glaser have the 2 most dangerous out of the three on the right. When that third defender comes, Boyle is hot and needs to hit the hot read, which he tries to do. That hot read is Dalvin Cook, who has no idea that he's the hot on this play. Instead of looking for the ball as soon as the third defender on the right side blitzes, Cook runs his normal route, and the ball lands incomplete. I know people had their issues with Michael Carter, but Cook is a significant step down in the passing game.
Final play of the game on offense for us, and it fittingly ends on an interception. I honestly don't blame Boyle that much for this, it's 4th down and the ball has to be thrown. He picks the left side of the field to work, and there's nothing there. He comes off of it on time, but the right side of the field is running a stick and quick out and it's not really something you can be late on. But with an unblocked defender off the edge because Carter Warren and Laken Tomlinson can't pass off the stunt, Boyle doesn't have time not to throw this. It'd be a great throw, if the flat defender wasn't sitting outside ready to jump on the stick route. If this is on third down, it's a really bad interception, but on fourth, it's better than a sack because at least it gives us a chance.
Full disclosure, I'm not even touching the problems we have on the offensive line. We're down to our 14th(?) OL combination and it's not getting better this week. I'm also not feeling the need to break down the drops and the fumbles and the lack of separation from the receivers, which you don't even need to understand football to point out. What I was interested to see was if this offense might look a little better with Tim Boyle replacing Zach Wilson.
And the conclusion I'm coming to is ...I'm not really sure? I think Boyle is definitely at least ahead of Zach before the snap, as well as reading a defense. Not that Boyle is particularly good in either of those regards, just that Zach is not. The quick passing game might get a bit of a boost as well, Boyle was mostly accurate on those throws. However, Zach's mobility helped make some plays out of nothing, and we lose all of that now. What's most obvious is the glaring issues outside of QB that aren't going anywhere. Our receivers are terrible outside of Garrett Wilson, the offensive line is in shambles, and Hackett is the worst offensive coordinator I think I've ever watched. So while Boyle (or Trevor Siemian) may prove to be a tiny upgrade, if anyone thinks that we'll suddenly look like even a normal bottom-tier NFL offense, I would say not to get your hopes up.
Posted Nov 21, 2023, 10:33 PM UTC
I hope I haven't dumbly argued with you on here before lol
Lmao