Welcome to 2024! It's been a busy off-season, so now I'm psyched to finally share new developments. (Some others highlighted here)

Instead of my usual kicking-off the season with D/ST, today I wanted to give you a public service reminder: Try and use these Strength-Of-Schedule charts, to make better informed decisions for drafting your RB, WR, and TE. I would say especially useful for later round picks. These are 17-week charts for estimating the "difficulty of upcoming games".

• WR standard
• RB standard
• TE standard

And... Woohoo! For the first time, my charts move beyond standard scoring! A lot of you requested this. Now you can toggle them into PPR:

• WR ppr
• RB ppr
• TE ppr

These newer ppr charts are based on all-new, developed-from-scratch predictive models ("guided AI"), that I specifically tailored for the PPR setting.

This is how the charts appear. Use the website for the live updated versions with interactive column sorting.

To understand what's behind this free tool, I strongly recommend reading this great post that someone made last year.

But if you want a "TL;DR"... then here's a quick blurb for you:

Things to know, in short

• I created these because we cannot really trust "fantasy points allowed" charts (or "adjusted delta points allowed", etc.). They're too simplistic to be predictive. Really they just summarize historical data. More on this here.
  • I'm frankly in doubt if there's another tool similar to mine. Please clue me in if there's anything comparable! I want to know.
• To help you with draft picks, I recommend that you sort the charts by the column labeled "Next 4". Then you'll see which teams might have a positional advantage in the coming month. You can also try to sort by the column "Avg".
• No, strength of schedule not the decisive factor for your draft. It is an extra facet of strategy, after you account for the other pros+cons of a player. Especially use it for later draft picks!!! It might give you a few extra points in the short term, and it might set you up for timing later trades, etc.
• As always, many chart predictions will turn out wrong. That's always true. But it's a beneficial fantasy strategy to make statistical gambles. Historical data supports that guessing opponents' strengths is more often right than wrong-- even in pre-season.
• Yes, expect some discrepancies. I expect differences from points-allowed charts; otherwise I've added nothing! And sometimes the strength of schedules will look different between standard and PPR. (Looking at you LaPorta.)

Please you are welcome to comment below with any observations or your interpretations, regarding ADP etc. And feel free to comment with any numbers that look too surprising. As always I did put a lot of effort to adjust for off-season roster changes, but there can always be something I missed.

Looking ahead

I'll come back later, in September, with a refresher about "How to make best use of the charts", because it will later become useful for add/drop/sit decisions as well as trades.

In the meantime, let me know if you have questions! You can ask general questions (about Subvertadown models) at this post. I love to talk too much about what goes into these, but I also don't want to bore you. And I know that right now there are urgent decisions to make.

So good luck with drafting, and let's get ready for an awesome 2024.

/Subvertadown