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To Go Forward You Must Go Back: TWoW Resource - End of 2024 Edition (Spoilers Extended)

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Background

Almost 4 years ago (April 2021), BFish shared a TWoW Resource Update. And while I am not talented enough as BFish to create an update like that, I thought that it was time for a new one. In this one I thought it would be a good idea to not only include information on what TWoW could be about, but also some of the meta stuff and changes that GRRM has made in the past that can help us look toward the future.

"New" Source Material

While users have made visits to Cushing Library in the past (most famously probably being u/_honeybird 's visit which established that Benjen was not Coldhands), more recently we had a user who visited numerous times and put together a series of posts that have definitely shaped my views on where the series is headed:

u/gsteff visited Cushing Library and made several amazing posts regarding GRRM's drafts:

In addition to the visits to Cushing, u/zionius_ was able to get their hands on an image of GRRM's 2003-2004 outline of AFFC that has also given the reader a good amount of information on what GRRM was planning (at the time at least):

Roads Not Taken/Abandoned Plotlines

Since the original three page outline (back when ASOIAF was just a trilogy), GRRM has made numerous changes to the series ranging from expanding the series several more times to abandoning a 5 year gap. The above changes are well known, but it seems that GRRM has made several other small changes that continue to have ripple effects on the plot:

The lists goes on and on. Please check out some of the Cushing posts for more examples!

Book Information

# of Pages/Progress

The book is expected to be ~1800 manuscript pages (longer than ASOS & ADWD) and according to GRRM most recently he is about 75% done with it.

u/werthead has an amazing post on GRRM's progress from December 2022: Combining GRRM's Recent Comments On Winds

# of POVs

The Released Chapters

From BFish's blogpost (archived link above and in sidebar) you can see there is much more information on what will happen than just the released chapters that said, in this post my goal was to focus on looking at these chapters in a different light and not the known information on the book in totality (maybe another day).

Alayne I (Sansa)

Mercy I (Arya)

Arianne I, II

Barristan I, II (Barristan II is only available in fan summary)

Tyrion I, II (Tyrion I is only available in fan summary)

Victarion I (the second half of the chapter is only available in fan summary)

The Forsaken

Theon I

Asha Fragment (only a small fragment available)

Prologue (Jeyne Westerling will appear but is not necessarily the POV)

On a GoT panel, GRRM mentioned that while Robb's wife Talisa has died on the show, her literary counterpart Jeyne Westerling “is still alive – and will be seen in the prologue of The Winds of Winter.”

He later added:

“I didn’t say she was the viewpoint character,” he explained. “I said she was in the prologue It’s the viewpoint character who always dies,” he says. “I like to break rules. Just when I get it established what the rule is, I like to break it. So maybe the viewpoint character will die in the prologue, and maybe they won’t.”

If interested: Whitesmile Wat: TWOW Prologue POV?

Location Plot Points for Discussion

A few years ago, u/Narsil13 helped me put together a post which had a map of all the current POVs and their locations (character art by TheMico):

Beyond the Wall

POV: Bran Stark

Bran sits in the Cave of the Last Greenseer, with Bloodraven. Currently he has access to any weirwood/heart tree in the Seven Kingdoms but should be able to "see beyond the trees" at some point.

It should be noted that due to Bran's ability to see, numerous plot points in other storylines could be revealed in Bran's chapters. We will likely see Bran/Bloodraven interfere in some way in a couple different plotlines.

Confirmed Plot Points

  • Hodor will "Hold the Door" in some way (defending a pass or doorway)
  • GRRM will explore time travel a bit
  • Bloodraven took Dark Sister to the Wall with him

If interested: Beyond the Wall in TWOW & Bran's Dark TWOW Storyline

Castle Black

POV: Melisandre, Jon Snow

There are 19 total castles on the Wall and Jon Snow had started to man them before his execution at the hands of some of his brothers. Stannis has chosen to make the Nightfort his seat.

Confirmed Plot Points

  • Mel will return as a POV (Jon is still unconfirmed, although very likely)
  • Shireen Baratheon is burned alive

If interested: The Castle Black Plotline in The Winds of Winter

Ghost Stories of Ice and Fire and Potential Arrivals at the Wall in TWOW

Skagos

POV: Davos

Davos is headed to Skagos to rescue Rickon/Shaggy for Manderly/Stannis. The return to the plot of Rickon could have some interesting consequences for the claim to Winterfell.

Confirmed Plot Points

  • We will see more of Osha
  • We will see unicorns (enormous 1 horned goats)

If interested: Everything We Know About Skagos

Outside Winterfell

POV: Asha, Theon

Stannis sits not "3 days ride" from Winterfell in the Crofter's Village. The forces of the Manderlys, Freys and Ramsay Bolton have been sent out to attack him (Battle of Ice). While the Pink Letter claims the result of the battle, the author of the letter is debatable (even possible it was Ramsay with false info).

While not canon, I am a strong believer in the first half of the Nightlamp Theory (Stannis using the terrain/false beacon to his advantage).

Confirmed Plot Points

If interested: The Showdown at the Tree

The Riverlands

POV: Jaime, Brienne

This is probably my favorite plotline as I need to know how both Jaime/Brienne survive this perilous situation. While the Lannisters/Freys control Riverrun and Harrenhal, outside of the major the Riverlands are ruled by the Brotherhood without Banners.

If interested: The Red Wedding 2.0: Foreshadowing, Theories, & Parallels & The Plotline We Have the Least Info About...

Prologue

POV: Unknown (Jeyne Westerling will appear)

At the end of AFFC, Ser Forley Prester leads a party to the westerlands that includes the Westerlings, a large escort as well as Edmure Tully (among others). I argued here that Whilesmile Wat could potentially be the POV. I will also note that while very cool, unless GRRM does some retcons, the POV can't be Ser Ilyn Payne (he remained at Riverrun with Jaime).

Confirmed Plot Points

  • Jeyne Westerling will appear

The Vale

POV: Sansa

The knights of the Vale have avoided the bloodshed of the War of the Five Kings, but many are set to take part in a tourney to join the 8 member Brotherhood of Winged Knights to defend Sweetrobin. Harry the Heir is in attendance and there are probably at least a few different characters who at least suspect Alayne's true identity.

If interested: The Lords Declarant & Ser Shadrich of the Shady Glen aka The Mad Mouse

King's Landing

POV: Cersei

Cersei is on trial for numerous crimes, but she has chosen trial by battle with her champion being Robert Strong. While this trial could go numerous ways (Trial of the Seven - Qyburn does have six other prisoners), the best info we have is Cersei winning her trial (from TWOW, Mercy, although a bit ambiguous)

If interested: The Current Situation in King's Landing

Storm's End

POV: JonCon, Arianne

While we will likely get a JonCon chapter of the attack, in TWOW, Arianne II, we are told that the Golden Company has taken the castle. Based on Varys' quote, they will use the castle as a staging ground (lords of the realm gathering around them), while they press Aegon VI's claim on the Iron Throne.

Confirmed Plot Points

  • The Golden Company claims to have taken Storm's End (as well as a good portion of the Stormlands and half the Stepstones)

If interested: The Battle of Steel & Arianne Martell in The Winds of Winter

Oldtown

POV: Aeron, Sam

Sam is at the Citadel hoping to learn to become a maester, while Aeron is lashed to the prow of the Silence as Euron approaches Oldtown in order to give battle to ritually sacrifice the Redwyne Fleet, etc.

That said, the Hightowers are preparing defenses, with Lord Leyton in his High Castle.

If interested: Leyton Hightower: A Decade atop the Hightower

Dorne

POV: Areo Hotah

Our favorite "camera that rides", is pursuing the rogue knight Darkstar (of the Night) with Obara and Balon Swann. It should be noted that this plotline could potentially be how GRRM introduces the sword Dawn to the plot.

If interested: The Showdown at High Hermitage

____

and then if we travel through the Stepstones/across the Narrow Sea:

Essos

Braavos

POV: Arya

GRRM could potentially write novels about Arya's adventures in Braavos, but is focused on solely doing what is necessary for the story. At the end of Mercy, Arya crosses another name off her list, but she is continuing to dream about Westeros.

Confirmed Plot Points

  • Arya can no longer be Mercy
  • Raff the Sweetling dies
  • The "Queen" sent Harys Swift to get gold (while this could be changed, this likely means Cersei wins her trial)

If interested: Let's talk about Braavos in The Winds of Winter

Slaver's Bay

POV: Barristan, Victarion, Tyrion

The Battle of Fire is starting off in the earlier moments of TWOW, with "Team Dany" seemingly doing pretty well against the inept slavers. The real challenges seems likely to begin after the battle when dragons, horns and a power vacuum should affect the plot.

If interested: The Battle of Fire: The Second Sons & The Path Back to Westeros: Before Leaving Slaver's Bay

The Dothraki Sea

POV: Daenerys

At the end of ADWD, Daenerys (and Drogon) are being confronted by the Dothraki horde of Khal Jhaqo. If this plotline is anything like the show, I would assume this is how Dany adds a real horde to her army (even though she might lose some of what is in Slaver's Bay while she is out here). I do not expect a buddy cop mission from Jorah/Daario.

Confirmed Plot Points

  • Mago will appear

If interested: To Go Forward You Must Go Back

Final Thoughts

Kong/Son of Kong

GRRM referred to ADWD as Kong and has referred to TWoW as "Son of Kong"

Chapter Naming

GRRM has stated there is a "method to has madness" for the naming conventions that began in AFFC (he stated this after a reading of TWOW, Barristan I and II which are called Ser Barristan/Ser Barristan Selmy after Barristan previous chapters were named differently).

The Opening of TWoW

GRRM plans to open The Winds of Winter with at least two (Battle of Ice/Fire) and up to four (Battle of Blood/Battle of Steel) battles.

If interested: Timeline of Opening Battle Chapters & The Magic in the Opening 4 Battles

Thanks

Thanks to u/werthead, u/zionius_, u/gsteff, u/Narsil13 as well as the rest of the mod team here for their posts and all they do. Thanks to u/InGenNateKenny for helping me with how to post better as I was fed-up with reddit's newest interface and wouldn't have been able to finish this in time without it.

TLDR: My best effort at an update on everything The Winds of Winter ranging from progress, to released chapters, changed/abandoned plotlines, etc. Obviously I didn't hit every single confirmed plot point (use BFish's better version for that) but feel free to mention/ask questions!

Posted Dec 31, 2024, 4:42 PM UTC

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