Help with Harkone itinerary

Hey guys, What would you suggest for our Harkone itinerary, we will be staying at Eblem Flow for one night on Monday April 14th and coming from Kyoto.

Should I try to take the earlier Hikari 642 train leaving Kyoto at 8:33 arriving at 10:38, do the loop that day and check into hotel, then do open air museum in the morning. We have a romance car booked on Tuesday April 15th from Hakone-Yumoto at 15:13 to Shinjuku.

The other option is sleep in and not rush in the morning, take the 10:33 Hikari from Kyoto arriving at Odawara at 12:38, we would do the open air museum, then do the full loop in the morning the next day. Would be make it back to Hakone-Yumoto by 15:13 to catch our train? I'm worried because i've read stories of the buses getting crowed and not running on time. We could do the opposite loop once doing the pirate ship and go back to Eblem flow to get our bags and skip the bus if that is quicker.

Thank you!