Last-minute SAG predictions

Best Ensemble

One Battle After Another

Alternate: Sinners

Yeah I made the swap. Sinners feels like such a SAG Ensemble winner, but looking at their history OBAA makes more sense to me. Whenever they deviate from the Oscar frontrunner, it’s because the frontrunner is not an ensemble type movie and/or the eventual SAG winner just has a much flashier ensemble (think American Hustle, where everyone is capital A acting for the entire runtime). I don’t think either holds true for Sinners necessarily. One Battle After Another has not missed a beat with the industry and while I can see this be the place it falters, I don’t want to bet on it.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Alternate: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

God, I wish Byrne could shock us. But it’s not gonna happen.

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Alternate: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Very close race, as we all know. What gives Timmy the edge is that his role is way, way flashier than Jordan’s. Marty Supreme overperformed here, so even though it has less nominations than Sinners it still did very well here. I’m definitely nervous about this but hoping for the best.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Alternate: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

I’ll be fully honest, the near-consensus among the ballot poll is what swayed me. Yeah it’s not a ton of the voting body, but the sample size is adequate enough to see trends. And surely selection bias isn’t so massively misleading? But beyond that, Madigan has by far the buzziest and flashiest performance in this category. Teyana and Wumni have excellent chances though, it could definitely just be one of them

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Alternate: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Basically anyone but Mescal has a fighting chance. Here’s my thought process for BDT: OBAA is too strong not to win here considering how it’s been doing so far. If Caton had any signs of life this season, I might have predicted him as a sign of Sinners strength to capitalize on their vote split, but he doesn’t. Between the two OBAA boys, BDT’s character is much more likable, and he has better standing in the industry than Penn, both factors that can play heavily into SAG. I suppose I should mention Elordi as a distinct possibility, but aside from screentime and Netflix bias he doesn’t have a lot in his favour.

As of writing they already announced stunt ensemble where I did predict Mission Impossible, so that’s everything.