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-First and most obvious: a campaign in Lead would avoid compromising a Navarette win and a Lawless nomination. This is self-explanatory, really, but Navarette will have a much easier time winning Supporting and it’s much easier for 2 actresses to make a category than 3. 

-Lead is looking really weak this year, to the point where a traditionally supporting performance like Fitzgerald’s can slip in. I mean what are we dealing with here? Sandra Huller in two no1currs? Michelle Williams in a film that keeps getting pushed? Julianne Moore in Eisenberg’s upcoming sophomore slump? All blah. Fitzgerald is more than capable of taking care of them, given her sta

With the recent discourse about Obsession I’m curious what this sub’s age demographic actually looks like. Perhaps one day we’ll get a proper survey for all interesting info but for now let’s just do age. Skewing it young because I’d imagine that reflects this subreddit

I was trying to compare ratings of a movie from the past few years to where it is now with the help of Archive.org. But I noticed that starting around 2025, archives of pages basically stop working, with Letterboxd redirecting to a page that reads "You’re accessing Letterboxd via an invalid URL. Always use Letterboxd.com."

Is there any way to get past this? Even an alternative way to see movie's past pages? Even if they remove it now I doubt it'll retroactively fix it for archived versions of the site.

Best Ensemble

One Battle After Another

Alternate: Sinners

Yeah I made the swap. Sinners feels like such a SAG Ensemble winner, but looking at their history OBAA makes more sense to me. Whenever they deviate from the Oscar frontrunner, it’s because the frontrunner is not an ensemble type movie and/or the eventual SAG winner just has a much flashier ensemble (think American Hustle, where everyone is capital A acting for the entire runtime). I don’t think either holds true for Sinners necessarily. One Battle After Another has not missed a beat with the industry and while I can see this be the place it falters, I don’t want to bet on it.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Alternat

Thought this might be helpful for prediction purposes given... recent events. In chronological order, with the eventual Oscar winner in parentheses. In cases where the Oscar winner wasn't nominated against the BAFTA winner, their name is italicized. In cases where they weren't eligible (not released the right year, in a different category, etc.), their name's in bold.

BAFTA

Jamie Bell, Billy Elliot (Oscar: Russell Crowe, Gladiator)

Jim Broadbent, Moulin Rouge (Oscar: Jim Broadbent, Iris)

Scarlet Johansson, Lost in Translation (Oscar: Charlize Theron, Monster)

Bill Nighy, Love Actually (Tim Robbins, Mystic River)

Thandiwe Newton, Crash (**Rachel Weisz, The Constant

Not gonna lie, I did dreadfully with nominations, but with how awards tend to go that may be a promising sign for this.

Best Film

One Battle After Another

Alternate: Hamnet

OBAA has shown 0 signs of weakness whatsoever, no reason to doubt it.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Alternate: Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Alternate: Emma Stone, Bugonia

Not that it matters who’s second, but I can’t see them giving it a sole nominee like Byrne and Reinsve is not the type of performance the industry awards.

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, One

I know it’s last minute and I know not many people care, but I was bored. So…

Best Film

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Sentimental Value

Alternate: Bugonia

This top 5 feels extremely strong, I’d actually be shocked if Bugonia pulled this off.

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
4. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Alternate: Lynne Ramsay, Die My Love

Ramsay did get a surprise Director nomination for We Need to Talk About Kevin, but Bugonia is a stronger contender from every possible

View Poll

Don't have a lot to say except that I tried to pick a few surprises here and there.

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. Sentimental Value
6. Frankenstein
7. Bugonia
8. Train Dreams
9. The Secret Agent

Alternate: Weapons

It’s not that IWJAA is strong, it’s that I can’t justify a reasonable alternative. A 3rd Warner Bros. movie, a populist horror no less? Yes, Amy Madigan’s happening despite that, but with her winning chances looking shaky at best, I don’t think there’s enough going for Weapons here. F1? A mid-reviewed blockbuster with 0 prestige value is absolutely the type of thing to make PGA and not the Oscars. Blue Moon? Not enough evi

I can't be the only one stressing about the last Original Screenplay spot. So, to try and reason it out, I looked at the last 10 years of both Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay and wrote down their precursors. I didn't include movies that were nominated everywhere like A Real Pain and Anora for obvious reasons.

Bold=Won a precursor

Italicized=Globe nominee

*Asterisk=eligible for WGA (aside from the ones listed under WGA)

As a refresher, here are the precursors for some of our Original Screenplay contenders this year:

WGA Eligible+Critics Choice+BAFTA Longlist

Weapons

WGA Eligible+Critics Choice

Jay Kelly

WGA Eligible+BAFTA Longlist

A House of Dynamite

Is

View Poll

As per usual I'm been stressing and overthinking these way too much, so time to lock these in. It's customary for me at Globes to list all contenders in order of likelihood no matter how low their chances of winning.

Best Motion Picture–Drama

1. Sentimental Value–Really this ultimately comes down to the fact that they nominated Elle Fanning over Wumni Mosaku. If Sinners were winning, why did that happen? It seems like a red flag, like Barbie missing Supporting Actress and Poor Things getting both Dafoe and Ruffalo in. Plus I think Sentimental Value being about filmmaking and whatnot is simply baitier than Sinners.
2. Sinners–By far the most compelling argument for this is that th