UFC 330 Fight Predictions (TL;DR)!
Hello!
I hope we’re all doing well!
Lord Ninja Choke Episode 72: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uVN0Twsez4
Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1vm70f8/ufc_330_fight_predictions/
PREDICTION STATS
Total Prediction Stats: 2423 - 1386, 215 Perfect | 580 Decision
Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 70.8% (+0.8%)
Lock Record: 34 - 7 (Thainara Won)
UFC Gamrot v Salkilld Recap
Prediction Results: 11/12 Correct
Parlay: Missed on the first leg!
Alt Bets: Montanha via Sub R1 or 2 hit, but I forgot to play it, so if you hit that, yay!
Profit/Loss for 2026: -17.8u (-4.0)
Well, prediction wise, last week was great, but betting wise, at least for tracked bets, it didn’t go to plan, if I hit that Montanha Sub thing, I think I would have been up, or at least softened the blow.
This weeks card though is barely deserving of a numbered event status, it’s kinda meh from top to bottom excluding the co-main and main event… So, i’m expecting some bumps and scrapes along the way.
Let’s get down to business!
(c) - Champ
(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
NS - No Streak
(#x) - Rank in division
x/3 - Confidence Levels
ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)
GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)
(LR) - Late Replacement
Prelims
Welterweight
Jeremiah Wells (+410) (13-4-1, NS) v Myktybek Orolbai (-600) (16-2-1, 3 FWS)
Striking: Whilst Wells has admirable boxing capabilities, I do think the well roundedness of Orolbai’s strikes, as well as the inevitable takedown and the threat of such action would accentuate Orolbai’s striking effectiveness a whole lot, since Wells may be ready to defend a takedown but not a high kick or something like that.
Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Orolbai should dominate, he is fantastic at getting those mat returns and he also is just a sticky fighter, once he has a grip, he does not let go.
Additional Notes: Not fully counting out Wells here, but yeah, those odds make some sense, Orolbai should win this one.
Prediction: Orolbai via Dec (2/3)
Welterweight
Neil Magny (-110) (31-14-0, NS) v Ramiz Brahimaj (-110) (13-6-0, NS)
Striking: Magny’s length and his cardio should allow him to fight at range at a reasonably high pace for all three rounds fine, but I do think Brahimaj brings a bit more heat to his strikes, and if that’s the case, if Magny is corralled into the cage fence, we could see some nastiness from Brahimaj which may result in Brahimaj making Magny shell up and not intelligently defend himself, resulting in a KO win for Brahimaj.
Wrestling/Grappling: This is probably a 50/50, Brahimaj is a fine grappler but I just don’t know if he can get into the grappling range in which he can successfully get the takedowns. Magny is taller and longer and could use his height and reach to negate grappling attempts.
Additional Notes: I’ll go with Magny here, I am slightly hesitant to do a R3 Starts Parlay leg, but that’s where my mind is at currently, so if i’m struggling to find parlay legs, i’ll use this as a “break glass in case of emergency” thing.
Prediction: Magny via Dec (1/3)
Light Heavyweight
Rafael Tobias (+175) (14-2-0, NS) v Lucas Fernando (D) (-200) (13-3-0, 4 FWS)
Striking: Tobias is not a great striker, he kind of fights like Ribeiro in that everything is wide and wild. Fernando on the other hand is such a clean and sharp striker, a solid guard, raised and intelligent, it’s very nice to see that in someone who uses their boxing, it’s also quite rare.
Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t think there’s gonna be much grappling nor wrestling here unless its Tobias wrestling his consciousness after getting knocked out.
Additional Notes: Looking forward to seeing Fernando here!
Prediction: Fernando via KO R2 (1/3)
Middleweight
Vicente Luque (+110) (24-12-1, NS) v Tresean Gore (-135) (6-4-0, NS)
Striking: This is where Gore would likely have his most success, on the feet, within boxing range, because he hits damn hard, but the problem is that defensively with that big ass head of his, he absorbs just as much damage that’s coming right back.
Wrestling/Grappling: Whilst Gore has decent wrestling, it’s Luque’s grappling that i’m interested to see here since Luque is a dangerous submission specialist when he’s in the right position to switch to that toolset. Otherwise, Luque is just overall a decent fighter.
Additional Notes: I suspect that Luque at Middleweight is not good for Luque’s chin, I just feel like that whole “brain bleed” thing might come back to haunt him once he feels the power of Gore.
Prediction: Gore via KO R1 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Luque via Sub R1 or 2 | Parlay: ITD
Middleweight
Donte Johnson (-235) (8-0-0, 8 FWS) v Eric McConico (+185) (11-4-1, NS)
Striking: I just can’t see either fighter having the advantage on the feet, I do like Johnsons striking though, McConico can hit reasonably hard but I just think Johnson’s speed and overall longevity of power is going to be a big factor here, longevity of power meaning he retains that power for all three rounds.
Wrestling/Grappling: I think it’s fairly even here, but I do think that McConico’s only route to victory here is to grapple and find the submission, as he has done just that in previous fights. So, because of that, he is going to be a funky Alt Bet.
Additional Notes: Interesting one here!
Prediction: Johnson via KO R2 (1/3)
Lightweight
Jalin Turner (#15) (-170) (15-9-0, NS) v Kaue Fernandes (+140) (11-2-0, 3 FWS)
Striking: Turner and his body kicks are something special, and given that Turner is both a southpaw and he’s facing someone who has a weird wonky guard times, I think we’re going to see Turner tear up that body with some fantastic roundhouse kicks. Fernandes does have speed and power on his side but the reach, height and also athleticism of Turner can make that difficult, I mean, Turner is a physical anomaly in terms of height and whatnot, preparing for that kind of opponent can be challenging.
Wrestling/Grappling: I do think Turner has a slight advantage on the ground here given his height, but again, I expect this to mostly be a striking affair.
Additional Notes: I think i’ve said what needs to be said, I just hope he brings a tarantula to the live weigh ins, that first time he did it was sick.
Prediction: Turner via KO R2 (1/3)
Welterweight
Chidi Njokuani (+190) (25-12-0, 2 FLS) v Joel Alvarez (-225) (23-4-0, NS)
Striking: I would have to give the early power threat to Njokuani, he is such a hard hitting kickboxer with lots of variation to his technique, but his age is becoming more and more of a problem and I think we’re going to see him look a little slower compared to Alvarez during this fight, as Alvarez himself has sharp striking and is quite tricky to read at times.
Wrestling/Grappling: This is ideally where Alvarez should expose Njokuani because Alvarez does have decent submissions under his belt, but for him to get to those takedown/grappling positions he has to walk through fire, especially early on!
Additional Notes: This is a fantastic fight, I don’t see it hitting the scorecards!
Prediction: Alvarez via Sub R2 (1/3) | Alt Bet: Njokuani via KO R1 or 2 (CR) | Parlay: ITD
Main Card
Lightweight
Edson Barboza (+315) (24-14-0, 3 FLS) v Esteban Ribovics (-400) (15-3-0, NS)
Striking: It always breaks my heart to watch Barboza these days, he’s just too old and too battle worn to fight well, he still carries that old man explosiveness early on, but he gets hurt a lot easier too, and Ribovics is very quick on the feet and likely can time those flurries really well.
Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t expect much wrestling to happen here, this fight feels like a striking bout to me.
Additional Notes: I hope this is Barboza’s last fight, and we get to see a nice retirement package for him, he’s one of my favourites.
Prediction: Ribovics via KO R2 (1/3)
Middleweight
Mansur Abdul-Malik (-550) (9-1-1, NS) v Dustin Stoltzfus (+410) (16-8-0, 2 FLS)
Striking: To keep it short and sweet, Abdul Malik is definitely going to try and punch a hole through Stoltzfus’s face. Stoltzfus can endure serious damage, but I don’t know if he can withstand a first round Abdul Malik.
Wrestling/Grappling: This is where Stoltzfus can turn this fight around, but I feel like he has to do it after a tumultuous first round when Abdul-Malik is slightly exhausted.
Additional Notes: Fun! Fun fun fun! (I am running out of words this write up lmao)
Prediction: Abdul Malik via KO R1 (2/3) | Lock
Flyweight
Charles Johnson (+280) (19-9-0, NS) v Jose Ochoa (-355) (9-2-0, NS)
Striking: Johnson is the Flyweight Kevin Holland in that he fights so often he fails to improve anywhere as a fighter, his athleticism is great, but he is often on the back foot, often on the defensive and often being outstruck and that’s not great since he’s facing a dangerous striker like Ochoa, I mean, look at Ochoa’s last fight, absolute destruction.
Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t expect any wrestling here, which is good for Johnson because he mostly faces wrestlers!
Additional Notes: I really did enjoy watching Ochoa v Carpenter again, what a fun one that was.
Prediction: Ochoa via KO R3 (1/3)
Co-Main Event
Women’s Strawweight Championship
Mackenzie Dern (c) (-235) (16-5-0, 3 FWS) v Gillian Robertson (#9) (+190) (17-8-0, 5 FWS)
Striking: I firmly believe that Dern has made vast improvements to her striking to bridge the gap required to become a fully well rounded MMA champ, and we saw that when she fought Jandiroba, her boxing was sharp, her ground strikes were great, her elbows on the bottom were awesome… I just don’t think Robertson can deal with that in any way without being shredded on the feet.
Wrestling/Grappling: Okay, so, Robertson and Dern are both elite level grapplers, but I give the wrestling edge to Robertson here whilst Dern has the submission edge, especially if Dern finds an arm to latch onto whilst Robertson is in top control, Derns armbars are gorgeous.
Additional Notes: I have money on Robertson here, only because I have followed her journey to the belt and it’s always nice to see a contender who went through highs and lows battle for something as great as a UFC title. But money is also on Dern here. My money on Robertson is not an Alt Bet.
Prediction: Dern via Dec (1/3) | Parlay: Dern ML
Main Event
Welterweight Championship
Islam Makhachev (c) (-340) (28-1-0, 16 FWS) v Ian Machado Garry (#5) (+270) (17-1-0, 2 FWS)
Striking: I will give almost every advantage here to Garry, given that he is far longer than Makhachev and he uses his length exceptionally well. It is possible that Makhachev can succeed on the feet if he uses his wrestling threats first to lower the guard of Garry.
Wrestling/Grappling: This should be where Makhachev thrives, but he has to be very selective in which takedown to use, Single leg foot sweeps are where I believe he will find the most success because Garry is otherwise too tall and too well balanced to deal with typical body lock lift takedowns. Garry is also fairly decent on the ground but Makhachev is far too good of a wrestler to fall for anything that Garry may use as a submission unless it’s a knockdown followed by Sub thing.
Additional Notes: I want you to read my full breakdown for this one, I went at length and I feel like I covered more bases there than I could here in my TL;DR format.
Prediction: Makhachev via Sub R4 (1/3) | Parlay: Alt Round Betting - Makhachev R4, 5 or Dec
Parlay: Gore/Luque ITD, Njokuani/Alvarez ITD, Dern Sub/Points, Makhachev R4, 5 or Dec
Moneyline Parlay: Orolbai, Fernando, Ribovics, Ochoa, Dern, Makhachev.
Alt Bets: Luque via Sub R1 or 2 (CR), Njokuani via KO R1 or 2 (CR).
Locks: Abdul-Malik
Dogs: Magny
Be sure to read my Parlay Explained posts for more single bets that I recommend!
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Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!
Posted Aug 12, 2026, 7:20 AM UTC