What are your predictions for 2015?
I want to take the pulse of r/collapse Where do you think the world is headed?
Posted Dec 28, 2014, 2:44 AM UTC
2031
A trillion in Washington bailouts for the losers in America's "tight oil" debacle. That whole thing is going tits up this year, and we're going to pay for it.
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Yep. This article details the "hows." I only know the "what." And the what is: private profits and public risk. A self-respecting populace would have burned down Wall Street and K Street by now and thrown all their whores out of our Capitol and White House. And then they'd hold real elections instead of, damn, what do we even call this shit we have?
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In the spirit of anti-prophecy, because events prophesied on the internet never come true;
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Daesh captures Baghdad and launches one or more terrorist attacks in a European capitol, possibly Rome or Athens. This brings the west into another ME war.
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Low oil prices have unintended consequences in the worlds banking systems and cause numerous defaults and crashes with resulting bailouts that make the great recession of 2008-2009 look tame.
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Poor sales during Christmas season of 2014 and banking system woes leads to many businesses in the US to go under. Government
seeks to prop up businesses if they carryguarantees large loans to prevent spread to banking system, but requires businesses to pay it back with 20% interest. -
Fed pushes for another bank bailout but a republican congress balks and goes for a bail-in, asking banks to grab funds from depositors with less than the minimum $5000.
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The US Federal budget grows to a quadrillion dollars for the first time, 950 trillion of this is classified top secret. Federal Reserve loans the government whatever they can't raise in taxes, so it is not like it matters.
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N.Korea succeeds in hacking the military computers of a major country; leaves "guidance" from the supreme leader.
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Nuclear exchange between Russia and U.S. as Russia sees the US preoccupied and seeks to change the world power equation. All of the US nukes seem to mysteriously land in one of several sinkholes in Siberia.
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Pope Francis says, "Hah, just kidding guys" and initiates the New Inquisition.
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Elon Musk says, "Hah, just kidding guys" and Tesla comes out with a remake of the Trabant that nevertheless manages to get 3 miles per gallon on Super unleaded gasoline.
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Another set of sunspot activities launches a 2x Carrington Event solar flare. Buggy whips and carriages make a comeback all over the western world. The third world carries on like it ever has.
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Two of Google's driverless cars try to avoid each other exact same moment by dodging in the same direction and have their first head-on collision.
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Another set of sunspot activities launches a 2x Carrington Event solar flare. Buggy whips and carriages make a comeback all over the western world. The third world carries on like it ever has.
I don't think it is quite 2 times the size of the Carrington event
otherwise, CONFIRMED
The third world carries on like it ever has
That's why only ca. 700 000 000 people die, u/boredompwndu
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One year is insufficiently long, and predictions are for the birds, anyways.
The only interesting thing to happen recently is the (relatively) cheap oil. While it will be creaming the producers, it could create a short straw fire in the global economy and (somewhat) postpone the reckoning.
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Recession. Beginning of the end.
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Much much much more BLATANT as fuck propagandizing. We really have entered the new propaganda era.
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I disagree. We've been trained via propagandizing for decades, and the techniques were ironed out long ago.
Pork for breakfast? Thanks, Edward Bernays.
Water fluoridation? Propaganda sold it, thanks again Bernays.
Communism is bad and should be feared? Thanks again, Mr. Bernays.
This is all old stuff. If you listen to the average person's conversation, everything that comes out of their mouth is the result of propaganda.
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As mentioned in a recent post, accurate predictions are pretty much pure chance, but I suspect some trends are appearing:
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lower oil prices may continue all through 2015 due to deteriorating global economic conditions.
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the collapse in oil prices may result in economic failure and social upheaval in more marginal oil-producing nations (IE nations whose social spending budget is heavily dependent on oil revenue, and who don't have a large reserve of cash to buffer a sustained period of low income). Venezuela, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Angola, Chad, Yemen, Kazakhstan may be at risk for social disorder (or continuing social disorder). Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States may have enough of a buffer, and a powerful enough infrastructure, police, military, and otherwise, to keep an even keel for an extended period of time, but there may be signs of growing unrest as the more marginal elements of society become cut off from economic aid.
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I suspect that global oil production may actually fall significantly this year, possibly the first actual sign of being past peak oil.
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should low oil prices continue, Canadian bitumen and American shale oil production will fall off. Poor economic conditions are likely to keep oil demand and therefor prices low, however.
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oil majors will likely continue to cut back on capital expenditures, but at a faster pace. Less productive or economic plays will be abandoned or sold off, with accompanying downsizing in the industry.
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I think that there's a good chance that financial trouble in the oil industry may trigger another round of debt defaults and another financial crisis. There may be a resumption of quantitative easing to slow the bleeding.
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industries heavily dependent on cheap oil prices may show signs of a resurgence for a while; airlines, shipping companies, cruise lines, etc. However, these are also heavily dependent on the health of the economy, and if that starts to go, cheap oil may not be enough to keep that resurgence going.
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if a debt/financial crisis is triggered, I'd think that the more marginal industrialized nations will likely once again have severe economic problems as the debt hot potato hits them - Spain, Greece, Italy, Bulgaria, Romania, and perhaps the Baltic States.
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While the super economies (US, Russia, China, Germany, France, the UK, maybe India) are likely to suffer, I doubt that they'll suffer as severely as others. Too much wealth and infrastructure, I think.
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UBS is going to go under and WW3 starts.
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[deleted]
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[deleted]
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QE4
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More like the ongoing QE∞.
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I really don't know why someone downvoted this...
Nations will print away - and price-fix important goods like vodka..
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I don't think we have seen the end of the attacks by the Police on unarmed African-Americans. Someone else will be murdered, which will lead to nation-wide protests and rioting in every major city. But, the rioting will be instigated by paid anarchists who work for the same powers that started the rebellion in Libya and Syria; not by peaceful protestors.
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I reckon 2014 is going to see the economies of Europe and America pick up and probably do quite well, as long as oil stays cheap. American production growth will slow and the rest of the world might go into decline. Another supply crunch within maybe a year or two seems likely, which will knock any growth right on the head.
China's housing bubble finally appears to be slowing so we'll see what happens there too. Along with the emerging market debt bubble it could be interesting.
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As someone of more advanced years than most on Reddit, I predict that 2015 will be just like 2014, and just like 2013. People like to put big predictions out there because we find it fanciful to imagine a significant departure from the norm. While our imaginations run wild with possibilities, reality trudges on with little deviation from the present.
So... More fucking war, and more US bullying and imperialism?
Yes. The military industrial complex is more powerful than ever. Our current President has sold more firearms and ammunition during his Presidency just upon false rumors that he's "after your guns", than any other President alive. The money is flowing into the Military Industrial Complex in record amounts, and will not change in any significant way in 2015.
The "bullying" will continue unabated as the US military's reach continues to grow. With more remote locations and more GSU's, this trend will continue as it has the past several years. This is compounded further by the NSA's continued advancement with better technology and hardware than in prior years. The CIA is also not out of the picture, and will remain as active as they were in 2014 and earlier.
Imperialism is nothing new to America, or Americans. It has existed for decades, and most would correctly argue, centuries. 2015 will not change the status-quo in this regard.
Nor is 2016 likely to be any different...and 2017 and even 2027. ...'minor adjustments' aside
Most likely. I don't see considerable variability in the overall picture.
I expect 2027 (~2030) to be significantly different from 2015. We should see first large deviations from the LTG graphs as the model's assumptions stop being valid.
Then one day, the empire collapses. Another one takes the stage, maybe sooner, maybe later. But it's not true that this represents a steady-state model of human affairs. A better model is catastrophism, where humanity lurches from cataclysm to cataclysm like a drunken idiot. Yes, the powers wax and wane in their ability to inflict misery on one another. You may say that this is the same as it ever was, but I'm gonna tell you, things are going to look different, and not in a good way, to us here on the ground in the heart of a decaying empire.
Also there is the small matter of our rendering the planet uninhabitable, a prospect thought not unlikely by many of our most serious thinkers and observers. That's kind of a change.
And that's mostly true. I didn't suggest that there'd be significant deviation from 2014 or 2013, that's all. One may contend that the "collapse" will happen any day now, or twenty years from now. To be fair, I've heard some people discussing the possibility of collapse way back before 2008, and while there was a burp in 2008, it certainly didn't affect the vast majority of us. We still go about our lives as normal. The malls (at least here in the Pacific Northwest) are all still jam packed full of people out having a great time and spending money. Once again, I see no significant variation with this in 2015.
The environment is a very large animal, and while changes are being made to it, and not in our favor, I once again maintain that 2015 will not be noticeably different from 2014 in regard to the environment. Are we on a downhill slide? In my humble opinion, yes. Does that mean that we'll see significant deviation from 2014? No.
Economies in trouble rarely can afford war, especially if the gain isn't as great as the loss. it's worth remembering that one of the greatest military powers on Earth gave up half its empire when it became unprofitable to fund a huge army.
So, continuing that, what about "just like 2009, and 2008"...? People called 2008. You can't write off everything so easily like that.
2008 wasn't a significant event for average American. Were some effected? Certainly. 2008 didn't matter to the vast majority of us. It didn't affect me at all, or anyone I work with. I doubt it affected you. 2008 got headlines, and some corporations were hit. The housing market was hit, and people who consider their homes to be ATM's were hit.
2015 will not see significant deviation from 2014. I see a lot of people who make it their determined focus to spread as much FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, & Doubt) at every possible opportunity (I'm not suggesting you are here). These people want everyone to think that the sky is perpetually falling, and they had better do everything they possibly can to prepare for the big collapse. I've heard those things before. I've seen people stockpiling, and it's fantastic as a marketing ploy because people buy goods that they will not use, and they buy a lot of it. It's been done before. I guess I'm old and just remember seeing things like this and seeing that nothing came of it. Sure, some people were affected, and it sucked for them. That can be said of absolutely any situation.
I maintain what I said. There'll be no significant variance from 2014 or 2013.
It affected our entire community. 2k people left our small 3.5 k community because of a lack of jobs.
That is certainly true. Certain areas were significantly impacted, while others remained unaffected. It also largely was dependent upon whether or not a single industry was exclusive to the area. I know of places where the timber industry collapsed due to pine beetle infestation. I know of areas where meat pacing plants were closed because extended drought killed off the animals. I know of areas where mines were shut down due to weak ore prices. In these cases, you're absolutely correct. People were directly impacted by the closure of these industries, and I would never make light of their strife.
In most cases, small communities are hemorrhaging people due to lack of work. Those families are displaces to larger population centers where more opportunities exist. My family has experienced this when I was a kid. I got to see it firsthand. I'd never wish it upon anyone, but a to of people learned valuable lessons from it. Don't base a town on a single industry.
While industries rise and fall, there's no significant deviation from the two years prior that I can see. We'll continue to have deep drought through most of the breadbasket states, we'll continue to see wildfires of epic proportions in California, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington. We'll continue to see decimation of forests by the pine beetle. We'll continue to lose jobs to offshoring by corporations.
It sucks, but 2015 will see more of the same.