Previous weeks:
r/NFL have something similar during the offseason.
Back North for week 3: Wales
Pretty simple: 2-3 reasons why they will win the RWC and 2-3 reasons why they won't.
In before any trolls/lolz. Please say how you think their tournament will go if you really cannot envisage a situation where Wales win the RWC
Posted Jun 24, 2015, 5:11 AM UTC · edited
Ways they can win in the final: Liam Williams
Ways they can lose in the final: Liam Williams
I'd still have him any day over Cuthberk
It's a shame Cuthberts form dropped. Back in 2012/2013 he was an absolute monster, people hyped up North massively but Cuthbert WAS a far more reliable player.
He was reliable at getting over the touchline, the stats him justice there 16 tries in 30 games wasnt it?
Even in 2013, he lacked rugby intelligence and is a defensive liability (I recall a two on three, where he fucked it up, look at him flapping). When the final part of the professional era comes down to players creating the slimiest of chances, he doesn't offer anything that Warren ball.
Yes but for all of North's hype, he fumbles the ball alot.
Because they simply can't beat the Wallabies they'll need to defeat England in pool play and that will be difficult to do. They last managed a win against England at Twickenham in 2012 and have lost the last two.
tl;dr they won't get out of their pool.
We beat England in 2013, in Millenium Stadium. Very frustrating that we haven't beaten Australia in so long, and that we lost to England in 6N this year.
You've come so close to us though on quite a few occasions. Come rugby wc anything could happen
Jesus Christ Wales vs Australia is so frustrating every time. We always seem to be ahead until the last 10 minutes then just get tired and let it slip. Same for recent matches with the All Blacks.
Will:
Pressure is off/they have the underdog status as nobody expects them to get out of the group Mostly the same squad since the last RWC, but with lots more experience, having won two 6N. Have recently beat a SH team
Won't:
Gameplan may be a bit too one dimensional
Lack of depth
Group of death
Lots of other teams are playing very well
Will
Won't
Group of death
Poor track record against SH opposition
Somewhat limited tactics could be found out against better teams
Wont:
good chance they wont get out of their group
inability to beat SA, Australia
Gatland ball persists unchanged.
Will:
if they get out of their group, all bets are off
halfpenny stays fit and on the pitch
they tend to finish competitions stronger than they start them (6N anyway) so the longer they stay in the better their chances become
Will: Halfpenny learns how to tackle without using his face as an implement.
Will
Wont
Big question, is Jones coming back if the props stay injured? Warren may need to go cap in hand.
I think he's done no matter what, he's not the player he once was
Will:
Won't:
Uruguay... are a threat? (honestly I don't know)
Not a threat, but the pool is so tight it could come down to points difference. In the last game of the Six Nations, Gareth Davies dropped an intercept as he was in under the posts. Italy then scored. That 14-point turnaround would have seen Wales win the Six Nations. One mistake even in less competitive games can change everything.
Very true. Thanks for explaining.
I tend to agree that they are hugely unlikely to win the RWC. If they manage a win against Eng or Aus, they are still likely to catch SA in the quarters.
Wales can beat people on their day, but circumstances are really against them and they'd have to overcome the odds several times.
That said, Gatland has done a fantastic job at Wales and they might upset someone.
Just like Ireland, in any case where I see things going Wales' (or Ireland's) way, the lack of experience of this competition at its highest level against SH competition will ultimately be their undoing. That is to say, if they manage to get out of the pool of death.
Edit: And unlike some, I can see Wales doing it - while Wales' record against Australia is not great, they can beat them and they can beat England in Twickers, it's Wales' to upset, it's Australia's and England's to lose. I'll be rooting for Wales and Fiji, not because I have anything against England or Australia, but I want to see a good, competitive group.
Will: Top their group combined with a few home games and they have a winnable route to the final.
Wont: Group of Death. Garland's inability to beat the SH teams.
After seeing the Super Furry Animals live last weekend, I must say I've developed more appreciation for the Welsh in general. It was a surreal experience to cheer for Welshmen.
Anyway; Reasons they will.
Leigh Halfpenny
If Liam Williams doesn't brainfart them out of a game
Incredible defensive ability when they want to.
Reasons they won't
Liam Williams brainfarts them out of a game.
Group of death
Warrenball doesn't cut it when the other team can defend even more efficiently than you do.
Liam Williams is injured mate
Won't: No team in red has ever won a World Cup.
Will: Get that away strip going.
Will:
Won't:
Lack of experience? Really? We have more caps in our first XV than any other side in the pool.
I'm trying to figure out what I meant, it's not quite coming back. Maybe lack of experience of big games. They've done great in high intensity games in the Six Nations but their only experience in the WC is a game won against Ireland that wasn't as good as now in the quarter final and fucking up a semi they should've won.
Warburton is not fit to nibble on the bread crumbs under Pocock's table. And Toby Falatau is no world beater. He's no Vermeulen/Reid/Vunipola.
Will: George North is on par with SH outside backs like Folau.
Good as Warburton may be, I wonder if people who say "X is as good as Pocock over the ball" have actually seen that much of Pocock over the ball. He's the Einstein of turnovers.
1282 - Never got over it.
Wales feel like a Sports Car that has been tuned and honed for a race that no longer takes place and the team manager doesnt have the resources to be able to change anything
that and the front row is a shadow of its former self
Won't:
Will:
Ah, ignore Ireland Wales, more an example of why Ireland won't win, we created multiple overlaps but without our leaders(sexton) made stupid decisions ie: knock on under posts with 5 v 2 outside
Will: gat ball
Won't: gat ball/ stupid red card
Will; With their tails up, they are capable of sublime rugby Great defence Won't; Lack of depth in the squad; one or two injuries and they are resorting to players not of international standard. Whilst they are great at their creative best, they will be playing warrenball and most teams have figured it out.
Will:
Won't:
Pocock stifles possession
The Canes contained him pretty well last night. The key with shutting Pocock down is getting speed to the breakdown and crushing him off the maul.
I've also heard that teams will deliberately target him with runners to keep him out of the game.
Won't:
Will:
Do you count London as a home game against Australia?
Uruguay and Fiji at Cardiff. Mind you 'home' isn't that far away from London anyway and I take it they would have more support if that's what you mean.
It's only up the road.
It's also a different country. The Welsh (Scottish and Irish also) really don't like the English to be frank, support at home and support in England will be massively different and the atmosphere is nothing like the same.
Most teams request that Cardiff's roof be open for games just because of the sheer volume created by the fans.
No. Nothing compares to Cardiff.