Pull odds for Golbez and Soul Break Banners
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mQGImEcJEg1IZ...Posted Sep 2, 2015, 1:49 AM UTC
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docs.google.com
How to use: Check how many items you would like from the banner and see the chances of pulling at least one in the corresponding row.
- Please note that these formulas do not include the bonus draw chance additive of a 5 star item when a non-5 star item is drawn on successive banner draws. This means you're chances get slightly better but calculating them gets a bit harder to do, maybe next time.
Prepared this a couple days ago to see what my odds would be at pulling Golbez Axe or at least some decent mage gear. I prepared a similair thread with a couple pull chances before the Lightning event and enjoyed it (but did not get a Blazefire Sabre or Boon) so I decided to get more comprehensive with this one.
I'm going in with at least 150 mythril (130 atm) and will spend every last piece of mythril at a chance for the axe! Will be fun either way - gotta love banner pulls!
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Do you know how much of an increase you get for failing to draw a 5? Is it additive/multiplicative?
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No idea. I hear different values from different sources. It seems that even the values in the JPN version are not confirmed and unknown. What I usually hear is that if you didn't get a 5-star, then the chance of getting any 5-star are increased by 1% (10% -> 11% -> 12%->etc.) which would be nice if it was additive like this. Even so, how it works with concurrent pulls (3-pulls, 11-pulls) is also unknown. Would be nice to know the formulas but at least we get something :)
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Thanks for sharing it with us! I think your dungeon list showing all of the rewards is the most up to date one!
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That is courtesy of AlexRiot here on Reddit. He does some wonderful work and I am simply using a modified version of his as my personal checklist. I think he is on vacation at the moment. Original dungeon spreadsheet URL is in the links :)
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Thanks for the probability table, I'll keep that in mind with my pulling 150+.
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According to this table I have a 100% chance to get "any 5* equipment" after 99 pulls however when doing this on the Lightning banner I got 0 5'* after the first 100(I spent 250 mythril, and $90 on 11 pulls, and $1 on 100 gem pull) pulls so it is inaccurate :V
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As you know every pull (or set of pulls) is its own statistically unique event so of course it is possible to pull 1000 times and still not get a single 5*. But mathematically the odds round up to 100% chance for that many pulls.
Soon we will get the feature where failed pulls increase the 5* rate of future pulls (up till you eventually get a 5* item) so that will finally provide a level of inevitability that is currently absent.
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It's rounded to 2 decimals (so it's likely 99.999% etc). None of these will ever be 100% until the bonus draw chance that will be introduced during the Golbez event. Sorry to hear about your bad draw luck.
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I am the 99.9999%
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I still never got a clear answer on whether this whole chance increase on a 5* increases even within 11pulls (meaning if within the 11 pull increases the chance for a 5* for the next pull or does it treat 11 pull as 11 separate pulls therefore increasing the chance for a 5* even within the 11pull.
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My understanding (although I'm not 100% sure) is that it treats every draw separately. So if your first ten are 3*, your last draw will have better odds. But on the flip side, if you do an 11-pull and don't draw any 5s, then do another pull, your odds are only boosted until you hit a 5, not for all 11 draws.
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So theoretically, wouldn't it be better to just do single draws when you don't have a massive amount of mythril saved up? I'll have about ~100 by the time the increase happens.
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Depends what your goal is. The odds should be exactly the same either way, except getting a freebie extra draw from an 11-pull. The advantage of doing an 11-pull is that extra draw. The only advantage of doing single pulls is you can stop before spending 50 mythril. In most cases, 11-pulls are better because they maximize your expected value for your mythril (with the extra draw) and the relic draw is all about playing the odds.
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Yes that's true, but it makes more sense to do single pulls if the rate increase is more effective here vs. the 11 pull. The point of the pulls is to get 5*, getting an extra draw for a likely 3-4* isn't worth it in my mind vs. constantly increasing the drop rate for a 5*.
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Assuming I'm reading the chart correctly... Kind of scary that even if you spend 1,000 mythril, you're still mathematically under a 90% chance of getting that one item you want, and you have to spend over 300 mythril to even hit a 50% on a specific item. It just goes to show that you should never expect to get a specific item from a relic draw.
Yeah, I would hate to be in that 10% if I were to spend that much. Seems a bit unfair.
Yes, the chart is really useful in showing us how appalling the relic rates are. Guess the best philosophy remains to expect nothing and get pleasantly surprised if you get something.
Yes. To be fair though, this game is extremely liberal with how much premium currency is given out for free compared to most freemium games, so I don't think it is as bad as people make it out to be
Pull, because you need gear. 3* is plently good, especially with synergy. Hope for some 4* stuff. If you get 5*, excellent. But the main point of pulling should always be to build up your armory of RS gear.
That's what I think.