Opinion Savvy South Carolina Republican Poll
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Posted Feb 12, 2016, 5:16 PM UTC
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The media has recently been consumed by the narrative that the evangelical presence in SC will tilt the primary towards Cruz, but I'm not so sure. After all, while Santorum was the evangelicals' emissary in 2012, he fared poorly in SC, where Gingrich dominated the field. While I wouldn't say that Gingrich and Trump are analogs, I think Gingrich was the most Trumpian candidate of that primary in terms of robust demagoguery.
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Not only this, but Cruz has been running a pretty negative and dishonest campaign. Worse yet, the evangelical second choice, Carson, bore the brunt of his fabricated claim in Iowa.
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That's simply not true. Cruz has been one of the least negative candidates in the race. He only attacks if attacked first. Hell, he was the only one to not go after Trump, until Trump lashed out and started the feud between them.
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This is perceptive.
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Sad, I wanted Kasich to ride a momentum wave :(
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Polled data was taken from the 10th and the 11th, so it looks like there was no momentum and Kasich came 2nd in NH purely because of his ground game in NH.
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He was polling at 1% in SC in January, so there is a bit of a bump. But not enough to matter. Also troublesome is his 2nd choice numbers, which are dreary.
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plus the open primary likely helped him as well. I am not sure what percentage of registered republicans actually voted for him.
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9% is momentum. Before the NH primary he was polling at 1 to 2% in the state.
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He probably got most of the Christie vote.
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10% at SC is his momentum. South Carolina might be one of the states most conservatives of the union, and he is polling 2 points behind Bush. Really, I thought he was going to get around 5% of the vote.
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This. Isn't this something like a four-fold increase in his SC support since January? The real question is whether this bump is him picking up all the Fiorina/Christie/Paul support, or if it's coming off of other candidates. We need to have another poll in a few days to see what the real trend is.
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Most Christie/Paul supporters I know are now behind Kasich. Really, he has quite a chance of beating Bush, if he does, its between him and rubio, and he might beat Rubio.
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Why the hell hasn't anyone been polling South Carolina? This poll seems sketch.
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If Kasich beats Rubio or Bush, that is huge for him. If he miraculously beats both, the race for the establishment candidate will change very fast. Some say it's a race for third, but it will be very different when there are only three candidates on the stage. Trump seems to benefit from limited time for retorts, as he's very good at sound bites. Maybe he will surprise me when the field narrows, but I think three candidate debates - if the field narrows in time - will be the death of Trumps run.
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It will be really troublesome for Bush if he can't place better than 4th, as this polling indicates. That said, if he makes a strong showing and scores a solid third and Rubio underperforms, it could begin to position him as "the" establishment candidate.
I like how there's a separate "establishment primary" that everyone takes seriously even though it's pretty much just a fight for third place.
The theory is that Rubio, Bush and Kasich's support combined would make one establishment candidate competitive.
It really is a shaky theory, but entertaining nonetheless.
Well their combined support in this poll is roughly 34% . That's within margin of error of Trump.
Keep in mind that Cruz as 'second place' is a bit of a red herring. If he's not in first place, he's out - there is literally no one else in the running the Republican establishment hates more than Cruz, and they will give Trump the nomination if it comes down to a choice between the two.
If Cruz ever finds himself in first place then the game changes a bit, but as long as Trump (or anyone else) is leading I think it's pretty safe to rule out Cruz entirely.
Ehh... Cruz has a 1st place finish and 3rd place finish in a state that was never going to be friendly to him. I think a strong 2nd place finish here sets him up fairly nicely for Super Tuesday and he remains a pretty significant factor.