[Open discussion] Pre-debate Discussion Megathread

!MAGA

[This is an open discussion, non-supporters are allowed to make top-level comments; automod will remove your comment but I will approve it ASAP]

TIME: Monday September 26, 2016; all debates (including the Vice Presidential debate) will run from 9:00pm to 10:30pm Eastern Time.

PLACE: Hofstra University

MODERATOR: Lester Holt

FORMAT: Two podiums; standard presidential debate criteria required (eg, no direct questions between candidates)

WATCH: Links (alphabetical order) below with direct links to streams:

Bloomberg TV: http://www.bloomberg.com/live/us

DonaldJTrump.com: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJ4CSmOqS5c

Fox News: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubp0CEbqW-U

Hofstra University: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXJoTGj_IKI

Infowars: http://www.infowars.com/show

NBC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=855Am6ovK7s

PBS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuHuzhzb1nc

Telemundo: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRwA1NUcUnwsly35ikGhp0A/live

Washington Post: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6QElWIKfDk

LIVE ANALYSIS: Several outlets are attempting to provide life analysis of each candidate's statements; providing them here so you can fact-check the fact checkers:

NeutralPolitics: https://www.reddit.com/r/NeutralPolitics/comments/54nezg/first_debate_factchecking_thread/

Bloomberg TV: http://www.bloomberg.com/live/us

Wired: https://www.wired.com/2016/09/wireds-live-blog-fact-checks-first-presidential-debate/

Breitbart: http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/26/trumpclintondebate/


#General questions to start the discussion:

  • What will you be looking for, for each candidate?

  • In order to win-over new voters, what do the candidates need to achieve?

  • How do you think this debate will impact key swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Hampshire? What do the candidates need to do to target those key voters?

  • What things are each candidate looking to avoid?

  • What traits are each candidate hoping to come out during this debate?

  • What are the issues you are hoping that comes up during the debate? What issues do you want to see avoided?

Posted Sep 25, 2016, 2:17 AM UTC · edited

1484
cocaine_muslimNimble Navigator•

Am I the only one who thinks this business with Gennifer Flowers seems like a terrible idea? Like it or not, Trump is a well-documented serial adulterer, and I don't see him coming out on top in a referendum on infidelity. Furthermore, it feeds directly into the left's narrative that he's a bully who likes to resort to personal attacks. I thought it was a hilarious idea when he suggested it on Twitter, but I really hope he doesn't try to pursue this any further.

16
WantfreespeechnowNimble Navigator•

It made the media talk about her. Most younger people have probably heard the name Monica Lewinsky but not much else. Now Bill's rape allegations will be out in public again without a direct call out.

6
thesmilingmeatNon-Trump Supporter•

Regardless of your stance on Bill Clinton's rape allegations, Gennifer Flowers was not a part of them. Bill cheated on Hillary with her, either once or over a prolonged period, depending on which party you believe. Hillary was the victim in this situation. Certainly she openly insulted Flowers and ultimately stayed with Bill, but it was Bill and Gennifer who caused that problem.

Which brings it to the bigger point. Are we voting for Hillary or for Bill? Why is Hillary being judged on the actions of her husband? Criticisms of Melania from the left don't justify this, they are just as bad.

If Trump brings this up outside of the confines of Twitter he loses any ground he's made with women. And rightly so, it's a cheap shot and outrageous at this juncture.

11
BornsaltyNimble Navigator•

Why is Hillary being judged on the actions of her husband?

Why was Hillary riding Bill's coat tails during the rallies? If she can use him for her gain then Trump can surely use him for her loss.

7
thesmilingmeatNon-Trump Supporter•

Why was Hillary riding Bill's coat tails during the rallies?

Can you give me some examples? I've done a quick google and can't see anything but i'd like to address the point.

If she can use him for her gain then Trump can surely use him for her loss.

I suppose what I mean is that his actions tell us nothing about her, only hers do. If she is wrong to use his actions as a positive, as you've said she has, then Trump is wrong to use them as a negative. Now Trump has also said that his own infidelities should be fair game in the campaign, which is commendable given his insistence on using Bill's, but that doesn't change my belief that where him or Bill stuck their dicks over the years has no impact on which of the two candidates are best suited to the role of president.

3
HemingwavyNon-Trump Supporter•

If you can't understand the difference between campaigning with your husband and inviting the husband's mistress to a political debate, that's frankly pathetic.

1
bill__doorNon-Trump Supporter•

Because of his economic policies, not his personal life. If you can't see the difference between the two, I'm very worried. One, he's a former, popular Democratic president. If she wasn't married to him, she'd probably still be saying the same things. Two, the Gennifer Flowers thing didn't happen while he was President.

1
A_Little_OlderNimble Navigator•

Hillary was the victim in this situation.

[Oooh boy, Juanita Broaddrick is going to want a word with you.] (http://www.apfn.org/apfn/Juanita.htm)

Hillary was just as bad if not worse to those women as Bill was.

2†
thesmilingmeatNon-Trump Supporter•

And if Donald had invited her to the debate we'd be having a different conversation. He didn't. If you have additional information about what she did to Gennifer Flowers they may counter what I said feel free to share it.

5
AlyxraNon-Trump Supporter•

No he's not, lol. He did sleep around a bit between marriages, but there's no evidence to support infidelity.

-3
thesmilingmeatNon-Trump Supporter•

He had a public affair with Marla Maples while married to Ivana. I'm not steeped in Trump lore so I don't know if there's other confirmed cases but that's public record. Personally that's between him and his then wife, it doesn't have any impact on his suitability to be president, but still... don't throw stones and all that.

10
dietstacheNon-Trump Supporter•

Trump has admitted he had an affair with Maples while married to Ivana...

3
internerd91Non-Trump Supporter•

I'm pretty sure one of the children was born, or at least conceived, out of wedlock.

2
bobop6Nimble Navigator•

IMO, Trump only needs to not do two things and he wins:

  1. Don't call Hillary names. No "Crooked Hillary" etc.

  2. Don't look like a moron or lunatic. Don't bring up (or imply) any thing that is seen as a conspiracy theory. I think the biggest risk is looking uninformed, as Clinton/the moderator will likely ask technical questions, and he's not really great with technicalities.

If he can avoid those two things, no matter how well Clinton explains herself or attacks Trump, Trump wins.

11
SlightlyOTT•

How come Trump can win solely by not being a moron or using childish names? Are expectations of him genuinely that low among the media?

9
bobop6Nimble Navigator•

Yep. The media's been building the narrative he's a crazy racist moron for the past year.

8
BornsaltyNimble Navigator•

And reddit eats it up.

9
Mrman53/pol/lack•

Most Anti-Trumpers expect him to do that (name calls, be a moron). If he proves them wrong it will shake their fundamental argument against him.

7
iguess12Non-Trump Supporter•

Behaving oneself for 90 minutes in no way invalidates their concerns or arguments.

3
BornsaltyNimble Navigator•

It kind of does when most of their attacks on him are because of similar 90 minutes. It works both ways. They judge him just as harshly over a sentence or even word out of context.

9
local-area-manNon-Trump Supporter•

I hate to say it, but that's not even close to the most fundamental argument against him. It's like piss icing on the shit cake though

0
afopsNon-Trump Supporter•

That's why he did the Mexico visit. Expectations seem to have been that he would grope the first lady and make some bigoted comment about mexican food before flying home, so just giving a speech without his foot in his mouth basically have him immediate credit. That's where we are now.

3
Grsz11Non-Trump Supporter•

I think the expectations are that low among his supporters.

1
_AnObviousThrowaway_Nimble Navigator•

In order to win-over new voters, what do the candidates need to achieve?

Both candidates need to break their public stereotype. Trump needs to appear like he isn't a crazy racist, and Clinton needs to not appear as a corrupt liar. Trump has stayed constant and on message for the last month, and won't be talking through a media filter, so I'd give the edge here to him. Plus, shaking an untrustworthy label is extremely difficult, as Ted Cruz can tell you all about.

How do you think this debate will impact key swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Hampshire? What do the candidates need to do to target those key voters?

One advantage to Trump's populism is that he appeals to working class people that otherwise might not vote Republican. I think he needs to focus on fixing the economy, and driving home the message that Clinton won't change anything.

What things are each candidate looking to avoid?

Trump can absolutely not let Clinton bait him into saying something dumb. She is going to try it, 100%. If he can avoid that, he should be fine.

What are the issues you are hoping that comes up during the debate? What issues do you want to see avoided?

Space exploration is an interest of mine that I haven't seen much of from either candidate. Other than that, the economy and immigration are two things I'd like to see talk about.

5
[deleted]•

+1 to space exploration, I really hope it comes up as a question asked by the audience in the town hall 2nd debate. All major candidates either ignore it, or just give some vague response.

2
oldie101Nimble Navigator•

It's finally here! I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve! For you football fans, in the words of Bart Scott "Can't Wait".

What will you be looking for, for each candidate?

I am going to see if Trump can change the narrative about Trump. He has to convince the nation that the media narrative of him being a bloviating racist is just untrue. He needs to make his message a unifying one that is clear, concise & targeted and he needs to explain why Hillary will be the one to continue down the dis-unification path Obama has take us on. He needs to make the case for why America isn't great right now, but what will be more important is to also make the case for why he is the one to make it great. Attacking politicians, polarization, international instability, economic stagnation, unfiltered immigration, crummy healthcare, veteran's abuses all should be on his topic train. As well as problems facing specific demographics such as inner cities, legal immigrants, working moms, young college grads & blue collar workers, explaining specifically how his policies benefit each of these groups, and why it's imperative that they start voting in their interest, instead of the interest of their political representatives who disappear year after year post election day.

Hillary needs to convince America that she is knowledgeable, that she has good judgement & that she is trustworthy. I believe she will be able to do the first thing, I have no way of rationalizing how she can prove the other two things. Her previous decisions can't be erased and her previous lies won't be forgotten. Maybe a Clinton supporter can better explain how she will be able to achieve this.

In order to win-over new voters, what do the candidates need to achieve?

Trump needs to convince America why they have been misled to believe that the status quo is good enough.

Hillary needs to convince voters that her more moderate approach is more effective at getting the changes done that Bernie supporters wanted.

How do you think this debate will impact key swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Hampshire?

I'm really interested in seeing how this will affect Pennsylvania. With so many blue collar Democrats in the state, I'm curious to see if Trump can solidify his case for why they need to stop voting for the people looking to export their jobs out of the country. If he can succeed in doing that, I see potentially beneficial swings in his favor. If Trump can't stay away from being denigrating, these states and all others will turn on him like they did post the Curiel comments.

What things are each candidate looking to avoid?

Trump has to avoid proving Hillary is correct when she says he is "temperamentally unfit".

Hillary needs to avoid trying to downplay her controversies and writing them off as being insignificant. "What difference does it make" isn't going to sit well with the American public.

What traits are each candidate hoping to come out during this debate?

Trump needs to show the American public that he is a strong, common sense leader who America needs to represent it and its interests on the world stage. He needs to prove to Americans that a vote for him is a vote for the benefit of our country and our countries people.

Hillary needs to show American's that she is just as strong of a leader who is going to work through methodical politicizing of policies in order to benefit America. I don't know how she can achieve this given past decision making, maybe a Clinton supporter can explain.

What are the issues you are hoping that comes up during the debate?

There is a litany of issues that I want to see discussed:

  • What is the cause of ISIS? What are the threats to America/West surrounding ISIS? What is the most effective way to combat ISIS?

  • What are the consequences of illegal immigration? Who does it hurt? Who does it benefit?

  • Why has the so-called "recovered" economy produced stagnant wages for millions? Why are college grads unable to find work that will help pay of their debt? Why are people's disposable incomes virtually non-existent? Why is our debt continuing to grow? Why are our trade deficits always with us in the red and our trade partners in the black?

  • Why after 8 years of a historic presidency our nation is more divided than before? What is the best way to unify America?

  • Why does corruption continue to exist in public life? An evaluation of our electoral process & whom benefits from it existing as-is, and if either is willing to change it.

  • The drug war and our plan regarding it, and marijuana legalization. I'm hoping Trumps plan is to propose a policy during the debate for federal legalization of marijuana, which will cut into the Bernie supporter/Gary Johnson supporter/ Jill Stein supporter pool.

What issues do you want to see avoided?

I'm not sure I want any issue avoided but given time constraints I will say these issues are less important.

  • Abortion rights, gay marriage, transgendered bathrooms (basically social issues).

  • Trump University, Trump Foundation, Clinton Foundation, Clinton Emails etc. I don't want this to be a debate about "defend your past", both candidates did enough of that in the primaries. I want this to be a debate about tell me about the present, tell me about why we are where we are, and tell me what your plan is for the future. Why is your plan better than your opponents plan, and why should we believe it can/will get passed in Washington?

5
material_methodsOPNon-Trump Supporter•

Great response and I thought you were extremely fair in your analysis of both candidates in what they need to do to excel tonight

!MAGA

3
BotMAGAMODNimble Navigator•

Confirmed: 1 MAGA awarded to u/oldie101. ^[History] Thank you for Making America Great Again.

^[The MAGA System Explained] [.](HTTP://DB3PARAMSSTART { "comment": "This is hidden text for DB3 to parse. Please contact the author of DB3 if you see this", "issues": {} } DB3PARAMSEND)

2
Helicase21I want to be convinced•

I wonder whether the no-applause rules will mess with Trump at all. He seems like the kind of guy who can really feed off the energy of a crowd, so the silence might unnerve him a bit.

As for issues I want to see come up during the debate, I want to see both candidates respond to a somewhat out-of-left-field question. For example, "Is the way we currently elect the President fair or unfair? why or why not?" It's something that neither of them have likely prepped at all, so it's a good judge of how they handle surprise.

4
TerranosoNon-Trump Supporter•

What are the issues you are hoping that comes up during the debate? What issues do you want to see avoided?

As is always the case, I wish to see a lot on climate change. I want to hear Clinton's detail her plans for expanding on Obama's executive actions. I also want to see Truml call it a Chinese Conspiracy, if only to see how Lester Holt tries to deal with it.

3
VulpineShineNimble Navigator•

So you're going to vote for the dishonest politician who tells you what you want to hear, instead of the honest politician who tells you what he actually believes, even though both administrations will ultimately implement the exact same policy. Crooked Hillary isn't going to upset Monsanto.

1†
-OMGZOMBIES-Non-Trump Supporter•

I'll vote for the politician that consults experts in fields they have no knowledge of and defers to them in policy decisions rather than the politician who spouts conspiracy theories like facts and doesn't believe basic science or listen to experts more informed than they are.

Honesty is great, but if you're an honest idiot you are not qualified to be the president.

1
mulduvar2Nimble Navigator•

What will you be looking for, for each candidate?

For Trump I'll be looking to see if he can convince me on his stances on the issues. According to isidewith.com I only side with him on 50% of the issues, but I've noticed on things like gay marriage he wants to leave the issue up to the states. While I'm in support of equal marriage rights, I think his position on it is perfect, even if he himself wouldn't support it.

For Hillary I'm going to keep an eye on the truthiness of her statements. I align ideologically a little bit more with her but her history leaves me to distrust and dislike her a lot.

In order to win-over new voters, what do the candidates need to achieve?

What things are each candidate looking to avoid?

Trump needs to seem not sexist, racist, xenophobic, deplorable, etc. The more Presidential he can be seen as the better. If he reacts poorly to anything then it's going to be an uphill battle. If he is calm, respectful, genuine, and nails the topics then he has a lot going for him.

Hillary's best chance is getting Trump to do something I said he shouldn't do. She also needs to not have any apparent health episodes during the debates, this would give a lot of credence to the "alt right conspiracy theories"

What are the issues you are hoping that comes up during the debate?

I want to see what Trump has to say about transgender rights. It's clear he wants to keep the LGBTQ community safe from harm as much as any American, but I'm afraid he's likely to push us away somehow.

3
KingUnderThePussyNon-Trump Supporter•

Dude what tranny rights are you worried about?

-1
mulduvar2Nimble Navigator•

For starters there was the bathroom bill which would require law abiding transgender people to out themselves if ever they used public restrooms.

I would hope he would at least take the same stance as his stance on marriage rights stating it's one of those things that should be decided on by the state.

3
VulpineShineNimble Navigator•
3
mulduvar2Nimble Navigator•

I've not seen this. This is fantastic to know about.

3
-OMGZOMBIES-Non-Trump Supporter•

Do you really think a states' rights stance is strong enough on the issue of gay marriage and LBGTQ rights? Why should a couple in California be able to get married but not a couple in Oklahoma? The states' rights argument is just such a step backwards I find it hard to believe someone struggling for human rights as a LBGTQ person or supporter could support it.

1
mulduvar2Nimble Navigator•

To me it means that he as a president won't act on any legislation that seeks to restrict the rights of LGBTQ individuals. Any states that seek to do so will likely find themselves in the supreme court and it can get dealt with there.

1
KingUnderThePussyNon-Trump Supporter•

Good. If they are a man they need to go to the men's bathroom. That's not a rights issue.

0†
mulduvar2Nimble Navigator•

Thanks for your opinion on the matter.

2
material_methodsOPNon-Trump Supporter•

I find this conversation about whether or not the debate moderators should be doing 'fact-checking' fascinating, considering both sides are currently saying that the other one is perpetually lying.

If I'm Trump's political strategist, the best thing I can think of in terms of media image is to see Clinton called out and raked over the coals with a full source quote for a lie that she said; I wouldn't expect my candidate to have the exact wording available or be able to recite the source from memory. By letting my candidate do the fact checking, now Trump has the possibility of not remembering the exact source right or miss-quoting, and then that is its own problem. If Clinton is caught lying, I want Trump there acting calm and cool, not getting heated, and after the moderator points out the lie from Clinton he just kind of puts his hands up and says "hey what can you do she does it all the time". Visa versa if I'm Clinton's political strategist.

Is it the sources that are controversial? Is it when to step in that's controversial? Can Clinton or Trump just not agree on reality anymore so they don't want that to even be in question? I find it very frustrating because I want the debates to be as well sourced and detailed as possible; this shit is important.

3
VulpineShineNimble Navigator•

It's because the fact checker would be in the tank for Clinton, and therefore none of her lies would be called out, and Trump's misleading-but-true statements would be spun as complete fabrications.

http://imgur.com/gallery/ezyRi

0
bill__doorNon-Trump Supporter•

Dude, I don't know about bias in politifact in terms of what they decide to fact check, but that graphic you linked seems like nonsense to me. What do you think is the most telling comparison?

1
VulpineShineNimble Navigator•

Crooked: "since we last debated, nearly 3000 people have been killed by guns."

Politifact: "no such data exists. She made up a number out of whole cloth. Half true."

1
bill__doorNon-Trump Supporter•

No, what politifact said was: "Clinton used very specific language even though she’s actually extrapolating from old data. Overall, we rate her claim Half True." http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/nov/17/hillary-clinton/hillary-clinton-3000-killed-guns-between-nevada-an/

Tl;dr: The claim itself was probably sound, she divided the most recent annual gun death statistics by 12 to guess at how many had died last month. That's reasonable, but also disingenuously suggests that she has a specific number for the last month, which she doesn't. Half true seems like a fair assessment.

As for Trump's statements, you have to realize Politifact is used to parsing the careful, deliberately crafted and focus-group tested statements of career politicians. They're simply not calibrated on a Trump appropriate scale where he exaggerates and embellishes everything.

0
bill__doorNon-Trump Supporter•

Curious if anyone thinks the debates will move the needle much? Historically, debates have had around a 4-6% effect on the polls, when they've had an effect (Ray Gun being a notable exception). Anyone have any reason to think this will be more like the former than the latter, for either candidate?

2
material_methodsOPNon-Trump Supporter•

As pointed out in the 538 post yesterday by Silver (source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-case-for-and-against-democratic-panic/ ) state polls in Ohio (Clinton down 5%) with nation-wide polls (Clinton up ~2-3%), so I think it's going to be hard to pin-point exactly the impact of the debates. The polls are just in a weird spot right now statistically and it's hard to see much in them; they haven't stabilized after the convention and before the debate, which is what happens traditionally

In my personal opinion, I don't think the debates are going to have much of an impact because each side has already had a scorched-Earth outlook on the other. If Trump or Clinton say something that the other thinks is outrageous, how do they separate that comment from the portrait each has painted for the other? Somehow this comment is even more beyond the pale than the past comments?

1
bill__doorNon-Trump Supporter•

I dunno, if Trump admitted he wasn't going to build a wall I could see his people turning on him. Either one could bleed some support to the third parties.

1
sidewalkillUnsure (Trump Disfavored)•

What's Ray Gun?

1
bill__doorNon-Trump Supporter•

Reagan, sorry.

1
Blistor94Undecided•

Can't fkn wait.

2
Helicase21I want to be convinced•

Question to supporters, putting it here instead of a separate thread: do you think Holt is a good choice to moderate the debate? Who would you have preferred to see?

2
oldie101Nimble Navigator•

I don't know enough about him to say definitively yes or no. I do know that NBC networks favor the Democratic party with their coverage. MSNBC as we all know is the source for pro-Dem policy even more so than the Clinton News Network. Why they seem to be a bit better this election cycle is because many of their anchors were in it for Bernie, so they don't give Clinton all the breaks, but with it just being Trump v. Clinton, it's been all about how Trump is Hitler since the general started.

People like Rachel Maddow, Chris Hayes, Lawerence O'Donnel & Joy Reid are just some of the worst people I've ever seen. It's amazing when the conclusion you reach is that Chris Mathews is the most impartial anchor on MSNBC and nobody would ever call Mathews impartial.

I'm hoping that Holt's parent company and their political affiliation doesn't get in the way of what is meant to be impartial moderation. If the "fact-checking" proposals go through, I think we are opening a slippery slope for influence the moderator can have on the debate and would side against it, and leave the moderator to moderate and for the people to make up their minds about what is true and what isn't.

0
Helicase21I want to be convinced•

I think it's worth noting that Holt is a registered Republican, and I would hope he and his company are well-aware of the heightened likelihood of bias allegations.

With that said, my personal choice to moderate all the debates would be John Donvan, who moderates the Intelligence Squared Oxford-style debates, and is incredible at keeping people on-topic.

3
oldie101Nimble Navigator•

I think it's worth noting that Holt is a registered Republican

I've seen this speculated without proof, is there any to suggest this is true?

John Donvan,

I've seen his work, he'd be an interesting choice, but not sure if he is unbiased, or wouldn't be. I think it'd be interesting to have a representative from outside of the country doing the moderation, possibly some BBC folk.

1
Helicase21I want to be convinced•

here is a source on Holts registration.

As for Donvan, I want a moderator who will hold both candidates feet to the fire, and I think Donvan might be the best bet for that.

3
GMU_TheHulkNon-Trump Supporter•

These debates will finally settled where my vote goes. I am vehemently against both hillary and donald. The separation of parties has added to my inability to choose a candidate, but neither of them are close enough to the middle to get my vote as of now.

The biggest thing I'm looking for is a direct compare and contrast of policies between the candidates. The second thing I'm looking for will be responses to issues that the opposing parties have for each candidate (specifically immigration and dealing with corporate corruption [like with the Wells Fargo scandal, and possibly with some of his personal financial faux pas like trump university and using charity funds for law suits] for Trump; Why Cheryl Mills was given immunity from the email scandal and where specifically all the funding for her proposed social programs are actually coming from beyond just "tax the rich" for Hillary).

1
oisin1001Non-Trump Supporter•

This is going to be a really important moment in the cycle. Clinton didn't seem great vs Sanders back in the Democratic debates, and Trump will have to stick to the actual issues this time around. I could honestly see this going both ways. I've seen people online say that the topics favour Trump more this time.

1
material_methodsOPMODNon-Trump Supporter•
1
rolph-peterstenchNon-Trump Supporter•

Why is he arguing for stop and frisk so much? That is an entirely non conservative view. It is a clear breach of our 4th Amendment right.

1