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r/buccos•
Definitely_Ambiguous

Win-Loss Predictions?

How do we think the season will shake out?

As a point of reference, Fangraphs projects us to go 75-87: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

More specifically, they project us to have a -54 run differential, with an average of 4.33 runs scored and 4.66 runs against per game.

I'd say that's a fair prediction, but I can very much imagine us closer to .500 if our young guys step up a little more than the projections suggest.

Posted Mar 21, 2018, 6:18 PM UTC

1749
mbhammer•

My gut says 162-0 but that's a tad unrealistic, so I'll say 160-2

13
stonecoldsaidwhat•

162-0 is crazy. I think you'll be close at 160-2 though.

7
el_capitan_obvio•

We found the realist, folks.

4
yinzyang•

I'm not really as low on this team as some people. I'd say we can definitely be around .500 and maybe even chase a Wild Card spot. Obviously this is counting on better years from Polanco, Cervelli and Marte. I think this, along with Dickerson, Musgrove and Moran who I hope can be quality additions and hopefully some improvement from the young guys can make us a decent baseball team. A lot of ifs and hopes and maybe I'm just getting my hopes up as Opening Day approaches but I think we could be around 82-85.

12
_Major_Monogram_•

82-85? Only 162 games in a season, bud.

/s

1
HesitantSlowbroSchuge Knight•

76-86 feels right

9
stonecoldsaidwhat•

I think the rotation is too weak to be near 82 wins. Bell looks like a stud. Polanco it's hitting like we'd hope he did. I'll say 74 wins

8
wastelands11•

Pens 3-peat and pirates finish with 87 wins. Feels right

8
ninjaburial47we got this•

I got a bet going on the 3-peat

1
wastelands11•

Deets

2
ninjaburial47we got this•

Roommate is an islanders fan and hating so I threw down $20 they would 3-peat. I later got drunk and raised it to $100

2
Cheese_ChesterPope of Moroffism•

Worst possible: 68-94

Best possible: 88-74

Most likely: 78-84

Average. But I think if some things go right this team can be good.

8
borski88•

70-92, but I'd gladly be wrong.

7
66551xz•

85-77. little bias, but that’s why we’re here.

4
letthebeatmmmmdrop•

64 wins....the cards and the cubs are still who they are...and the brewers are the who the pirates should be.

4†
Definitely_AmbiguousOP•

It'd be genuinely surprising if we fall all the way to 64 wins. In 2017, 64 would be tied for worst in all of baseball.

64 is a full 11 wins fewer than Fangraphs' projection. Of course injuries can hit any team, but our overall lineup and rotation is average enough to keep us out of basement of entire MLB.

5
letthebeatmmmmdrop•

ok, so 75 wins is what they had last year....there is no way this year's team is as good as last year's team.

also taking into account that 3 other teams in the nl central improved...and the reds are still the reds...and the pirates did not improve either overall.

there is no way that the pirates sniff 75 wins, even if the whole team stays healthy.

you cannot get better by doing nothing when everyone around you improves.

also: the website which must not be named has the reds at 71 wins. there is not 71 wins in that team

1†
Definitely_AmbiguousOP•

there is no way this year's team is as good as last year's team

I think you're incorrect here. We lost Cutch and Cole, but they weren't actually that valuable in 2017. Dickerson and Marte for the whole year likely replace the value lost. Every other position is more or less the same, but we get a full season of Rivero and potential improvement from Taillon and co.

also taking into account that 3 other teams in the nl central improved...and the reds are still the reds...and the pirates did not improve either overall.

Ya that's fair. Cubs are going to be very good, Cards will be better, Brewers solid. I don't agree with you on the Reds though, they don't have a good roster.

11
letthebeatmmmmdrop•

dickerson is 9/10ths cutch....i love dickerson...imagine what an outfield of dickerson, cutch, and (insert flavor of the week here) would be in the outfield.

marte was busted with PED's last year....we have no idea how long he was taking it, so this year should be a "clean" year from him, unless he gets busted again...we shall see.

we have not replaced cole...and that is a HUGE hole...i know some fans were down on him due to his attitude...but can you blame anyone for being sour on that roster?

as for rivero...he is a closer....can't find much value if you don't have games to close....and he has looked shakey...so we will see.

as for the reds...i meant they are a garbage team too...so the reds are the reds, not doing anything to improve.

2
nafedaykin•

Cutch was our most valuable hitter and Cole was our most valuable pitcher.

Cutch was responsible for over 1/3 of the total team WAR for position players. Cole was responsible for almost 1/4 of the total team WAR for pitchers.

2
yinzwe•

75

4
montani•

90 losses.

4
jmb-412•

I'm not extremely low on the team, but I will be surprised and happy if they win more than 77.

3
dipset97Colin Moran Fan Account•

somewhere between 74-78 wins. I think they'll be somewhat in the wild card hunt until July, then start tailing off.

3
apaq11irates•

92-70. Shock the world!

3
dwn009•

Lose 100! We’ve done it before and god damnit we can do it again.

3
WhoaItsAFactorial•

100!

100! = 9.332621544394418e+157

6
TheRealO-H-I-O•

73-89

3
ubiquitous_apathy•

75 wins. If Marte and Bell come to play, then maybe 80. If every single if ends up having a ++ year, we'll sniff 90, but that's incredibly unlikely and a very hard ceiling.

2
dannotheiceman•

If the Pirates are some how able to get a good starting pitcher we MIGHT be able to get to 80+ wins. It seems like our issue is pitching so far.

2
DinosaurShotgunHot Coffee•

79-83 is my guess

2
el_capitan_obvio•

69-93.

Our pitching terrifies me.

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notamug6•

I hope you’re speaking of the rotation and not the bullpen.

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el_capitan_obvio•

Of course. But the bullpen is almost irrelevant if the starters cough up a bunch of runs and the offense doesn’t put up any - both of which are highly probably.

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notamug6•

You don’t give the lineup any credit. Harrison-Marte-Polanco-Bell-Dickerson-Moran-Cervell-Mercer could be a very dangerous lineup when everyone is healthy. You’re lowest guy will be Mercer who had great success with 2 outs/RISP, then Cervelli who’s generally very consistent at the plate, and Moran who has a great bat but little experience.

The only real question marks are if Dickerson can perform like the first half last year, and if Polanco can stay healthy.

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