CMV: The Browns Are Still Going to Suck
It is my contention that the Browns, even after having two of the first four picks in the NFL draft, are still going to suck.
The Browns have proven, year after year, that they are basically incompetent when it comes to fielding a quality NFL team. Even with quality prospects, they can’t even put on a decent showing. I see no reason why this year is any different.
Within the next five years, these two picks will either be traded away for peanuts or out of the NFL entirely. And the Browns will not have made the playoffs once in that time frame.
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Posted Apr 27, 2018, 1:10 AM UTC
(Context - I'm a Bills fan. It's relevant in a bit)
It's not fair to say that the Browns have been consistently terrible during their playoff drought. In 2007, Derek Anderson lead the team to a 10-6 record. They missed the playoffs due to tiebreakers with the division leading Steelers and Titans for the wild card spot. Then they went 7-9 in 2014 - sounds bad but consider they started the season 7-4 before things went to pot and they started Johnny Football. So the team put together decent seasons in recent memory.
The Browns were 0-16 last season. What were they bad at? _Turnovers_. The Browns were a whopping -28 in net turnover differential. And this is pretty bad - after all, turnovers highly correlate with winning games Source. So who's their QB now? Tyrod Taylor - not a perfect QB but a QB who does not turn the ball over. In three seasons with the Bills, he's only thrown 16 picks. Last season, he only threw 4 (and one of them was just bad luck on a bounce). Additionally, Tyrod is now throwing to r/fantasyfootball dreamboat Josh Gordon and Jarvis Landry, king of the 5 yard slant which happens to be Tyrod's favorite throw. Personally I would have liked to see the Browns take Barkley so they could have a balanced attack, but the point is they made a QB selection that addressed their greatest problem.
What were the browns good at? Run Defense - they ranked #7 in the NFL. That hasn't changed this off season. And they were middle of the road in pass defense - a thing that they'll get better at now that they really upgraded at corner. I was skeptical on how much a team can benefit from a good corner, but Buffalo's defense improved so much with Tre'davious White and Cleveland can do the same.
Ultimately, there's no real way to change ones view until the season actually happens - but I'll put it down now and say that the Browns finish with at least 6 wins, including one over a strong opponent (Pittsburgh or Baltimore).
One last thing - Hugh Jackson stinks, but this is his last year. All that talent will make this a coveted job opening next year.
Are the Browns still pinning hopes on Josh Gordon? The mans been kicked out of the league for substance issues how many times now? That’s hardly convincing.
In seriousness, I appreciate your analysis, and maybe 6 wins is within the realm of possibility. But as stated in my OP, “suck” for the purpose of this argument is making the playoffs in the next 5 years. I might agree with your assessment, but I think 6 is a ceiling on that analysis. Especially considering the Browns have a top 5 toughest schedule this year.
And next year, Tyrod is gone, and they’ll be starting all over again with yet another QB most likely. (And knowing them, they traded away a bunch of their draft class this year for picks even further in the future)
Gordon's days of shots before games are over. I'd say he stays and contributes at a decent, if not 2013 level. Also Landry is legit. Their run game is middling, but will get better with Taylor and an improved passing game to keep defenses from stacking the box. And hey, if Taylor does well and they want to sit Mayfield another year, they could probably renew TT on a contract. It would make sense to keep him as a backup anyway.
What makes you think they'd start over next year at QB? I don't think Mayfield plays at all this coming season - he'll sit behind Tyrod. I'd also be shocked if they traded away the CB they took at 4 unless it's another Barkeveous Mingo.
One other point I'll add - The Browns are in a division with the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals. They are also in a conference that is generally thought to be the weaker of the two. Consider that Roethlisburger retires with no current heir in the near future and Bell declines. Then add Flacco retiring (Jackson is an unknown), and the fact that the Bengals just aren't that awesome. Now here comes the Browns next season - with Mayfield having a year's experience on the bench, two talented receiving targets, and two defensive stars to boost an an average D into the upper third.
I'd contend that this is a playoff contender if
So basically, I'd say that this argument boils down to the above two points. I don't think either of us have a way of proving which of those will come true right now. So I'll leave the thread on that note. If I was a Browns fan, this is cause for optimism.
The browns plan, according to the media, is to have their 2018 1-1 pick, Baker Mayfield sit for a year behind Taylor. That is unless he is so good, that he becomes the starter. Examples of good QBs who sat a year or more, then became starters are: Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Garapolo(maybe, hasn't played a full season), Jared Goff, and Kirk Cousins. Semms the new trend is to have QBs sit behind a veteran for a year, then take over. So, it won't be starting over. The Browns learned the hard way what happens when you rush a rookie QB into action who needs more development time. They also held onto both first round picks. Denzel Ward was a top CB in this draft class, a big hole they had on defense.
The cheap rookie wage scale and ability to lock down a new guy for five years (once again, on the cheap) makes it much easier for teams to draft and sit a guy. For all the problems with the rookie wage scale, this is a major benefit in my mind.
Agreed.