52.6% of teams who win opening coin toss, win the game
foxsports.com/nfl/story/52-percent-of-nfl-tea...Posted Jan 23, 2019, 2:15 AM UTC
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foxsports.com
Well clearly the system is broken and we need to overhaul everything! But only when the Pats win the Super Bowl after winning the opening coin toss.
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We’re going to need at least 50 different individual post proposals in the next week to make a decision.
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need at least 50
sweet summer child
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Teams should send out one of their healthy scratches and have them fight to the death. Winner gets the ball to start OT
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Absolutely, 53rd man on team is always Gregor Clegane or some swifty guy like Oberyn Martell.
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Haven’t seen this stat before
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they should do the XFL version of the jump ball the NBA does
much more fun
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That ended a career in the first game.
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Ok
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52.6% of the time it works all the time.
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"And while the Saints are 7-3 and lead the NFC South despite
coming up short every single time on what should be a 50-50
proposition, coin-toss statistics – yes, they do exist – show that
the NFL team that won the pregame flip wound up winning 52.1
percent of the time through Week 10 this season, according to STATS
LLC.
That’s about the same as the 52.6 percent that STATS shows for
coin-toss ”victories” matching up with game victories since the
start of the 2008 season, when the NFL changed the rules to allow
the team that wins the toss to defer its choice until the second
half."
Yo so did any read the fucking article?
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I did. Since they changed the coin toss rules in 2008, the winning team wins 52.6% of the time. It’d make sense to use the number with a larger sample size.
Maybe you should try common sense sometime.
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Who cares about pregame coin-toss stats? That's around 50% and it's to be expected because there's 4 quarters of game after that. We should only care about the overtime winning % (coin toss victory vs game victory) because that's when it's sudden death
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I will reference my advice to use common sense again. If the pregame toss is around 50%, then the overtime one is around 50% too since it only differs by .1%. Who cares right?
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Defense is half the game, if yours isn’t good enough to stop a team on one drive, you deserve to lose
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This is about the opening coin flip. Not the overtime flip
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What does that have to do with my post?
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It’s the new schtick that people are throwing at the wall to see if it will stick. It’s an easy platitude that rolls off the tongue without any analysis.
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I don't like the overtime rules either but you have 60 minutes to put the other team away.
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But teams already start at a disadvantage if they lose the opening coin toss. They didn’t have 60 minutes before that.
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They should drill coin tosses more in practice, then.
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No.
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Is OT supposed to be a clean slate for both teams? Or is it supposed to punish the team who didn’t “put the other guys away?”
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You have 60 minutes to win. Try it sometime.
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As long as the Pats get 64 minutes and 52 seconds to win...amirite...?
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[deleted]
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It would also be 52.6 unless you are talking about winning the game
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Swing and a miss.
Try again.
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Not only did you get this backwards, this isn’t the case because there are ties in 6% of overtime games.
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I actually think this is false because you didn't factor in ties.
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Actually, no. 7+% of the games end in a tie.
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So, it’s like a coin flip
They counted every coin toss going back to start of the 2008 season. 11 seasons, 216 regular season games plus 11 postseason games per season, that's 2,497 total games if my math is right. If it's like a coin flip, the number of teams that won both the coin toss and the game, 2,497*52.6% = 1,313.4 won't be significantly different from 2,497*50% = 1,248.5.
The binomial distribution's standard deviation assuming a null hypothesis of 50% probability (we're ignoring ties) is sqrt(n*p(1-p)) = sqrt(2,497*.5(1-.5)) = ~24.98
(1313.4-1248.5)/24.98 = 2.6 standard deviations above the expected mean.
If it were like a coin flip, the chances of getting a 52.6% over 11 years would be less than 5%, which is a customary barrier for statistical significance. So it's a good bet that it's actually not like a coin flip. Teams that win the coin toss have a small but noticeable advantage over teams that lose it.
Somebody check my math.
But there are three outcomes. So loser of the toss loses the game more often than it seems from this number.
There’s been 9 ties this millennium. Someone else can do what percent of games that represents but safe to say it’s a pretty insignificant amount