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r/changemyview•
Slenderpman

CMV: Trump's wall idea resonated with the American people because of Game of Thrones. [Mild Spoilers]

SpoilerDeltas(s) from OP

Hi CMV,

This is stemming from a joke my friend made while we were watching season 4, but after I was done laughing I started to actually think this is too possible to ignore. Basically my view rests around the idea that the popularity of Game of Thrones put the idea of a border wall into the heads of the American public. The timing is too perfect, as seasons 4 and 5 are, in my view, the seasons when Game of Thrones got huge. There's also some plot stuff that makes sense too.

Here are the specifics -

Timing: By season 4, viewership had increased to nearly 20 million, a sizable fraction of US voters. Season 5 had even more. These seasons were released in 2014 and 2015 respectively. Trump's political presence really took off around 2012 with the birther nonsense. This article identifies summer 2014, right around the end of season 4, as the time when Trump's consultants came up with the idea of the wall. It also says the first time Trump suggested it at a rally was in January 2015, just months before season 5. He announced his candidacy in June 2015, two days after the season 5 finale.

Something about this timing seems too perfect. I know you could just say that Thrones just happens to be on around the time candidates announced they were running, but the inception of the wall idea coincides to neatly with the show, especially in the plot that I'm about to explain.

Plot: Season 4 had a lot of attention on the wall and Jon Snow. Episode 9 had the famous "The Watchers on the Wall" episode that is entirely comprised of the battle between the noble and undermanned Nights Watch and the savage wildlings trying to breach the boarder... yeah. I believe it's no coincidence that Trump's aids came up with this idea during this time, because even if they don't watch GoT themselves, they definitely would have seen stuff about the wall on social media.

Also, at the end of season 5, when the Nights Watch and wildlings return from Hardhome, Jon is faced with backlash* for bringing the wildlings across the border wall. Trump announced his presidency two days after this season with the idea of breached borders fresh on America's mind.

I don't want to sound like I think the creators of Game of Thrones subliminally suggested to America that the wall is a good idea, I just think the idea of the wall was present in the American political consciousness because of the popularity of Game of Thrones. Even though illegal immigration numbers are falling, the thought of wildlings breaching the border made it more of a sensitive issue.

Someone please tell me this isn't true.

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Posted Feb 10, 2019, 10:08 PM UTC

036
phenixcitywon2ƥ

It isn't true.

For the entirety of human history, walls - physical barriers - have been used to divide in groups from out groups.

the US border wall with Mexico has pre-dated game of thrones, both as a practical reality (in certain areas) and as an idea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secure_Fence_Act_of_2006

9
gremy043ƥ

A song of Ice and fire was first released in '96, pre-dating that by ten years. Bush was one of the book readers.

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phenixcitywon2ƥ

the comment analyzes TV viewership...

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gremy043ƥ

Sure, but the OP is about trumps wall, which is much bigger and more hyped than Bush's '06 fence. Which is explained by the TV viewership being bigger and more hyped than book readership. It all fits.

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SlenderpmanOP44ƥ

Thank you! That's exactly what I'm trying to say.

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SlenderpmanOP44ƥ

I mean you can see the difference in the name "Secure Fence Act". Trump didn't run promising a fence, he ran promising a wall.

On the history argument, no shit. I'm not debating the history of walls, I'm drawing a connection in time between Trump winning on the promise of a huge wall and The Wall in Game of Thrones becoming a particularly significant piece of the plot.

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phenixcitywon2ƥ

fence, wall, what's the difference?

but i can't really rebut a half-baked notion that doesn't really draw out the causal analysis beyond "hey, did you know that a candidate announcing his platform for a 2016 presidential election actually wound up stating his platform at a totally normal time for political campaigns and it just happened to occur at the same time as a TV show?" other than telling you that it makes no sense and isn't actually backed up by evidence.

what if i told you Trump's wall idea resonated with the American people because of the legalization of same-sex marriage? Obergefell was announced in June, 2015 too...

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SlenderpmanOP44ƥ

The difference is the key icon of the wall in Game of Thrones. First off, the same sex marriage case has little to do with immigration and nothing to do with a border wall. As much as I understand this is all conjecture, there's more evidence pointing to this cause than there is to any other origin of the wall idea. If I wanted to make ridiculous claims, I could have just assumed Roger Stone and Paul Manafort and the rest of Trump's team are huge Thrones fans, but there's zero evidence pointing to that.

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phenixcitywon2ƥ

First off, the same sex marriage case has little to do with immigration and nothing to do with a border wall.

neither does a silly TV show based on a fantasy tome written by some fat guy 22 years ago. that is primarily watched by younger people who really aren't/weren't Trump's key demographic, by the way.

https://winteriscoming.net/2017/01/16/results-song-of-ice-and-fire-game-of-thrones-demographic-survey/

http://www.people-press.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/08/2-12.png

as you can see, 18-29 year olds were 58/28 for clinton/trump. it's 51/40 for 30-49 year olds.

coupled with the sub-18 year olds who cant vote, those two age bands roughly make up 98% of GOT viewers...

there's more evidence pointing to this cause than there is to any other origin of the wall idea.

what evidence have you provided, exactly?

as i'm trying to explain to you, a wall is a self-proving, organic answer to the "problem" that humans can intuitively and instinctively latch on to. the campaign rhetoric is and simply was "mexican illegals, bad, building a wall to keep them out is good. vote for me because i'll build it" it's overly complex to say "now, if you really think about it, white walkers are analogous to illegal immigrants and look how good the night watch was doing it's job. we can totes do the same thing along the rio grande, since we all know "summer" is coming. vote Trump!"

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[deleted]•

I think that you need to narrow down the exact level of influence that you are implying here in order for us to have a meaningful conversation?

Are you saying that Trump would not have campaigned on a border wall if game of thrones hadn't been on air?

Are you saying voters would have rejected the notion of a border wall without game of thrones?

What are the levels of influence, not coincidence, are you suggesting?

Historically, sections of the border have been fenced since 1994 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico%E2%80%93United_States_barrier#History), and it isn't as though illegal immigration isn't a go to topic for republicans.

By season 4, viewership had increased to nearly 20 million, a sizable fraction of US voters.

The U.S. population is 325 million people. By absolutely no stretch of the imagination is 6% a "sizable fraction".

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phenixcitywon2ƥ

By season 4, viewership had increased to nearly 20 million, a sizable fraction of US voters.

it's also likely a crap statistic.

6.84 us viewers average per episode in season 4, according to wikipedia. 20 mm is likely worldwide viewership.

but hey, they tweet too so QED.

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SlenderpmanOP44ƥ

Trump won with what, 40 million votes? I'm sure a sizable number of the ~80 mil voters and ~20 mil viewers are the same people. I'm not ruling out the possibility that the wall may never have been a main campaign staple had it not been for the popularity of GoT and I also think that the wall in GoT made Trump's wall more popular.

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[deleted]•

Trump won with what, 40 million votes?

No. He lost by 3 million. (https://www.google.com/search?q=2016+election+totals&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS754US754&oq=2016+election+totals&aqs=chrome..69i57.9216j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)

I'm sure a sizable number of the ~80 mil voters and ~20 mil viewers are the same people.

Sure.. But that's just conjecture and not evidence.

I'm not ruling out the possibility that the wall may never have been a main campaign staple had it not been for the popularity of GoT and I also think that the wall in GoT made Trump's wall more popular.

Ok. but... that really doesn't leave much to actually discuss does it? Because all that you have in support of your view is pure coincidence and conjecture with no actual evidence, and the only way you have to defend it is to say "Well, I'm not ruling it out."

I'm not ruling it out either, exactly. I think that it is entirely possible that there was some level of influence in as much as at least one person might have thought "Hey, they've got a wall in GOT! We should have a wall too!"

Which is why I think you really, really, really need to clarify what level of influence you are suggesting. so please answer my questions:

Are you saying that Trump would not have campaigned on a border wall if game of thrones hadn't been on air?

Are you saying voters would have rejected the notion of a border wall without game of thrones?

2
SlenderpmanOP44ƥ

I'm more so thinking the coincidental timing with a lot of emphasis on the GoT wall and Trump's anti-immigrant campaign means that there was some subconscious level of influence that convinced people who were already set on stronger borders that a big concrete wall was a good idea. I obviously can't say anyone made a direct link, but the answer to both of those bottom questions is that it's certainly possible and conveniently well timed enough to say that maybe the wall would not have been a campaign staple had Thrones not made it resonate more.

And on whether he won or lost, yeah I'm totally with you on the popular vote thing. He did technically lose. That doesn't really change my argument though and I could easily just say it was so close because people who would not have already voted for Trump did so because a wall was on their mind.

1
[deleted]•

Yeah, so if we're just blithely speculating on what is technically possible then there isn't anything to discuss, is there? Independent of rational thought or consideration of what is probable we can pretend that anything is possible!

Sure, it is certainly possible that a large number of reactionary conservatives, who have been primed and groomed for xenophobic, simplistic nonsense for 30+ years could have rejected the idea of a wall if not for a fantasy genre television show with a very niche audience. But is that probable? What is the actualikelyhood of that happening? Do you honestly believe, that if 6% of the country hadn't watched GOT we wouldn't be talking about a wall these days?

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Littlepush15ƥ

Ok but the wall in game of thrones is hundreds of feet tall and barbarians from the other side still manage to scale it and get over to the other side and Jon Snow who is supposed to be the audience avatar is essentially a border patrol guard who defects to them and joins their cause temporarily. This isn't particularly affirmative to many Trumpish ideas.

3
D-Rez1ƥ

I don't think there is much overlap between Trump supporters and those who watch GoT. If they don't watch the show, it's hard to see how meaningful the influence has on them.

According to this article, GoT is popular with the more built up and urban areas, that are far more likely to vote Democrat. The show appears not to resonate much with rural parts of the United States, that were more likely to have voted Trump.

3
SlenderpmanOP44ƥ

!delta. This and a few other comments have convinced me that the viewership doesn't align well enough with Trump's base for my theory to make sense.

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1
IlluminatusUIUC21ƥ

The "modern" inspiration for Trump's wall is Israel's wall, he has made that explicit. Trump's supporters may or may not have watched GOT, but many are aware of Israel's moves, as Israel is a common topic in the right wing media.

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keegan1120997ƥ

Your ignoring the fact that the story itself shows time and time again that the wildlings aren't villains and that if we don't help them the issues faced later when the Others come will be far worse. They'd be taking away the exact opposite message that the show is presenting. Hell, the author of the books is a classical feminist and his views permeate the entire story show included. I find very little overlap between Trump voters and and people who would enjoy a story largely about the metaphorical "other" and how thinking of different people's and families as your enemy only distracts us from real issues and perpetuates the cycle of hate.

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knowledgelover943ƥ

I don’t suppose trump supporters watch GoT though right?

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age_of_cage•

why?

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knowledgelover943ƥ

Trump voters were mostly uneducated working class people. Seems like GoT would go a little over their heads.

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age_of_cage•

I was hoping for something a little less ridiculously condescending but I am unsurprised.

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SlenderpmanOP44ƥ

As right as you are in saying that comment is unnecessarily condescending, the real point here is that Trump supporters and Thrones watchers don't tend to be the same demographic. I still don't necessarily agree though because of the pervasiveness of Thrones on social media.

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phenixcitywon2ƥ

mostly uneducated working class people. Seems like GoT would go a little over their heads.

lol. yes there's a lot of intellectual depth to incest, dragons, and zombies.

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knowledgelover943ƥ

There is a lot of intellectual depth to GoT. It’s very complicated.

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[deleted]•

[deleted]

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SlenderpmanOP44ƥ

I thought about that, and it's a good point, but I think social media would be a sufficient platform for spreading the knowledge of the wall in Thrones. Spoilers and reaction posts were probably next to hidden Russian propaganda on people's Facebook and Twitter feeds.

I'd also just challenge this idea in general. If Republicans appeal to wealthier people they'd also be capturing many HBO subscribers too.

1
Love_Shaq_Baby106ƥ

Trump voters skew older than the rest of the population. The only age demographics that have majority Trump support are 50+. GOT, on the other hand, is primarily viewed by young adults, your 18-34 demographic. That 18-34 demographic did not vote for Trump.

If Republicans appeal to wealthier people they'd also be capturing many HBO subscribers too.

But it's not a matter of being able to afford something, it's a matter of actually wanting to watch it. Older people simply aren't interested in GOT, or the fantasy genre in general, compared to younger consumers. And if you are in a demographic that doesn't like GOT, you friends on Facebook aren't likely to enjoy it either.

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SlenderpmanOP44ƥ

!delta. Thrones certainly can't influence people who don't watch the show. I was skeptical of this explanation but these numbers are hard to deny.

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