PIO Analysis of Main Event Hand - AA vs Turn Lead in 3bet Pot on J93T
Posted Jul 15, 2019, 12:05 AM UTC
4421
Pretty gross that you called 15k on the worst turn card you could see and then had to fold to the board pairing which is what you're hoping for on the river.
7
I agree it's pretty gross, but what I didn't fully appreciate at the time is that AA is actually near the bottom of our turn calling range vs an opponent with an appropriately balanced leading range. So in general, the worst hand you continue with on the turn will generally be a fold pretty frequently on the river.
In this case, we suspect villain is underbluffing the turn, so I think the bottom of our turn calling range should be QQ or KK
9
Nice one
5
Thanks for doing this. I love trying to understand these types of analysis videos.
However, I must be missing something with why the k of spades calls more against the unbalanced donking range. I get it with A of spades against the balanced range you fold more because you block more of his flush bluffs. However, with the unbalanced range it’s calling sometimes with the k of spades and always folding without it. You still gave him some bluffs with k10 suited, so why is having the k of spades good vs k of clubs bad?
5
This is a great question, and frankly I'm not sure. It's worth noting the difference in EV between KK w/ spades and KK w/o spades is only 300 chips facing this ~15k+ chips turn bet. One guess could be that KK with a spade will realize equity more frequently because our villain will have to shut down with some bluffs on brick spade rivers? That's my best guess. I can't imagine PIO is ever turning the KK with spades into a bluff on spade rivers, but if it ever did, that would be another advantage to having it on the river.
7
Thanks for responding. Your guess is certainly better than any reasoning I could come up with, which was none haha.
3
Since opponent's bluffs are KTs, QTs, and QJs in the node locked donking range, having KK with a spade unblocks more of your opponent's bluffs than having KK without a spade. (T of spades is on the board so KTss is no longer in opponent's range) Edit: also KKsx blocks one of their backdoor floats with KQss for the nuts on the turn.
6
wow that's a really astute observation, didn't consider that. Yeah i suppose not having a spade adds a bluff combo
3
Thank you for the analysis. This makes sense :)
2
Basically, it boils down to this. PIO doesn't want to call here w KK all the time right, it wants to mix. So when it looks at the six combos of KK to call with, it picks the ones that have the most equity against our opponents range. When we don't have the Ks, our opponent can have more nutted hands that we lose to. Having the Ks also means we can more effectively bluff catch rivers that complete fd's.
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TLDR; Our raw equity against our opponents range is slightly higher with Ks, so PIO will continue more often with those combos.
2
This was amazing
4
Awesome video mate :) keep up the good work!
4
Hi everyone! I've been struggling with off-the-tables studying recently, so I'm planning on making some 5-10 minute videos to document some of my PIO studying and lessons learned.
I decided to run one of the more interesting hands I played from day 1 of the main event last week. Yes, I understand it's not "good for the game" to release this kind of PIO content for free, but it's helpful for me to feel productive with the work I'm doing, even if nobody watches them. In the future, I think I want to keep these to under 5 minutes, but that was pretty tough for this hand without rushing through everything. If I get more than 10 views I will likely try to improve the quality/audio/etc for the future.
Great analysis đź‘Ť
I disagree that it's not good for the game to release this content for free.
I don’t totally agree with that either which is why I put it in quotes
this is good content. you do you.