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r/neoliberal•
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Forgive me for the lack of Biden but as a Canadian I am somewhat concerned

Forgive me for the lack of Biden but as a Canadian I am somewhat concerned

Posted Mar 9, 2020, 3:20 AM UTC

146
Versatile_Investor:nato: NATO•

What specific point are you trying to make?

9
FearThyMoose:montesquieu: Montesquieu•

In the 70’s people were predicting we’d run out of resources. Now we have a lot of oil and it’s super cheap

16
vaerme•

Some people always did, but regarding this specific study it's - to some extent - a strawman.

In 1972, the Club of Rome’s infamous report ‘‘The Limits to Growth’’ [Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L.,Randers, J., Behrens_III, W. W. (1972). The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind. Universe Books, New York] presented some challenging scenarios for global sustainability, based on a system dynamics computer model to simulate the interactions of five global economic subsystems, namely: population, food production, industrial production, pollution, and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. Contrary to popular belief, The Limits to Growth scenarios by the team of analysts from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology did not predict world collapse by the end of the 20th century. This paper focuses on a comparison of recently collated historical data for 1970–2000 with scenarios presented in the Limits to Growth. The analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compare favorably with key features of a business-as-usual scenario called the ‘‘standard run’’ scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st century. The data do not compare well with other scenarios involving comprehensive use of technology or stabilizing behaviour and policies. The results indicate the particular importance of understanding and controlling global pollution.

TURNER, G. (2008). A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change, 18(3), 397–411. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.05.001

https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/ffodzd/forgive_me_for_the_lack_of_biden_but_as_a/fjzq9bz/

edit: quotes

3
roachmilkfarmer:eu: European Union•

Came here to verify if this was the point of the original post.

I fear some people might miss it.

1
ohisuppose•

Huh?

5
vaerme•

The Limits to Growth

In 2008, Graham Turner of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) found that the observed historical data from 1970 to 2000 closely match the simulated results of the "standard run" limits of growth model for almost all the outputs reported. "The comparison is well within uncertainty bounds of nearly all the data in terms of both magnitude and the trends over time." Turner also examined a number of reports, particularly by economists, which over the years have purported to discredit the limits-to-growth model. Turner says these reports are flawed, and reflect misunderstandings about the model.[12]:37

In a 2009 article published in American Scientist titled "Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil", Hall and Day noted that "the values predicted by the limits-to-growth model and actual data for 2008 are very close."[38] These findings are consistent with the 2008 CSIRO study which concluded: "The analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compares favorably with key features ... [of the Limits to Growth] "standard run" scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st Century."[12]

In 2011, Ugo Bardi published a book-length academic study of The Limits to Growth, its methods and historical reception and concluded that "The warnings that we received in 1972 ... are becoming increasingly more worrisome as reality seems to be following closely the curves that the ... scenario had generated."[39]:3

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

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