What do you think we'll see in the next two weeks?
An explosion of cases? Mass public events like the Easter Show in Sydney cancelled? School closures? Areas quarantined?
Maybe something else - spread continues to be slow, testing remains restricted, everyone hanging out at the footy together?
Will we have regular toilet paper supplies back by then??
Posted Mar 12, 2020, 10:38 AM UTC
I'm hoping that school closures will be announced
☝🏻Second this
Hazmat ambulance just seen in a residential street in Newcastle. So outbreak here almost guaranteed in next two weeks.
Where abouts?
Princeton Ave, Kotara *Edited from St to Ave
Jesus.. That's only a few blocks from me. :(
Scary it's so close. There was a Hazmat ambo and a normal ambo.
Near me too. My uncle had an investment property in this exact street.
Yay, also from Newie...
The Universities won’t closed until they are forced to, they are all crying poor at the moment and are waiting for census day so the students can’t claim their money back when shutdown happens
whatever, as a student I would rather an extra year, an extra debt that nana dying.
I'm from Redcliffe QLD and I'm part of a FB page for the local community. Someone posted a poll about it with three options:
My thoughts after reading that post? We'll be fucked in 2 weeks time.
australia so isolated so delay in getting that bad
I think we’ll hit over 250 cases by the end of the weekend and over 1000 within a fortnight.
I think NSW schools will close a week early before school holidays.
I think NSW Health facilities will start to see the effects of many sick people presenting to ED’s- not the overwhelm that Italy is experiencing, but the start of the first big wave.
I think the Easter Show will either go ahead or be cancelled at the very last minute.
I think people will continue to be fuckheads and buy all the toilet paper.
I think there’s going to be an increasing air of fear, tension and low grade panic.
Panic won’t help us. Trying to keep myself from going there too.
With scummo as pm I’m predicting they close everything but when it’s too late
I expect the same from everyone in gov, no matter which country, and it's simply due to how they are structured and their priorities
I'd be likely to be right more than I am wrong by taking this stance, exceptions like singapore are rare
I think Scomo will encourage us to adapt to the virus rather than try and prevent it - particularly if the rest of the world isn't trying to prevent it either.
I mean, what difference can we make? We're only 1% of global Coronavirus cases. Anyway, if we don't spread it, someone else will.
Edit: [Well shit, this just got posted in r/australia. Great minds think alike? ](https://chaser.com.au/national/morrison-says-no-need-to-act-on-covid-19-as-australia-only-contributes-1-of-infections/)
lmao that's gold :)
I don't. Morrison was the first government leader to name a spade a spade. Don't let politics cloud your judgement.
My prediction is that we will see 1000+ cases by the end of March (I've tried a number of different curve fits using the daily Australian counts and the website https://mycurvefit.com/, then plotted out the equations in Excel - every single prediction is well over 1000 cases by 31st March).
I suspect some schools may close a few days to a week before the school holidays. I do not expect the majority to resume from school holidays in mid-April, though.
If La Trobe University's behaviour with the first detected case at Bundoora campus is anything to go by, the universities will continue on their merry way until clusters occur and they are forced to shut down.
There will continue to be supermarket shortages as the panic and chaos increases, with people trying to buy up as much as they can.
I am not expecting an Italy-like situation in the next few weeks (if at all, hopefully), as there are some cultural and geographical differences which means the virus will hopefully be a bit slower to spread here (as well as our age and medical demographics giving us a slight advantage). See https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/fgnb60/why_we_should_not_be_drawing_comparisons_between/
Chiming in with the university responses- UQ in Brisbane had a case on campus last Thursday and Friday, was announced as confirmed COVID on Tuesday... Everything still open, business as usual.
how many dead by your numbers? That is more reliable than infected since many are asymptomatic.
Since there have only been 3 deaths, I don't have enough datapoints to make any meaningful predictions at this time. Even the case numbers are small enough at the moment to have a great deal of uncertainty in predicting 2-3 weeks out.
Considering there's infections in Sydney that has no epidemiological link.. yeahh it's spreading. Bigger companies will start asking their employees to work from home, if not already.
Dad and brother have been setting their home setups past week. Mum cant, shes in customer service.. but she's expecting to only have a skeleton crew remain to just keep the ship sailing at work since sales have dropped quite hard.
Got my setup all ready. Just waiting for the call to wfh.
Think these cases will spike next week. NSW jumped 12 today. Double our usual jumps of ~5.
It's getting started.
What is your setup?
basically my gaming PC that i can plug my laptop into.
Ohhh... A good investment for downtime!
Doom and gloom. Commonwealth Government well out of their depth. State Governments unwilling to draw a line in the sand and put life ahead of economics. Lots of death, some preventable and some not. Following death will be a global depression the likes of which we have never seen as the USA the worlds largest economy gets smashed. Even potentially a global shift in power as a new power emerges from the ashes. Nothing particularly positive on the horizon.
That’s heavy.
Unfortunately I am in agreement with you, all downhill from here.
What type of 'new power' do you see emerging?
The issue for Australia is we can shut the door. We can make everyone stay home. The problem will be for how long. USA doesn't have it under control. Trump said "Scott told me it would be over by end of April". I assume this is Scott Gottlieb who has been in the media. Everything the Trump administration has said and done makes me think they want poor and old people to die. Trump has said he wants to raid Social Security, which is like a forced savings plan for retirement in USA. So unless we shut the door on USA then I am not sure doing anything else will make a difference to our numbers and our prospects.
Italy
This is from a construction company I sub for
MEMORANDUM | CLIENT, CONSULTANT & SUBCONTRACTOR To: From: Date: Subject: Clients, Consultants & Subcontractors Directors 10 March 2020 Coronavirus (COVID-19) Kane Guidelines The health and safety of all Kane employees, clients and subcontractors is of utmost importance. Kane is committed to playing our part in reducing the risk of people being exposed and containing the spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19). If you or your employees are attending Kane offices or sites we request that you comply the following guidelines:
Should be interesting to see what their take is in two weeks...
I’m waiting for them to cancel NRL games like they cancelled NBA. I think we’ll see 400 cases by the end of the weekend and then an explosion of cases within the week. In reality schools should be closed now but I reckon they’ll wait until the end of term and extend holidays.
I think they will shut schools before the holidays.
Fingers crossed. Here’s hoping there’s enough wine to gets us through 🤪
Italy
I think it will be a longer Easter school holidays for my kids.... I have a feeling we will get to the school hols with periodic schools closing and reopening. Australia will drag this out far more than other countries. It will be a partially controlled plane crash landing not like the bomb that went off in Italy.
Heard through the grapevine some big companies are instituting work from home as of tomorrow, company wide. If it’s accurate, good on em. Don’t wait for the government to tell you to do it.
My husbands in a large Melbourne based company. They have a large number of employees testing the working from home capacity of their system this week so that they can ensure it will manage the increased load so that they can release employees hopefully by sometime next week to all work from home if they want to, it’s amazing that they are willing to do this ahead of government - huge relief for us as I don’t want my husband continuing to commute on the train daily anymore
Same!
I have seen 3 ambulances today, Western Sydney.
That could be for anything, not just Coronavirus cases (unless the parameds are wearing the protective equipment)
How far West, if you don't mind me asking?
1st 2 instances near St Marys, 3rd instance in Penrith.
When they close doors to the AFL , do you think it’ll sink in then?
kminder in 2 weeks
Toilet paper back already. Got a pack of 24 the other day. Anyway, Woolies and Coles are rationing that and other essentials.
Schools likely to be shut first. I think we are 2 weeks behind Italy so we should shut next week.
Absolutely Easter Show will be cancelled. We just need to tweet them how stupid they are to go ahead.
Testing will ramp up.
That Australia will still not take it seriously. The country will be split between healthy young spreaders with a sniffle living their best lives, and families with serious cases/ front line health workers all getting increasingly desperate. Schools will get an extra few weeks of holidays which won’t send the right message, the (Easter) Show Must Go On. The desperate half will realise we’ve been sold out to save the economy. ScoMo will make some horrendous statement about nurses ‘wanting’ to work overtime.
God this is sickeningly true
I'm already waiting for this. Overtime + without proper PPE, like the firies having to buy their own masks as well.
If we pay the nurses, then they won't be volunteers.