[World] Computation Biologists Simulation Tool predicts ~1,000,000 Deaths in USA by July, 2020 assuming "Moderate Mitigation"
neherlab.org/covid19/Posted Mar 19, 2020, 10:23 PM UTC
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My rights! Give me freedoms or give me death! /s
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Covid: Hold my beer
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COVID: Hold my corona
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I think in a society where people care for one another, we wouldn’t need a strong government taking draconian measures. But alas we are a society where no one cares about each other as much as about themselves.
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We live in a society.
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Human beings are human beings.
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Your giving us too much credit, you ever seen people park without lines on the ground, or form a line where there isn’t an barrier. It’s a shitshow.
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Covid: as you wish..
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Pursuit of happiness, liberty, and life. US has had priorities of Dec. Of Independence reversed for awhile now.
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Not too sure, but has complete lockdown of the US ever happened before?
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There is nothing anyone can do. No amount of help will solve this.
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It is accurate. Even suppressing it wouldn’t do much at this point.
800,000 to 1 million deaths is more than Spanish flu.
People need to realize the gravity of this situation. It’s bad.
There have been studies showing even if we worked tooth and nail to try to get this done it still wouldn’t work!
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We are risking the collapse our country if we try to control this through extreme measures. The road to hell might paved with good intentions... I can't even pretend to fully know but this idea needs to be honestly explored.
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We will be under a completely lock down very soon likely 2 days to a week
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The U.S. is far more mobile than China. Driving an hour or two commute for work or to visit family, or just to shop is not uncommon. Driving around is just an accepted part of life in the U.S. Flying for business or pleasure is also much more common.
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Mostly because they can't afford to close.
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Damn I got 1.6 million in today's numbers this is bad
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There is no way that the US can afford to have us all shelter in place for the next few months. Even with $1000 a month cash payments it won't be enough. Riots will break out.
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Most likely... I see an ugly scenario taking shape if things take a sharp turn for the worse.
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Read some comments from right wing wackos and you will see you are right.
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Several people in my local area are already complaining about restaurants being closed.
I see Americans en masse protesting 'shelter in place' orders by the end of March. This won't and can't last for months on end. The country will burn before May.
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You people get off to this shit I swear to god. This is what spreading hysteria looks like and it’s sick that it’s upvoted.
We better prepare for the worst, I agree. But gtfo with this “The country will burn before May” fear mongering bullshit. It doesn’t help.
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Thank you.
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In retrospect he was kind of right bro
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I know how humans think. We can all amuse ourselves with Netflix and video games for a few days, maybe a couple of weeks. After that as we edge into the pretty months of spring and summer, minds will turn towards neighborhood BBQ's, and trips to the beach.
People will get bored, and they will get tired of eating at home and not socializing at their favorite pubs. When that happens, and the government says 'No. You must shelter in place until we decide otherwise.' then people will begin to disregard the orders and curfews.
Shelter in place will last for as long as people will tolerate it. Eventually, death toll be dammed, people will want to live their lives again. If you deny them, they'll defy any prohibitions even harder.
That is disgrearding any economic impacts of a long-term shut down.
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Yep in rural areas people will revolt if they tried to do this for long. Our town hasn't had any real shut down and people are pissed! I'm sure it will get us all sick who knows... we also got our meth powered super spreaders.
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It's easy for people to think that way right now, when there have been a handful of deaths and most of us look around and see nothing but healthy people. Have you seen the videos coming out of Italy? When it's friends, relatives, and neighbors that are suffering and dying alone it becomes a lot more real. God help us, we're not far from that happening.
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Over 2.5 million Americans die annually. Am I to assume that this means 1,000,000 additional deaths?
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No. You have to remember many of those that will die are the same people that would also die from other causes. The deaths will go up, but it's not a 1:1. Like what I'm saying is that the 85 year old who would die from a heart attack in 5 months can't do that if they die from the virus in a month.
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That last sentence reads like a “taps head” meme
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"Can't have a heart attack if your already dead from Corona"
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There is a pattern in other pandemics where initially mortality skyrockets but then is somewhat suppressed for a while after. I believe you can find studies of the 1918 flu regarding this.
I think people are fixating too much on the death ratio in general. We could possibly see a whole segment of the population with long term health consequences who are not all particularly old or unwell.
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Wait what, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the 1918 Spanish flu completely opposite to what you said? The first wave mostly affected vulnerable people and mortality rate was pretty low, same as seasonal flu. Cases reported started to get fewer by the summer but then September hit and it mutated to a much deadlier form, killing young people also, and only then mortality rate skyrocketed (killed ~20 million in total iirc, most of which comes from the second deadlier wave). My source comes from history channel (watched quite a while ago) but I believe you can find much more of them by searching for peer reviewed research that discuss the mutation of Spanish flu
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I believe this was looking at the period after the final major wave of infections, not in between. I looked for the reference but I can't find it immediately.
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I’m fearfully curious what the long term health effects of younger people are going to be in the next few years.
20% lower lung function is absolutely devastating and will eventually end life early
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Once we hit health care collapse, it won't just be those who are already vulnerable dying. When is that anticipated to happen? A few weeks?
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I believe our current goal nationally is to avoid healthcare collapse as best we can. It would be preferential to not have to make decisions based on triage. An example, KY hospitals are refusing to schedule elective surgeries. Also, the invoking of the war powers act to mobilize the production of much needed medical supplies - gloves, masks, iv solutions, medications, and vents - should help reinforce the medical front that is about to be slammed by numerous admissions.
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A goal without a plan is just a dream. Winging it piecemeal isn’t gonna cut it.
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Collapse of the American healthcare system was estimated at ~30,000 cases, until we are in a Italy like situation. Currently I believe we are at ~10,000 cases sooooooo
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Two weeks away then...
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But those people who are on their death beds are already practicing a form of social isolation and may become infected at a lower rate than you're assuming. Obviously weakened immune systems factor in to a degree in the other direction too, so I think it's tough to say overall.
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It's not tough to say overall except for the total number. It's just simple logic and is back up by history. Look at Italy's numbers the other day, half of their deaths had been 80 year olds with 4 or more underlying conditions.
And then you have to look at what things like decreased travel is going to do in regards to things like car accidents.
Now, on the otherhand one needs to worry about frequently treatable things being unable to be cared for by hospitals during this time.
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This is not counting the avoidable deaths , do you imagine having a heart attack, surgical emergency , car accident and hospital being overrun with coronavirus patients, your chance to die will increase dramatically.
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I'm not a scientist, but I think mostly, yes.
This tool simply simulates the number to die as a result of a covid-19 infection.
Presumably, some of those predicted to die from a covid-19 infection would have been destined to die by some other cause within the same year, but overall those deaths are mostly covid-19, according to my understanding.
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I know this is a sick question, but what do you think the average additional expected lifespan is for potential covid-19 fatalities?
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Are you asking how long it will be until the people who will die, will die?
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Yes. From an actuarial perspective.
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Ha! I wondered the same thing. It's really hard to say to be honest, so your guess is probably as good as mine. Given that the tool predicts the rate of deaths to hit its peak in around the beginning of June, leaving 7 months until the end of the year, and if you predict in a non-covid year, more people die in the winter months, the answer I found in my ass says the answer to your question is 3 months.
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yup
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RemindME! July 1, 2020 "~1,000,000 dead"
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RemindMe! Six months
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I will be messaging you in 3 months on 2020-07-01 00:00:00 UTC to remind you of this link
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My calculations predict 800,000 dead by June 2020 in USA with 85% probability at r0=2.5.
An additional 150,000 dead might happen if civil unrest occurs .
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Maybe you should add all the deaths occured from other morbidities than covid19 because they couldn’t get treated in the upcoming chaos...
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Set to Moderate Mitigation, the tool predicts ICU Overflow to begin about 5 weeks from now.
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Those are the same numbers I read from a mathematician 2-3 weeks ago. The link may have been posted here (twitter).
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I think I know the one you're talking about, female mathematician? It was very well thought out given there was substantially less data to work on at that point.
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R0 is much higher than that, IMO. Closer to 3.3-3.5.
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R0 drops with containment/mitigation
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I think the RO is much higher then the 1.2-2.7 being belted by the media. Also need to look at latency being a larger factor as well as viral shedding that can be overlooked. Also what’s your thought on the “superspredders” with a potential to infect up to 10 or more?
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How did you make those calculations?
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Do your calculation include additional deaths due to collapse of the healthcare system as well? And thanks for running the numbers
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Looks like this summer will be fun.....
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RemindMe! 07-01-2020
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Usa and UK racing for highest death toll. Taking their special relationship to a new level.
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And trump twitterd this day before WHO called it a pandemic !
Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump·22hSo last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!
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Remindme! 4 months
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RemindMe! July 1, 2020 1mil deaths
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Yes I knew that.
Spanish flu.
What did I say to everyone? You don’t like to hear the truth.
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RemindMe! July 1, 2020
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I don’t see a million as being at all an unreasonable number. 3-4% mortality with a strong health system; which we will soon not have.
April, May and June will forever change the fabric of this country. Most of the deaths will occur then. By July hopefully habituation to the risk and supplies catching up will slow the deaths with the worst of this slowing down by September.
The amount of people that will die not from the virus but simple stuff is so tragic. These fools out on spring break are literally killing people
We need leadership not finger pointing
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You’re pulling 3-4% out of your ass. Based on confirmed positive tests, the numbers right now are 0.4%.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
There are obviously hundreds of thousands, if not millions or untested positives, making that denominator much larger. Of course, there are also unresolved cases, many of which will result in death.
This is unquestionably a severe public health crisis, but the dialogue on reddit basically turning this into doomer porn, rather than a source of good information.
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RemindME! July 1, 2020
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Well, that’s a comforting thought......