Basically I’m looking for a handful of tickers that will probably go up as all the other stuff goes down...if that makes sense.
Outside of that I’ll probably have cash on hand and maybe money in...gold?
What do you guys think would be the best play here assuming there really is a bubble that’s gonna burst?
Posted Mar 20, 2021, 7:01 AM UTC
Every time a thread like this pops up, I’m more confident the Bull run continues. Lol
😂
There is an upcoming crash?
If you think about it there's always a crash coming
Lol
Yesno
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Tobacco stocks like MO, PM, and BTI.
Why tobacco?
Huge dividends and inflation resistant due to significant pricing power. They’re the opposite of hyped, unprofitable tech stocks.
I like my tech stocks unpopular and profitable, am I doing it wrong?
Because when the chips are down, a smoker is always a smoker.
They pay a good dividend yield too and the price doesn’t fluctuate much.
Uvxy, vxx, spxs, sqqq
Yea, I was going to say UVXY. I only make money on puts because of mean reversion though. Calls have always been duds.
I’ve heard people losing a lot of money on uvxy. I’ll prob get some far away calls or shares just in case but won’t go crazy
Yea, you can do that. It's just a lot easier to predict volatility going down than going up, at least in my experiences.
I've also recently been closing off and consolidating a lot of my positions in preparation for the bubble bursting. However, I'm not taking the approach of trying to find stuff that will go up during the next big correction. I'm positioning myself to buy the dip.
All in all, I wouldn't worry too much about a huge market correction at least through summer. The economy is picking back up, the vaccines are launching, stimulus package benefits are rolling out, the Fed has inflation and unemployment under control'ish, and right now there's a lot of liquidity floating around the equities markets.
At least through the summer, I have a sizable portion of my portfolio in oil and energy. There's a lot of potential in that sector because they still haven't completely recovered from COVID. So I'm not super worried about them taking a hit if we get hit with a surprise correction. Never forget black gold!
What’s the benefits of those guys?
They go up when shit goes down.
^ this. I’m prob going to get into a little uvxy and vxx in case this bubble ends soon as people are predicting.
you could stop limit buy vix derivatives
How would that work/benefit me exactly?
When the market is volatile and VIX goes up by a certain amount, your account automatically buys a position in an ETF carrying it or derivatives of it. If the position you buy into is proportional to the equity value of your account, it will counteract the losses in your equity position with gains in your VIX position, which you can sell when you estimate the market has started to bottom out.
The problem with this is either that you use leverage to buy the position, which comes with broker interest, or you hold unused cash equal to the equity value of your account.
All hedging comes with some form of compromise.
SQQQ?
What’s that
Inverses NASDAQ 100
There are stocks that can do that. NLY went up 2001 and 2009 when everything went down. It’s a good stock with a great dividend. But it went down 2020 with the rest of the market. So I‘m not sure you can count on it to go up EVERY crash.
Along with the volatility etfs pointed out you can go nuts with leveraged bear etfs as well like ERY, LABD, TZA, TQQQ, SPXS...and my fav right now...FAZ.
Cheers.
TQQQ is not bear?
Your right meant sqqq* thank you sir
👍
So basically buying any of these just means I think the markets gonna crash?
Sell at highs and buy at lows! When is that? Ask god maybe.
OP knows a crash is coming, guys. Just tell them which stocks only go up, don’t worry about the ones that will go down.
Genius.
Well duh silly that’s my point!
the best way to protect yourself is avoid chasing trends and pay attention to valuation. everything tends to revert to the mean, so you want to avoid too much exposure to over-valued stocks.
here's an example, about how history repeats itself.
my wife and I both have the Dodge & Cox stock fund in our 401k plans. DODGX. it's a large cap value fund dating back to the 1960s. Dodge & Cox has a very good reputation in the business, they've been around since the 1930s and are widely respected in their niche. Jack Boggle of Vanguard singled out Dodge & Cox as one of a handful of active managers he would recommend. they're conservative (in the best sense), had reasonable fees and a long-term planning mindset, and were employee-owned so the company's goals lined up with customers.
when the Dot-Com bubble happened 20 years ago and everyone was chasing trendy tech stocks, Dodge and Cox didn't buy any of the high-flyers. why? those stocks were crazy overvalued, and they buy only fairly valued or under-valued assets. so DODGX lagged the market for a few years. but when the Dot-Com bubble crashed, DODGX came back with a vengeance and outperformed the market averages for a while.
the same thing happened this year. 2020 was a banner year for growth funds. DODGX lagged. but this year, it's the strongest performing fund in either of our 401ks.
like Warren Buffett says, you can't time the market but you can know today if something is fairly valued or not.
This is valuable information. Thank you.
Isn’t there an etf for exactly this?
What’s it called?
Can’t remember but there is an inverse etf that goes up when the market goes down
O mighty conch shall i invest Generic Money Exchange certificates
It says yes, sadly it doesn't say which one
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What’s this one
[deleted]
Track how much u ll lose trying to time the crash (time decay, premium) versus how much u would actually lose during the crash... Unless u are really lucky, the first thing will be much higher cost
What do u mean exactly? That sitting on cash waiting for it you'll miss out on gains? Like if it goes up 15%, it wod need to crash more than 15%, and u time the bottom perfectly, to gain anything over just investing now? I have ~20% cash right now and have been debating this
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If you are sure of the crash. Why not short the market?
You remember that saying "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"? A crash can happen tomorrow or next week, but at the same time next year or much later.
This is the reason all the bear ETFs mentioned here are only good during a crash, not when you have a feeling things may go sideways.
Develop an investment policy statement which includes your risk tolerance and desired asset allocation. Set it. Follow it. In good times and bad.
There is no known way to fully avoid the swings of the market with any kind of accuracy. People like Jim Cramer have made well timed calls and made careers out of them but mostly it is dumb luck.
Stay diversified, stay invested with a long time horizon and you will be fine. I started investing in 1999 with small contributions and have been through both 2001 crash and the 2008 crash.
Time in the market is more important than timing the market.
By what crashes? Just look at what happened in March and previous crashes. Over complicating it.
This is a question for the all mighty magic 8 ball.
All hail the 8 ball.
Can I have one too?
It’s working it’s magic as we speak! On my way to the moon.
I don’t have one :(
Well if you figure out what’s going to go up when everything else goes down let me know!
I got you fam.... http://www.ask8ball.net/