[Update] Retail users own at absolute MINIMUM 138 million shares

EDIT: I'm going to make another post eventually, but after removing the 500-1000 and >1000 groups and tallying the results of both polls, the results are within 1% of one another.

This is update to this post https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwziwn/users_of_superstonk_own_at_minimum_9_million

Here's the original poll: https://www.strawpoll.me/42979202/r

Here's a new poll that will hopefully address some of the shortcomings of the previous poll: https://www.strawpoll.me/44432640/r

If you could answer that'd be amazing, but otherwise that's fine. I want to see the results of this poll and compare it to the results of the previous poll to see if there is any significant difference in the results.

TL;DR assuming 6 million retail buyers with average shares purchased being 23, all of retail owns at minimum 138 million shares.

READ THIS FIRST! PROBLEMS WITH THE POLL:

1. I didn't add a 0 option. This means that I made the assumption that 227,565 people here purchased GME. This is a bad assumption. I've accounted for it in later calculations, but be aware of it.
2. The poll is based in r/Superstonk. Users here are more likely to own higher amounts of GME shares than other retail owners.
3. As this is an opt-in poll, it is subject to manipulation, trolling, and bias. Because the requisite questions ask for a quantitative measurement, the chance for bias is minimized. The number of shares you personally own shouldn't change.
4. The sample size is just over 500. This is valid for an educated estimate, but the actual values shouldn't be taken at face value. The margin of error assumed on this sample size is 4%. For this type of study, this is acceptable. But without at least 1000 or, better, 2000, we can't be 100% confident in the results.

To attempt to account for the issues presented, I have done two things: firstly, after calculating the final values, I subtracted the top two (500-1000 and >1000) fields from the final total. This was meant to reduce manipulation and superstonk buying bias that would inflate retail ownership. In addition, after calculating the shares per person, I halved it to assume that only 100,000/200,000 people here actually bought GME. This means that the poll represents 100,000 people.

 

With that being said, here's the updated poll numbers.

Group	Number of respondents	Percentage
1 to 5	17	3.256704981
6 to 10	28	5.363984674
11 to 15	34	6.513409962
16 to 20	31	5.938697318
21 to 30	29	5.555555556
31 to 50	63	12.06896552
51 to 100	91	17.43295019
101 to 500	160	30.651341
501 to 1000	33	6.32183908

1000 | 36 | 6.896551724 Total | 522 | 100

We can see here that, of people who responded, the largest category was the 100-500 with over 30% of respondents owning shares in this range. Very surprising - I didn't expect this level to be so high.

Now, assuming all 200,000 people purchased GME:

Group	People in Population	Shares Min	Shares Max
1 to 5	6513.409962	6513.409962	32567.04981
6 to 10	10727.96935	64367.81609	107279.6935
11 to 15	13026.81992	143295.0192	195402.2989
16 to 20	11877.39464	190038.3142	237547.8927
21 to 30	11111.11111	233333.3333	333333.3333
31 to 50	24137.93103	748275.8621	1206896.552
51 to 100	34865.90038	1778160.92	3486590.038
101 to 500	61302.68199	6130268.199	30651341
501 to 1000	12643.67816	6334482.759	12643678.16

1000 | 13793.10345 | 13793103.45 | 13806896.55 Total | 200000 | 29421839.08 | 62701532.57

Assuming 200,000 superstonk people own stock in GME, the value is between 29-62 million shares. But, if we want to predict overall retail ownership, we also have to assume that superstonk users own more than normal. Lastly, because of possible trolling or other manipulation, the highest values may be skewed. To account for this as best as possible, I've subtracted the 501-1000 and >1000 categories from the final result. So,

Total 200,000 = 29421839 - 20127586 = ~9,294,253 and 62701532.57 - 26450574.71 = 36,250,957.85

Then at minimum, assuming 200,000 superstonk users currently own GME, the number of owned shares is between 9-36 million. I also mentioned that we can't assume 200,000 superstonk users purchased GME. Instead, let's assume 100,000 did. Redoing all the calculations, we end up at ~ 4647126.437 - 18125478.93 shares owned by superstonk users at minimum.

This would mean that, at minimum, the average number of shares owned by retail would be around 23 shares. This is simply 4647126.437/200,000 =~23.

Now, how many retail buyers are there? I estimate 6 million. The reason for this is that it fits within the number of people subscribed to WSB, and it also fits in with the values found in a yahoo poll here: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-amc-reddit-investing-213609595.html. In the poll, they predicted 9% of americans purchased GME. Half were predicted to have sold, with an additional third of that half also selling. So 200,000,000 adults over 18 X 0.09 = GME buyers / 2 X 0.06666666 = ~ 6 million people.

Estimating total retail using these figures is, at minimum: 6,000,000 X 23 = ~138,000,000

Honestly, I've tried to be unfair against my data. Every time I could, I bet against it. And even when I was unfair against it, I still get a number that is stupidly high. Support for 21-23 average shares has also been seen here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mxrdcb/updated_dd_i_did_the_math_there_is_literally_no/ and here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mxkwlb/double_the_short_interest_half_the_anxiety/

If there are any other things I've forgotten/assumed that would inflate the retail ownership, please tell me! And if you have any criticisms, I'm all ears! And it's your choice to buy or sell - I'm too stupid to make those decisions for you.