NBA LAYER CAKE: ranking teams in the 20-25 range
At this point in the offseason, it's still too hard to come up with a clear and confident differentiation between teams. It may be easier to lump them together in "tiers" instead. Over the next week, we'll try to sort out those layers.
But since that's still an inexact and sloppy science, we'll equate it less like a perfect layer cake and more like Rachel Green's trifle from Friends. It's muddled, it's messy, but it's something we're going to try and dig through anyway.
We already went through Tier 6 and now we'll take one step up.
######TIER 5: ALL JAMMED UP / WAITING TO GEL
In the second-lowest layer of her trifle, Rachel put some jam. And as we know, jam can go other way. When it's mixed properly, it can be quite delightful. If it's poorly constructed, it can be wonky or congealed. For all the teams in Tier 5, it's still TBD whether they've got the right formula or not.
(25) SACRAMENTO KINGS
last year: The Kings are still trying to build upon their success (relative success) when they went 39-43 two seasons ago. But in Luke Walton's first two years on the job, they've gone 31-41 and 31-41. On the bright side, they did set some records. On the downside, it was for having the worst defense (117 points per 100 possessions) in history. Somehow, Luke Walton is still going into Year 3.
losses: Sacramento parted ways with quite a few rotation players (backup PG Cory Joseph, backup C Hassan Whitside, backup PF Nemanja Bjelica) but none of them played more than 25 minutes per game. More notable were the players who stayed: Richaun Holmes returned in free agency and Buddy Hield hasn't been traded (yet.)
gains: One year after drafting PG Tyrese Haliburton in the lottery, GM Monte McNair tripled down on the position with Davion Mitchell (Baylor.) Presumably, they view Haliburton as more of a SG in the long term. Vet Tristan Thompson will replace Whiteside as the backup down low, although it's hard to consider that a needle mover.
projected record: The Kings haven't shaken up their roster yet, so any improvement will have to come one of two ways: a) development of young players, and/or b) better health. Aside from Buddy Hield, all their best players missed 10+ games last year, and Marvin Bagley III missed 20+. Of course, more Marvin Bagley won't help their league-worst defense any. And while Davion Mitchell has a reputation for a defensive stopper, it's hard to have a great defense if you're going small with a 3 guard lineup. There's raw talent here to chase .500, but not much reason to suggest they'll finish better than 35-47. GM McNair may need to figure out the right mix for this team to level up.
(24) SAN ANTONIO SPURS
last year: After the messy Kawhi Leonard situation, Gregg Popovich and the Spurs made the decision to stay competitive and plug away for the playoffs. It worked that first season, but the team's gone 32-39 and 33-39 over the last two years, leaving them in NBA purgatory. They ranked in the bottom 10 in terms of offensive rating and overall SRS power rankings.
losses: Realizing they needed to fully embrace the rebuild, the Spurs let DeMar DeRozan leave. That will create a major hole on offense, as DeRozan averaged 21.9 points and 6.9 assists per game. Mainstay Patty Mills is also gone, but that may not be as big of an absence as the Olympics will have you believe. Mills plays in 68 games, but only averaged 24.8 minutes and 10.8 points last year. Fellow rotation player Rudy Gay (21.6 minutes, 11.4 PPG) has also moved on. Notably, all three of those players were over 30.
gains: The Spurs are going young, but there's not much evidence they're going for a full-on tank. They signed Zach Collins and Doug McDermott, the latter of whom has become one of the most underrated players in the league. Last season, McDermott averaged 13.6 PPG on a 63.5% true shooting percentage. You can argue that he's a better player than former Spur Davis Bertans. Rookie Josh Primo (Alabama) is very young and doesn't protect to be an impact player right away.
projected record: The young Spurs appear to have a good foundation with guards Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, wings Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson, and big Jakob Poeltl. Still, it feels like a solid supporting cast that's one star away from returning to the playoffs. DeRozan's absence will present the opportunity for a player like Murray (who averaged 16-7-5) to take that mantle, but I'm just not sure Murray has the scoring chops to represent a serious threat to defenses. Overall, I'd figure the Spurs will finish about 36-46 and miss the playoffs for the third straight season.
(23) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
last year: Despite adding veteran Ricky Rubio and # 1 pick Anthony Edwards last year, coach Ryan Saunders' Minnesota Timberwolves didn't look any better, leading to his dismissal in midseason. Exec Gersson Rosas made the unconventional decision to bring in an outside hire (Chris Finch) right away rather than wait for the offseason. Finch improved the team, although that may have arguably cost them a few lottery balls and ultimately lost them their pick to Golden State in the process. Overall, the team finished 23-49 with a bottom 5 ranking in SRS, offense, and defense.
losses: Rubio is gone, although that's the only real notable loss from last year's roster. The guard started 51/68 games last season, averaging 8.6 points and 6.4 assists. PF Jarred Vanderbilt is a restricted free agent whose fate hasn't been determined yet.
gains: Forward Taurean Prince arrives via the Rubio trade, although he's likely a rotational player more than a starter. More than anything, the T-Wolves will be counting on better health as their differentiator. Last season, D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Karl-Anthony Towns each missed 20+ games.
projected record: Most fans will be focused on the upside of lovable Anthony Edwards, but I'm hopeful to see a fully healthy and engaged Karl-Anthony Towns as well. In his first four seasons, Towns missed a grand total of 5 games. In the last two seasons, he's missed 51. People may have forgotten exactly how good this KAT is. He's legitimately one of the best shooters ever for his position, hitting 39.4% of his threes for his career. If he can keep that going while Edwards slices through the lane, this team could be dangerous. I'm also a big fan of Chris Finch as a coach. The timing of the hire was bizarre, but Finch's resume was the best out of any coaching candidate this cycle. With a half season under his belt, he should have the Wolves ready and raring to go. The team will need either Jaden McDaniels or Vanderbilt to become a reliable starter to hit their true ceiling, but in the meantime I still think they can go 37-45 this year.
(22) NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
last year: The New Orleans Pelicans were disappointing once again (31-41) despite Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram staying healthy for most of the year. The fact that veteran Stan Van Gundy couldn't get them to play better than the # 22 ranked defense is troubling, and part of the reason he was let go after only one year on the job.
losses: EVP David Griffin clearly wanted to shift the supporting cast around his two stars. In fact, all 3 of their other starters (Eric Bledsoe, Lonzo Ball, and Steven Adams) have left the building. Rotational player James Johnson is gone, and high-end rotational player Josh Hart's fate is still TBD.
gains: The switch from Steven Adams to Jonas Valanciunas may not seem significant because they're both big ass centers, but Valanciunas definitely has more of a scoring touch. In fact, he averaged nearly 10 more points than Adams did last year (17.1 to 7.6) and flashed some budding stretch potential with 0.9 3PA a game. The team will also look to replace Lonzo Ball with two veteran guards. Devonte' Graham is more of a spacer (who shot 8.5 threes a game for Charlotte) while Tomas Satoransky has switchable size at 6'7". First-round pick Trey Murphy III is aptly named after shooting 40% from three in college; there's a hope the big wing shooter can be their version of Cam Johnson.
projected record: This season will be a referendum on David Griffin. I don't want to say "the emperor has no clothes" here, but the police are outside the courtroom ready to arrest him for indecent exposure. He came to New Orleans with a great reputation (mostly thanks to LeBron James being born near Cleveland), but hasn't shown much of a grand plan with the Pelicans so far. He traded away his veteran PG in Jrue Holiday and then allegedly tried to acquire a veteran PG like Kyle Lowry a year later; he acquired Steven Adams and then traded him away a year later. It's fair to wonder if Griffin knows what the heck he's doing as a team builder. The key to his reputation -- and New Orlean's season -- may hinge on third-year guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Alexander-Walker is a big guard at 6'6" and has shown more a nose for the basket than Lonzo Ball ever did (averaging 18 points per 36 last year.) If NAW can emerge as the team's third star, the Pelicans may all click together. If he disappoints -- or if Williamson gets hurt again -- this could be a trainwreck that Griffin won't survive. I'm writing in 38-44 here, although there's sizable boom/bust potential.
(21) WASHINGTON WIZARDS
last year: After trading for Russell Westbrook, the Wizards got off to a brutal start (5-15) before rallying to make the playoffs with a 35-39 record. The late season surge wasn't enough to save Scottie Brooks' job, as new coach Wes Unseld Jr. was hired to take the reins for his dad's old franchise.
losses: The Westbrook experiment ended, for better or worse. It's debatable whether Westbrook is still an All-Star caliber player or not, but he certainly put his stamp on the team. That's 22-11-11 that will have to be distributed through the rest of the roster. Backup PG Ish Smith is also gone.
gains: Replacing Westbrook will be a committee effort. PG Spencer Dinwiddie will take up most of minutes, but SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, and Montrezl Harrell are all legitimate rotation players that should help the depth of the roster. Rookie SF Corey Kispert may also be ready to contribute now. He's a 4-year college vet who was the best shooter in the draft class. The team has had depth concerns for what feels like a decade now, so that surplus of rotation-level talent should be a welcome change of pace.
projected record: The Wizards are playing a dangerous game by not trading impending free agent Bradley Beal, but it actually makes some sense to me. Beal is well positioned for a monster statistical season, and he'll soak up a lot of the credit if this team makes the playoffs. It's not ridiculous to think he could make All-NBA first or second team if that happens. And if it doesn't and the team's floundering, they can pivot and trade him at the deadline for a decent return. I'm more optimistic than most on the fit here, especially if Coach Unseld finds the right formula in the frontcourt. Harrell puts up stats and so does Thomas Bryant (returning from injury), but third-year big Daniel Gafford may be the best fit for a team with defensive concerns. I'm penciling in an optimistic 39-43, but it may be hard to make a dent in the playoffs unless one of their young forwards Rui Hachimura or Deni Avdija become a reliable 3-point shooter and take some pressure off their guards.
(20) CHARLOTTE HORNETS
last year: The Charlotte Hornets outdid expectations last year, starting with Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball (who averaged near 16-6-6 across his 51 total games.) The Hornets jumped out to a 27-24 start to the year before injuries hit and some cooling off occurred. They finished 33-39 and lost in the play-in tournament. If there's any concern, it's that the team's advanced stats (-1.9 point differential, 23rd in SRS, 22d in offense) was worse than their record. That's the third year in a row that Coach James Borrego's team has overachieved based on those stats. Some analysts would suggest that's due for a regression, while some would call that good coaching. The Hornets must think it's the latter, because they gave Borrego a contract extension.
losses: Starting PG Devonte' Graham will exit after averaging 14.8 PPG last year. Some Hornets fans may be happy to pack his bags. After his breakout season, Graham's flaws (lack of size/defense and lack of success inside the arc) have been more pronounced. Other familiar faces will be gone, including Cody Zeller and Malik Monk.
gains: Charlotte will replace Graham and Monk with more size on the perimeter, highlighted by lottery pick James Bouknight (UConn) and free agent Kelly Oubre. Both can be solid scorers, although efficiency may be murky. Cody Zeller will be fittingly replaced by Mason Plumlee, another white dude who's the best of his litter. Rookies Kai Jones (Texas) and J.T. Thor (Auburn) may also get more playing time as the season wears on.
projected record: The Hornets are on an upward trajectory -- not just with their stars, but also with young starters like Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington (both entering their age-23 seasons.) Still, their chances of making the playoffs will come down to a few major factors. Most notable: how good can LaMelo Ball be in Year 2? Based on a natural progression and extended opportunity, he may be able to crack averages around 22-7-7 this year. If that's the case, he may be an All-Star candidate. That said, there's some concern that his shooting efficiency may regress; his true shooting percentage declined from 56.1% to 49.6% after the All-Star break. For Ball to shake that off and get back on track, he'll need a healthy Gordon Hayward to take some defensive attention away. Hayward played well prior to his own injury and had an All-Star case himself. If everything goes right, this team could be a breakout success. But as a natural skeptic, I'm not counting on everything going right. Flirting with .500 and finishing around 40-42 sounds fair.
Posted Aug 10, 2021, 3:31 PM UTC