Lesson Learned: Wait for Revenue
A stock isn't cheap if the fundamentals aren't there. With $2mil in annual revenue, MMAT is still trading at 400x revenue. Even at these "cheap" prices under $3, the stock still has a 8000:1 price to sales ratio. The largest price/sales ratio Tesla ever had is 30. If you think it is rational behavior to buy this stock because it is cheap, I have a bridge to sell you. I am a bagholder with a $4.08 average and I am never going to buy a stock without fundamentals ever again. Thank you for the lesson.
Posted Aug 17, 2021, 6:25 PM UTC
2536
It takes investments to build revenue and fundamentals. If no one ever invested in a company with little revenue we may not know some of the tech we take for granted today. I appreciate your conservative investing philosophy but many of us are not building our thesis on current revenue, we are looking for a diamond in the rough at rock bottom prices we can grow with. 35 days on the NASDAQ is not a lot of time, I am not worried at all.
The point he's making here is these aren't "rock bottom" prices, $3/share is actually incredibly expensive. None of us would be here if we didn't believe in the long-term potential of this company, but evaluating it on the fundamental characteristics of its balance sheet, MMAT is one of the most expensive stocks available for purchase on the NASDAQ.
My only point is, what is a rock bottom price? I thought we were rock bottom several times in the last month and I averaged down significantly, but breaking below $3 today woke me up that "rock bottom" for a company with skewed fundamentals might actually be "delisted". I am confident that in 10 years this industry will be profitable because the market for metamaterials will exist. Today there is no market for metamaterials and if you were to ask this sub why they hold the stock, half of them would mention some kind of short squeeze (when the short interest is under 10% lmao) or a cabal of manipulating hedge funds.
Ultimately I am just fishing (wishing?) for signs that I won't keep losing money on this and that some kind of revenue stream that would support this valuation is coming in 2022.
I guess for me personally, the non rare earth semiconductors is the biggest reason why I can ignore current revenue. With the world wide shortages of semiconductors if they can step in and fill the void they will be very profitable. And that is just one of the verticals. I don't think they can be delisted. Too much cash on hand and stuff growing. I'm not worried about. I'll just keep averaging down and scooping up as much as I can for however long it takes. I say rock bottom because once it starts to lift off it is never coming back down in this range again. I consider that anything from $10-$1. I'll keep buying as long as it stays there.
I see this on the sub all the time, but do you have any kind of source that Metamaterials are involved in the manufacture of semiconductors? I feel like people have conflated the fact that Nanoweb can substitute for ITO in some uses with semiconductor production, or that it means they can make semi-conductors without rare-earth metals. You would think that if they could do something like disrupt the entire semi-conductor industry with unheard of manufacturing techniques that replace a geopolitically strategic supply chain, it would be a little more prominent on their website.
Holy shit someone who can think independently. Good luck trying to discuss anything with the circlejerk that is this sub now.
George himself responded to the following post on stocktwits and it was all fluff. Even he didn't have a good answer. I agree there is nothing there.
"Can you explain how this is suppose to help MMAT get into semiconductors? Metamaterials have nothing to do with semiconductors. Neither does Nanoweb. Also; My understanding is nanoimprint lithography, which rolling mask lithography is a subdiscipline of, has so far been a failure in this field. To give an example; Canon has been failing for years to use nanoimprint lithography to make flash memory. Flash memory is pretty much the easy mode in semiconductor manufacturing because it's just floating gate MOSFETs in a repeated NAND or NOR architecture. Fairly simple as far as these things go, yet still; Failure.
A more general point of suspicion for me about MMAT; Where is the evidence that MMAT can scale up production of anything metamaterial related any better then Echodyne, Kymeta, HRL Laboratories, Canon, DNS, etc. etc? Is it just RML? That's not exactly cutting edge. Are people really betting MMAT is going to revolutionize the field with a 10 year old patent all of a sudden? Can anyone anywhere link to anything that's shows MMAT has made any advancements past what was in the original patent for RML by Rolith a decade ago?
If you read the original patent the only real difference between RML and traditional nanoimprint lithography is they are using rollers instead of plates. I have a hard time believing all those other companies have failed to revolutionize the world because the answer was just "use rollers instead of plates lol"
As of now this whole company seems rested on nothing but hype and a giant "Just trust me, bro" from George.
Seriously, I want the bull retort to this."
What sector are we listed under on the NASDAQ?
Going off straight revenue is true but a company also has cash value in assets. In this case it is over valued, but not by as much as you state here. Maybe fair cash value is around 1-1.50. Biopharma companies trade for years with no revenue and net losses.
Mmat has clearly set up for production on a large scale. Several of their products have realized and proven uses. They might need industries to adopt them, but look at the production dynamic changing around you, they will eventually need them.
Of course it’s still highly speculative but in the case of mmat it’s way more than just ideas on paper.
This is the way